Tagged: Tony Sanchez

Prospects: Catchers

AAA: Tony Sanchez

Backing up Tony Sanchez this season in AAA will likely be some combination of Lucas May, Ali Solis and Brian Jeroloman. All of three catchers are past their prospect days but should an opening arise in the majors it is possible one of them could get the call. As for Sanchez his prospect stock has took a hit down to the point where he is no longer widely consider the Pirates top catching prospect (Battling Bucs still gives him the slightest of edges though) but he still does have some upside and could be a useful major league catcher as early as later this season. Sanchez’s defense was said to be good when he was drafted and that remains the case; his game calling is also improving which means he looks to be a very capable receiver at this point in his career. The question is as it always was his bat. Sanchez recovered some last season from a terrible 2011 but his offensive numbers were still a disappointment. In order to move forward this year and show he still might be able to develop into at least an averae MLB starting catcher his offensive game particularly his power will need to make great strides.

AA: Carlos Paulino

Paulino will serve as the regular catcher in AA and be backed up primarily by Charlie Cutler. Kawika Emsley-Pai and others may play at the level as well but barring an injury it is likely to be sparingly. At this point in his career Paulino is essentially an extreme version of Sanchez. His defensive game overall is a little better than Sanchez’s but his bat is worse. Paulino’s defense alone has what it takes to make him a backup catcher in the majors but if he is ever going to have a shot at being a starting catcher he is going to have to show he can hit some. Paulino has hit fairly well in the past posting good numbers in 2011 but he struggled last season when he was forced to repeat A+. Now as the unquestioned starter in AA this is Paulino’s time to shine.

A+: Jacob Stallings, Elias Diaz

Stallings and Diaz are expected to split catching time in A+. Like Sanchez and Paulino these two catchers are noted more for their defense than their offense. Stallings was drafted last year by the Pirates in the early rounds mainly as an attempt to save cap space for making a run at Appel. He comes from the NCAA holding the single season record for throwing out runners attempting to steal. The Pirates are aggressively pushing him over regular A ball and straight to advance. This is a typical move for advanced college hitters but Stallings is not one of those. His offense will likely struggle but it is going to have to be his defense that carries him anyway. As for Diaz the Pirates seem to really like him but up to this point he really hasn’t shown much progress as a hitter. Like all the other catchers discussed so far he is going have to show some improvements with the bat to see his prospect stock rise.

A: Wyatt Mathisen

At this point I’m not really sure who will back up Mathisen but the Pirates are not short of options as the lower levels are filled with a ton of catchers (non prospects of course). Mathisen is a horse of a different color in this catching crop. He is widely considered to be the Pirates top catching prospect (Battling Bucs has him 2nd just slighly behind Sanchez) with his biggest weakness being his defense. Mathisen is really just becoming accustomed to the catcher position having played the majority of his high school career at the shortstop position. His bat is advanced for a high school player and his defensive game has shown flashes of potential but with this being a relatively new position to him there is still a lot to work on. The main challenge for Mathisen in 2013 will be just adjusting to being a full tiem catcher.

Lower Levels: Jin-De Jhang, Daniel Arribas

There was some talk the Pirates might consider moving Jhang to A ball with Mathisen and having them continue to split time between catcher and DH but that doesn’t appear to have happened. Jhang will start the season likely in short season ball. Like Mathisen, Jhang is relatively new to catching and has a lot of work to do to get the mechanics of the position down. His bat is strong for a catcher though and makes him an interesting prospect to watch. Arribas has played catcher, 1st base and 3rd base in the DSL but appears to be focusing entirely on catching right now. Arribas shown some hitting talent in the DSL last season and was moved up to the states this year. He will likely share catching duties in rookie ball this season as he adjusts to his more permanent position home.

Top 5 Catching Prospects

1. Tony Sanchez

2. Wyatt Mathisen

3. Jin-De Jhang

4. Carlos Paulino

5. Jacob Stallings

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2013 Expectations: Upper Level Prospects

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Top Prospects

At the very top of my personal top Pirates prospects list the Pirates have a group I call the top 6 and a group I call the next 6. Two of the top 6 prospects and 1 of the next 6 prospects will be beginning the 2013 season either in AA, AAA or perhaps the major leagues. The two top prospects are of course Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. The next 6 prospect is Kyle McPherson. Cole is likely to garner the most attention and will likely start the season out in AAA but with a few adjustments and a strong start to the season he could see Pittsburgh fairly early on. Big things are expected from Cole and I fully expect we will see him in Pittsburgh come June or July. Cole may be the ace the Pirates are sorely lacking but it is not realistic to expect him to be that right out of the gate. I expect his major league time to be solid but lacking the elite quality we all will hope to see. Taillion should start the year in AA with a chance for a mid season promotion to AAA. I have high hopes that 2013 will be the year he unleashes his full arsenal and starts putting up the dominant minor league numbers we all hoped we would see. McPherson is competing for a major league rotation spot this spring but barring injuries I see him starting the year in the AAA rotation. McPherson will definitely get some time in the majors this season and I would like to see him perform well enough to earn a 2014 rotation spot. I think McPherson has the upside of a solid middle of the rotation starter and I have reasonably high hopes he will take the first steps towards establishing himself as one this season.

Hitting Prospects

The Pirates upper levels aren’t exactly brimming with hitting talent. The top prospects are probably Tony Sanchez, Adalberto Santos, Alex Dickerson, Gift Ngoepe and if he is promoted to AA Mel Rojas Jr. Sanchez I have already discussed this is a pivotal year for him to have a solid season in AAA and in the likely event of one of the Pirates two catchers suffering an injury this season I would expect Sanchez to be a candidate to be called up to the majors. My expectation is Sanchez will have a solid but not great year in AAA and struggle offensively during any brief major league stint. Santos, Dickerson and Ngoepe I could see all starting in AA this season. Santos has a case to move up to AAA but the crowded outfield will likely hold him back. Hopefully one or more of these three will show something this season that lets the Pirates believe they could be contributors to the 2014 team. My expectations aren’t really high for any of them as I expect Dickerson’s numbers to be solid but again not where they need to be for an all bat player, Santos to regress from his good contact ways and Ngoepe to show only minimal improvement with the bat. The remaining hitting prospects with some intrigue are Ivan De Jesus, Matt Curry, Clint Robinson and Carlos Paulino. De Jesus, Curry and Robinson should start the year in AAA and could be called upon to serve as major league depth this season. Of the 3 my expectations are the highest for De Jesus who I think could develop into a nice middle infield utility player.

Pitching Prospects

Outside of the top 3 pitching prospects I discussed the Pirates have a bunch of interesting arms projected to begin the season in one of the top two levels or the major leagues. Bryan Morris, Justin Wilson, Andy Oliver, Phillip Irwin and Victor Black are all very intriguing arms with some degree of chance of making the major league squad but most likely for all except Morris and possibly Wilson they will start the season in AAA. I have previously discussed Morris and Wilson so I’ll focus on the other 3. Oliver to me looks like another Justin Wilson type project who the Pirates will try to fix his control this season. Irwin has the look of a crafty righty with a know how to pitch and a good enough arsenal of pitches where he could be an effective back of the rotation starter. Black has the makings of a late inning shut down reliever but needs some fine tuning before he gets there. My expectation is that Oliver won’t show much improvement with his control and will wind up in the bullpen and the other two will show positive signs of improvement and I wouldn’t be shocked if either or both of them spent a fair amount of time in the majors this year. In AA the pitching talent is a little less deep outside of Taillon but two guys I’ll be watching are Stolmy Pimentel and Casey Sadler. With this being Pimentel’s last option year I expect the Pirates to move him to the bullpen and Sadler shown enough the Pirates are likely to keep him starting but I think they see him as a reliever long term. I don’t have high hopes for Pimentel this season but I think Sadler will show enough promise the Pirates will add him to the roster at the end of the season. There are a bunch of other semi-interesting pitching prospects in the upper levels but the 4 that catch my eye are Duke Welker, Brandon Cumpton, Tyler Waldron and Hunter Strickland. Welker and Strickland are on the 40 man roster and will need to show something to prove they belong there. I think Strickland will surprise people but my expectation is that Welker will struggle. As for the other two I think both will be converted to relief roles this spring to see if either is worth protecting from the Rule V draft this upcoming offseason. I suspect one of these two will wind up being the Pirates yearly surprise addition to the roster.

Prospects To Watch

I already mentioned that I think De Jesus, Waldron and Cumpton are a couple under the radar names to keep an eye on but I want to dig a little deeper and mention a few players who look like organizational players at this point who interest me. Jared Goedert is having a solid spring and while I don’t expect a whole lot out of him if he hits well in AAA he could get a chance in the majors and I think he has a chance to find a niche there as a good pinch hitting option. Michael Colla has flown under the radar but he has had moderate success at essentially every level. He could potential earn a chance to pitch as a middle reliever some time this season. A few other players I plan on keeping an eye on down in AA are Justin Howard, Kelson Brown and Tim Alderson. Howard is a 1st baseman with limited power but a pretty good knack for making contact. The Pirates have tried using him in the outfield some and with no real option to man 3B in AA I wouldn’t be shocked to see him trotted out there. If he can manage to be competent defensively in the outfield and third base his good contact ability could gain him some traction as a potential bench option down the road. Brown is the type of player who is solid in all aspects of the game but wonderful in none. He plays multiple positions, makes decent contact, shows a little power and is sound defensively. However he does none of those things at a high or low level. He has been fairly successful at every level and as I said with Howard the opening at 3B provides him with a chance to get some playing time and if given a chance he could surprise some people. Alderson has been written off by nearly everyone at this point and with very good reason but he is still relatively young. The last two seasons he has shown progress in converting to a reliever and a more finesse pitcher. He isn’t ever going to become what the Pirates hoped they were acquiring when they traded Freddy Sanchez for him but maybe there is enough talent left in him to develop into a marginal relief prospect. Now for the standard disclaimer my expectation of the players I discussed at length here is that they will continue on their path as organizational guys but of that group the names I noted I believe have the best chance to surprise in 2013.

Projecting the AAA Roster

Predicting minor league rosters can be a tricky exercise because there are often a lot more options than there are actual spots. The Pirates have roughly 35 players per level who it would make sense to assign to that particular team but obviously you can have 25 at a time. Now at some point during the season it is possible, even likely, that all the players will appear but when talking about original assignments that is not the case. With that disclaimer aside I am going to give my best approximation of what the Pirates minor league rosters will look like this upcoming season. For the record when filling out minor league rosters I go with the standard 8 starters, 5 starting pitchers and 7 relievers. The bench is made of a DH, backup catcher, reserve infielder, reserve outfielder and a utility player.

Catcher

Candidates: Tony Sanchez, Ali Solis, Lucas May

Analysis: The starting catcher is an easy one to peg here. Barring an injury on the major league level Tony Sanchez will start the year in AAA and serve as the regular starting catcher. There is little to no debate about this. Now who will be his backup is a bit more uncertain but it appears likely that it will either be Lucas May or Ali Solis. May has more experience in AAA and even in the majors and Solis is the better defensive catcher. Both will likely spend some time in AAA this year and are probably the 4th and 5th options to see time in the majors should a slew of injuries occur.

Prediction: Tony Sanchez

Infielders

Candidates: Matt Curry, Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Jeff Larish, Anderson Hernandez, Ivan De Jesus, Brandon Inge, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Chase d’Arnaud, Jared Goedert, Alex Valdez, Jeremy Farrell

Analysis: That is a lot of bodies for 4 starting infield positions. Chances are two of the above players will be on the major league bench, currently I have Harrison and Mercer projected to be there so they can probably be safely dismissed. As far as prospects go the only ones listed above are Curry, Robinson, De Jesus and Mercer and those 4 are more fringe prospects than anything. The Pirates could opt to go a lot of different ways here and at this point it is difficult to figure out just what the plan is.

Predcition: Matt Curry (1B), Ivan De Jesus (2B), Brandon Inge (3B), Chase d’Arnaud (SS)

Outfielders

Candidates: Alex Presley, Jerry Sands, Felix Pie, Darren Ford, Brad Hawpe, Adalberto Santos, Brett Carroll, Andrew Lambo

Analysis: Some of the infielders could come into play here as well as players like Larish and Goedert have some experience in the outfield corners, however I think the Pirates have enough depth where that is likely not to be an issue at least with the starting roster. Alex Presley and Jerry Sands are candidates to start the year in the majors so if they don’t they will almost certainly get starting jobs in AAA. The only prospects in the above list are Santos and Lambo and both of them could use some more time at AA although I would prefer to see Santos pushed to AAA. The Pirates glut of right fielders makes this a crowded group and the Pirates will have to sort through it before the season begins.

Prediction: Felix Pie (LF), Alex Presley (CF), Jerry Sands (RF)

Bench

Analysis: All of the above candidates who I did not project on to the roster are candidates to be part of the AAA bench. Five players in all will make it with one serving as a semi-regular starter at DH. There are still a bunch of names left so it is difficult to say just how this will go but chances are there will be a backup catcher, backup infielder and backup outfielder with the other two spots either going to utility guys or to someone ton handle the DH spot. There are a lot of ways this could go as well.

Prediction: Clint Robinson (DH), Lucas May (C), Jared Goedert (IF), Darren Ford (OF), Matt Hague (U)

Starting Pitchers

Candidates: Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Colla, Brandon Cumpton, Phillip Irwin, Andy Oliver, Justin Wilson, Brooks Brown, Stolmy Pimentel

Analysis: Once again we have a lot of bodies for a very limited number of spots. Some of these pitchers are candidates to make the majors and some are candidates to start in either the AAA bullpen or AA. Currently I have Locke and Sanchez making the major league squad so I will remove them from the discussion. Chances are any of the Locke, McPherson, Sanchez trio that doesn’t make the majors will be a SP in AAA and chances are so will Cole. With my current prediction that leaves three spots open to the rest of the group that includes some interesting prospects in Irwin, Wilson, Oliver and Pimentel and some fringe starter types in Mazzaro and Gomez.

Prediction: Gerrit Cole, Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson, Andy Oliver, Phillip Irwin

Relief Pitchers

Candidates: The above group, Victor Black, Duke Welker, David Bromberg, Erik Cordier, Kyle Waldrop, Mike Zagurski, Roman Colon, Jeff Inman, Kris Johnson, Ryan Reid

Analysis: I’ll be honest with you there is no way in the world I can try to accurately judge what a minor league bullpen is going to look like so I’m not going to pretend I know anything here. What I’m going to make is just a guess and really nothing more.

Prediction: Victor Black, Duke Welker, Brandon Cumpton, Kyle Waldrop, Vin Mazzaro, Mike Zagurski, Kris Johnson

Projected Roster

C: Tony Sanchez, Lucas May

IF: Matt Curry, Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Ivan De Jesus, Chase d’Arnaud, Brandon Inge, Jared Goedert

OF: Felix Pie, Alex Presley, Jerry Sands, Darren Ford

SP: Gerrit Cole, Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson, Andy Oliver, Phillip Irwin

RP: Victor Black, Duke Welker, Brandon Cumpton, Kyle Waldrop, Vin Mazzaro, Mike Zagurski, Kris Johnson

2013 Expectations: Catchers

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Russell Martin

What can we expect from the Pirates big free agent splash of the 2012-13 offseason? Martin should undoubtedly be a better backstop for the Pirates than Rod Barajas was in 2012 but that is setting the bar a little low. Over the last 3 seasons Martin has seen his K% rise and his OBP drop every season. Even at the age of 30, these are worrisome signs as catcher typically age a little faster than most other players. Martin has kept a fair amount of value over the last two years despite the increase in his K% and decline in his OBP because of his increased power, notably in the form of his home runs. Unfortunately some of those were likely a byproduct of the hitter friendly Yankee stadium he played his home games in. On the positive side though Martin was a little unlucky last season with a low BABIP of just .222 so there is reason to believe his average and by extension OBP will rebound some in 2013. Defensively Martin is solid but not spectacular; he is noted as a good pitch framer and if one trust those metrics he should be a nice boost to a Pirates pitching staff that routinely had borderline calls go against them. Martin’s offense overall has been around league average for a catcher the last few seasons and it is not unreasonable to think he can stay at or at least near that level for 2013. As far as throwing out would be base stealers Martin is nothing special in that area, posting a 24% caught stealing rate which is almost identical to what Rod Barajas posted in 2011. The Pirates are said to be reworking their strategy of not having pitchers focus on runners at all so that should Martin and really all Pirates catchers some in 2013. Bottom line I’m expecting Martin to give the Pirates roughly average production both offensively and defensively from the catching position. I see him settling in as about a 2.5 WAR player while posting an OPS in the area of .700 (.325 OBP, .375 SLG) and throwing out roughly 18-20% of base stealers

Michael McKenry

McKenry had a fine offensive season in 2012 fueled by a surprising display of some power. The solid offensive showing and the fact that h e was only terrible at throwing out would be base stealers (as opposed to historically awful) made it a little surprising he did not assume more of the starting catcher role as the season wore on. McKenry was the Pirates best catcher in 2012 but make no mistake he is not a starting catcher. McKenry’s surprising power surge in 2012 was more likely a result of a small sample size than it was of any real breakout. Despite the fact that McKenry’s offensive numbers are likely to regress in 2013 he should still remain a solid backup catcher as he is a good defender and can hit at least a little bit. His defense is overrated by some segments of the Pirates fan base but it is very solid. Overall the Pirates should still feel comfortable using McKenry on a semi-regular basis in order to ease the burden put on Martin. I expect McKenry will likely receive around 50-70 starts in 2013 depending on Martin’s health and the performance of the catchers behind him on the Pirates depth chart. I’m expecting McKenry to receive around 200-250 PA this season, while being roughly a 1.0 WAR player and posting an OPS of approximately .670 (.300 OBP, .370 SLG).

Tony Sanchez

This upcoming season should see Tony Sanchez make his major league debut. He has the reputation of being a strong defender with a questionable bat but some power. Sanchez is the Pirates third catcher and will likely be the first player called up from the minors should an additional catcher be needed. It is difficult to say just how much he will play in the majors this season because Martin and McKenry have shown to be relatively healthy players and a reasonable expectation is that neither of them should perform poorly in 2013, meaning Sanchez may have to wait a while before ultimately getting a chance to make an impressions. I have Martin pegged for between 90-100 starts and McKenry ticketed for anywhere from 50-70, that doesn’t leave a lot of room for Sanchez. My predictions for the other two catchers leave about 10-20 starts for Sanchez as a max so I am not expecting him to get a ton of time in the majors but he is going to have to make good use of the small window he receives. Sanchez will start the year in AAA and I’m expecting to hit better there although still not great. I see him in AAA posting a slash line of roughly .260/.340/.400. To some that may sound optimistic but I feel that is rather reasonable. I’m also expecting him to show some strides defensively as that is what will really carry him. In the majors I’m expecting him to struggle in the limited chances he gets I could see him being about a .3 WAR player and posting a .220/.280/.340 stat line in his limited opportunities.

Summary

To summarize I’m expecting Russell Martin to be roughly a league average catcher both offensively and defensively for the Pirates, I’m expecting McKenry to see a drop off in his offensive production but still be a respectable backup catcher and I’m expecting Sanchez to have a solid showing at AAA but struggle in his limited big league opportunities. For 2013 the catching position for the Pirates looks around league average to me and in reality if they can get that it will be a significant improvement from where they were last season.

Top 10 Hitting Prospects

1. Gregory Polanco

Grade: B+

Position: CF

Expected 2013 Level: A+

Bio: Polanco was signed by the Pirates as an international free agent in 2009 for the small sum of $75,000. His career started off slowly as he really did very little, aside from being a great base stealer, to stick out during his first three professional seasons. That all changed in 2012 though as Polanco displayed all of that five tool potential he was said to possess. Polanco has some real power in his bat and has so far kept his strike outs under control also he has the speed and range necessary to stick in center field for the long haul.

2. Alen Hanson

Grade: B+

Position: SS

Expected 2013 Level: A+

Bio: Hanson was an international free agent signed by the Pirates in 2009 for $150,000. Some say he was a consolation prize for the Pirates failure to sign Miguel Sano. In 2011 Hanson had a solid showing in rookie ball during his first year in the Unites States so the Pirates pushed him to A ball in 2012. Hanson broke out in a big way absolutely crushing the ball for the first few months of the season. He did cool down a little but was still hitting at a high level. Hanson has an oustanding bat and has decent range at the shortstop position but some scouts question whether he has the arm to stick at the position but either way his bat will play.

3. Josh Bell

Grade: B

Position: RF

Expected 2013 Level: A

Bio: Bell was drafted by the Pirates in the second round of the 2011 draft straight out of high school. He was said to be a tough sign and proved so as the Pirates gave him a 5 million dollar signing bonus, a record for a non first round pick, to break his commitment to Texas. Bell is said to possess great power and is probably the Pirates best power hitting prospect in the system. The Pirates aggressively pushed Bell to A ball in 2012 but he suffered a knee injury early in the year which ended up costing him most of the season. Bell has the athletic ability to stick in the outfield but if his knee proves to be a problem he also has the power to move to first base.

4. Barrett Barnes

Grade: B-

Position: CF

Expected 2013 Level: A+

Bio: Barnes was drafted by the Pirates in the 2012 draft with the supplemental pick they received for losing Ryan Doumit. Barnes is a center fielder but some scouts question whether he has the arm to stick there but even if he doesn’t stick he has some good power potential and good speed so a shift to left field should be no issue. Barnes also shown good plate discipline in his college career which will offset any potential problems he may have with keeping his average up. The Pirates started him off in A- in 2012 and he got off to a slow start but really heated up and finished the year with a very solid line. THe Pirates like to push advanced college players to A+ in their first full professional season so Barnes will likely go there but with Polanco also there he will probably be forced to slide over to left field.

5. Dilson Herrera

Grade: B-

Position: 2B

Expected 2013 Level: A

Bio: Herrera was an international free agent signed by the Pirates in 2010 for a signing bonus $220,000. The Pirates started him off in the VSL in 2011 and he played very well with the only knock being a few too many strike outs. The Pirates aggressively promoted him to the states for 2012 and he continued hitting well posting a .823 OPS in rookie ball. Herrera was originally announced as a shortstop but really doesn’t have the range or speed to play there so the Pirates have been using him as a second baseman, which is a position he should have little trouble handling going forward. He has shown flashes of power, decent speed and average plate discipline. Herrera is a popular pick to break out in 2013.

6. Tony Sanchez

Grade: B-

Position: C

Expected 2013 Level: AAA

Bio: Sanchez was drafted by the Pirates with the 4th overall pick in 2009. He was definitely an overdraft but the Pirates felt none of the other players (mainly high school pitchers) really stood out so they went with a safe first round choice and went with tough signs in later rounds. The strategy hasn’t worked but that is another story. Sanchez’s pro career actually got off to a great start in 2009 and 2012 but then he got hit in the face with a pitch and broke his jaw. He has not really produced good numbers since then. Sanchez doesn’t have a big upside but he looks like a relatively safe bet to be a productive major league catcher. He is strong defensively behind the plate and has a little bit of power in his bat. He profiles as at least a strong backup and if his bats develops he could be an average starting catcher.

7. Wyatt Mathisen

Grade: B-

Position: C

Expected 2013 Level: A

Bio: The Pirates selected Mathisen with their second round pick in the 2012 draft. He was drafted as a catcher but because of his athletic ability actually spent most of his high school career as a shortstop. Mathisen has very little experience behind the plate but he does have the tools needed to become a solid defensive catcher and he also has a good bat which makes him the Pirates best hope for a strong two-way catcher. Mathisen started the 2012 season in rookie ball splitting time between catching and DHing. He showed a good arm throwing out 36% of would be base stealers and also hit fairly well. The Pirates have a tough choice with Mathisen as to whether to push him to A ball to begin the year or hold him back to A- and give him more time to develop as a catcher.

8. Alex Dickerson

Grade: C+

Position: 1B

Expected 2013 Level: AA

Bio: Dickerson was the third Baseball America top 50 draft prospect drafted by the Pirates in 2011. Dickerson fell to the Pirates in the third round of that draft because teams were concerned about his back but Dickerson can no doubt hit as he won the Big 10 triple crown as a sophomore. He played outfield in college but really didn’t have the defense to stick there so the Pirates moved him to first base where they are hoping he will realize his power potential and have the bat to stick at the position. The Pirates started Dickerson off at A- in 2011 and he hit well but as an advanced college player that was to be expected. The Pirates pushed Dickerson to A+ in 2012 and once again he hit well but he really didn’t show much power which is a bit concerning for an all bat college prospect. Dickerson did nicely adapt to first base however and the power is still there he just needs to realize it.

9. Jose Osuna

Grade: C+

Position: 1B

Expected 2013 Level: A+

Bio: Osuna was signed as an international free agent by the Pirates in 2009 for $250,000. He was signed as an outfielder by the Pirates have been slowly transitioning him to a first baseman and that is the position he played all of last season. Osuna showed some good power in the VSL during 2010 which earned him a promotion to the states in 2011, there he continued hitting well. The strong performance in rookie ball caused the Pirates to aggressively push him to A ball in 2012 where he put up a solid hitting line while showing good improvement defensively at first base. Osuna had pretty much an average year except for one fairly long hot streak in June. He didn’t dominate the level in 2012 but he played very well for a 19 year old at the level so the Pirates will almost surely move him up.

10. Willy Garcia

Grade: C+

Position: LF

Expected 2013 Level: A

Bio: Garcia was signed as an international free agent by the Pirates in 20120 for a signing bonus of $280,000. Garcia made his professional debut in the DSL in 2010 and fared pretty well which was enough to earn him a promotion to the United States. In 2011 he played rookie ball and started off slowly before finishing the year strongly. The strong finish was enough for him to earn a promotion to A ball in 2012. Garcia played the year as a 19 year old and held his own but overall really didn’t perform that well. Garcia did show off some good power by belting 18 home runs and he also possess decent speed and solid defense so the talent is still definitely there. Garcia actually finished the year worse than he started the year which is why the Pirates are likely to hold him back in A ball in 2013.

Prospect Recap: Part XVI

Top Prospects 11-15

15. Justin Wilson: The Pirates drafted Wilson in the 5th round of the 2008 draft. Shortly after being drafted he gained some attention for his performance in the College World Series. He didn’t appear in a game in 2008 but made his debut in 2009. The Pirates aggressively pushed him to A+ and at first he appeared overmatched but he improved as the year went along and finished the year strong. He showed some control issues but on the positive side he missed some bats. The Pirates promoted him to AA in 2010 and he became one of the Altoona 4 that led the Pirates AA affiliate to an Eastern League championship. His numbers were very strong as he struck out a lot of batters and was difficult to hit but once again he struggled with control. The Pirates opted to start Wilson in AAA to begin the 2011 season and he started off well but once hitters started laying off more and more pitches he began to struggle and was eventually sent to the bullpen. While in the bullpen he garnered some attention in Pittsburgh by hitting 99 mph on the radar gun on several occasions. Wilson returned to AAA in 2012 and had a similar but more successful season. He once again struck out a lot of hitters but he continued to show command issues. He would put together a few good starts but then have one where his lack of command got the best of him. The Pirates promoted him to the majors late in the year and his control problems continued. Wilson has great stuff and is difficult to hit but his control issues are holding him back. The Pirates are probably going to give him one more chance as a starter in AAA to begin the season but if not successful he could make a good late inning reliever.

14. Wyatt Mathisen: The Pirates drafted Mathisen in the second round of this past draft. Scouts and the Pirates agreed that he profiled best as a catcher but in high school he got little time behind the plate and played mainly shortstop and pitcher. He is an athletic player with good speed for a catcher and projects to hit for both power and average. His defense behind the plate is still a little raw but that is probably from the lack of experience there. He signed with the Pirates for exactly slot amount and was sent to rookie ball. There he split time with Jhang at catcher and DH. Mathisen hit well and played solid defense throwing out 36% of base runners. Baseball America had him rated the 47th best overall prospect in this past draft, the second best catching prospect in the draft and they also rated him the 5th best prospect at the GCL level this past season. Mathisen has all the tools needed to be a strong two way catching prospect but also has a lot of development in front of him. The Pirates will have to decide whether to push him to full season ball next season or be more cautious and only promote him to A-.

13. Tony Sanchez: Sanchez was the 4th overall pick in the 2009 draft and has been the subject of some fair and unfair criticism. He was definitely an overdraft when the Pirates selected him but truth be told there was not really any particular player that stood above the rest so the strategy of going with a polished college catcher and going for overslot picks later was a solid one but it has been unsuccessful. As for Sanchez he signed quickly in 2009 and was sent to A- to get his feet wet but was shortly promoted to A ball. There Sanchez hit well as should be expected for an advanced college player at that level and he played good defense behind the plate. The Pirates promoted Sanchez to A+ near the end of the season but he only got 10 AB so he started back at that level in 2010. Sanchez was battling a shoulder injury at the beginning of the season but still hit rather well, his defense, specifically throwing out runners, did suffer though. He appeared to be in line for a promotion but in June he got hit in the face with a pitch which broke his jaw. Sanchez started the 2011 season in AA and with the exception for good plate discipline his showing was awful. It is very possible some of his numbers were hurt because the broken jaw caused him to lose a fair amount of weight but still the numbers were a disappointment. The Pirates sent Sanchez back to AA in 2012 and he hit much better, continued showing good plate discipline and played solid defense but he showed very little power. The Pirates promoted him to AAA midseason and he struggled some but he did show some power. Sanchez was added to the roster this offseason and will likely start the season in AAA but should see the majors at some point.

12. Tyler Glasnow: The Pirates drafted Glasnow in the 5th round of the 2011 draft. Glasnow grew rapidly in high school, growing 8 inches as a freshman. As he filled out his frame he added velocity eventually settling into the low 90s with the possibility of addining more. He compliments his fastball with a slider, curve and a change up. The curve is considered the best of his secondary pitches. The Pirates signed Glasnow for 600K which was well overslot but he signd late so he did not appear in any games in 2011. The Pirates surprisingly started Glasnow out at the rookie ball level instead of A- where most of the previous year high school pitchers started. He had a very strong season posting a 10.5 K/9 and holding opponents to a .156 batting average. On the down side he did show some control issues positing a 4.2 BB/9. From reports it appears Glasnow has added some velocity as he was sitting at 93 and touching 96 with his fastball. The Pirates gave him a late season promotion to A- which probably means they are considering starting him at the A level but they have been very careful with him so they may choose to send him back to A-. Regardless Glasnow will probably start the season in extended spring training and be assigned a level later on in order to keep his innings under control.

11. Dilson Herrera: Herrera was the Pirates second biggest international signing in the 2010 signing period behind Heredia. He signed for 220K and was listed as a shortstop but the Pirates have yet to give him any time there so he likely can’t play shortstop even passably. Herrera debuted in the VSL in 2011 and had a great season showing good power, good contact and good plate discipline but he did have a slightly higher than hoped for strike out rate. The Pirates thought highly enough of Herrera to bring him to the states for 2012. He played the year at rookie ball showing good power at 7 HR and even showing decent speed on the base paths. The Pirates promoted Herrera to A- near the end of the season which is a sign they are considering starting him at the A level. Herrera is already a popular pick to be an Alen Hanson type breakout candidate next season. He is actually often compared to Hanson but he doesn’t have his speed or even his defensive ability at shortstop but on the plus side he does have a bigger frame which should mean more power. Herrera should start the 2013 season at the A level as the everyday second baseman.

A Look Back: Tony Sanchez Selection

With the 4th pick in the 2009 draft the Pirates took a catcher from Boston College by the name of Tony Sanchez. At the time of the selection this was viewed as a sign-ability pick and Sanchez wasn’t considered the best player available. Obviously this selection hasn’t panned out quite like the Pirates and their fans would have hoped. Not only has Sanchez struggled in the minor leagues but none of the high upside high school arms the Pirates selected later in the draft have turned out. So this obviously raises the question what could the Pirates have had if they would have taken someone who was appropriate for that spot? Using hind sight here and saying that Mike Trout should have been the selection isn’t really what I’m looking to do instead I’m going to look at players who were rated around the #4 overall spot. To keep this reasonable Strasburg, Ackley and Tate won’t be considered as they were already off the board. So I’m going to take a look at the rest of Baseball America’s top 10.

#4 Kyle Gibson: Gibson just completed an injury plagued season in which he threw only 28.1 innings. He has yet to make his major league debut but has pitched parts of 3 seasons in AAA compiling 117.2 IP at that level while supporting a 4.67 ERA, 1.402 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.

#5 Jacob Turner: Turner was traded this season to the Marlins as the key piece in the Anibal Sanchez deal. He made his major league debut last season but got his first real taste of full time action this season with the Marlins. He looked good throwing 42.2 innings and posting a 3.38 ERA, 0.984 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. His AAA numbers are also solid with a 2.85 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 107.1 IP.

#6 Alex White: White was traded last season to the Rockies as a key piece in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal. He made his major league debut last season and got to make about half a season worth of starts this year. His time in the majors has thus far been a struggle with 149.1 IP and a 6.03 ERA, 1.688 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. He was better in AAA posting a 3.20 EA, 1.198 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 84.1 IP.

#7 Aaron Crow: Crow made it to the majors quickly as a relief pitcher, even earning an All Star appearance in 2011. He has been very solid out of the bullpen throwing 126.2 innings while posting a 3.13 ERA, 1.279 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. Crow spent no time at AAA and struggled in his time at AA posting a 5.66 ERA, 1.584 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 over 119.1 innings.

#8 Tyler Matzek: Matzek has yet to make his major league debut and in fact has not pitched above the A+ level. In 175.1 innings at the A+ level Matzek has posted and 5.60 ERA, 1.762 WHIP. 9.8 K/9 and 7.2 BB/9.The Rockies are still using him as a starter.

#9 Tanner Scheppers: As most of you may know the Pirates actually selected Scheppers during the 2nd round of the  2009 draft but he didn’t sign presumably because the Pirates had concerns about his medical history. Scheppers was drafted the next season by the Texas Rangers and made his major league debut this season. In 32.1 innings of relief Scheppers posted a 4.45 ERA, 1.732 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. In AAA Scheppers threw 120.2 innings posting a 4.77 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 91. K/9 and 3.4 BB/9.

#10 Matthew Purke: Purke was drafted in the 1st round of the 2009 draft but did not sign. The Nationals selected him in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft and he made his professional debut this past season in A ball. Purke pitched sparingly only throwing 15.1 innings so he must have had injury problems but in those few innings he posted a 5.87 ERA, 1.761 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 7.0 BB/9.

Recap

Gibson and White are two players who have reached AAA and pitched decent but not great. They both will probably get a chance (or in White’s case another chance) to establish themselves in the majors but neither is a good bet.

Turner was a very solid prospect who shown good signs of establishing himself as at least a solid major league starter. Right now he appears to the best of the group.

Crow and Scheppers have both made the major leagues as a reliever and that appears to be their path going forward. Crow is now established while Scheppers looked decent in his first stint this past season.

Matzek and Purke have a long way to go to get established. Matzek has the look of a bust while it is too early to make a real call on Purke. Purke’s injury history does make him look like a real risky prospect though.

This does not excuse the Pirates for a poor selection but their belief that the remaining talent was a bit of a crap shoot does seem to have some validity. Outside of Turner there doesn’t appear to be a major impact player anywhere in the bunch. Again not an excuse for missing on the pick but this portion of Baseball America’s 2009 draft rankings certainly isn’t looking promising right now.