Category: Minor Leagues

The 2009 Draft

When looking at Huntington’s draft record it is often criticized as being poor. There is nothing wrong with this opinion as it has a lot of support but it is based upon essentially one draft. It’s too early to judge the 2010-12 drafts and the 2008 draft why not stellar was fairly solid producing 5 players who have played in the majors for the Pirates plus the main piece of the Wandy Rodriguez trade. One could argue it should be better (which I believe it should have been) but I don’t really think there is an argument to be made that it was flat-out bad. That leaves the 2009 draft which by all accounts does indeed look like a bad draft. The first round pick hasn’t developed as expected and none of the overslot high school arms have really broken out to this point. My question is how does it compare with other teams? I don’t really have the time to compare it to the drafts of the other 29 teams in the league so I chose 4 teams which I felt made sense.

Two teams I chose were the San Diego Padres and the Baltimore Orioles. The reason I selected these two is quite simple they selected 3rd and 5th in the 2009 draft respectively meaning one pick ahead of and one pick behind the Pirates. The other two teams I selected were the Oakland Athletics and Milwaukee Brewers. The reasons I selected these two are a bit more obscure. I selected the Athletics because they are a small market team well-known for having a consistently good minor league system so I figured they would show me what a good draft looked like. I selected the Brewers because they are a small market team in the Pirates division. Basically they just appear to me to be a team in a very similar situation to the Pirates.

I broke the draft down into five sections: Round 1, Rounds 2-5, Rounds 6-10, Rounds 11-20 and Rounds 21 and up. I noted every player who actually either appeared in the major leagues for these teams or who are still in the system and considered a prospect. So there is no bias on my part in picking who is still a prospect I used John Sickles top 20 lists he published in late 2012 and early 2013. Below are my findings:

Round 1

Padres: Donavan Tate, Grade C

Orioles: Matthew Hobgood, Grade NA

Athletics: Grant Green, Grade B-

Brewers: Eric Artnett, Grade NA; Kentrail Davis, Grade C; Kyle Heckathron, Grade C

Pirates: Tony Sanchez, Grade C; Victor Black, Grade C+

Analysis: Not a very inspiring group of prospects here. Tate, an OF, struggled last year at the age of 21 between the A and A+ levels posting a combined OPS of .620. Hobgood is a pitcher who didn’t pitch at all in 2012 but in 2011 as a 20 year old posted a 8.76 combined ERA in rookie and short season ball. Grant Green (who I’ll admit was who I wanted the Pirates to pick) is the best prospect of the group and at age 24 he posted a .796 OPS in the PCL (AAA league know for high offensive numbers). He has lost a lot of his appeal since draft day as he no longer looks like an everyday shortstop.

The Brewers had their regular 1st round pick and two supplemental picks. Last season Arnett pitched as a 24 year old in A+ and posted a 3.56 ERA while pitching exclusively in relief. Kentrail Davis is an OF who at age 24 last season posted a .761 OPS in AA, the Brewers are having him repeat the level this season. Kyle Heckathorn is a pitcher who last season at age 24 posted a 4.75 ERA while splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. The Brewers promoted him to AAA this season and he now appears to be focusing exclusively on relief. Tony Sanchez split time between AA and AAA last season and as a 24 year old posted a .739 OPS for the year. Victor Black was a supplemental pick of the Pirates and is the second best prospect in this group, last season at age 24 he posted a 1.65 ERA out of the AA bullpen.

Rounds 2-5

Padres: Everett Williams (Round 2), Grade C; Keyvius Sampson (Round 4), Grade B-

Orioles: Tyler Townsend (Round 3), Grade C

Athletics: NA

Brewers: Cameron Garfield (Round 2), Grade C+; Josh Prince (Round 3), Grade C

Pirates: Zack Dodson (Round 4), Grade C

Analysis: Another fairly uninspiring group. Looking at the Padres they have Williams, an OF, who posted a .651 OPS as a 21 year old in A+ last season, and Sampson a starting pitcher who posed a 5.00 ERA as a 21 year old in AA last season. The Padres by grades have the most impressive group. Tyler Townsend is a 1B prospect in the Orioles system, last season he played at four different levels ranging from rookie ball all the way to AA. He was 24 years old and his overall OPS was .773, his longest stint was in A+ where in 136 PA he posted a .711 OPS. The Athletics have no one drafted in round drafted in rounds 2-5 who Sickles mentions on his prospect list.

Cameron Garfield was drafted by the Brewers with their second 2nd round pick in 2009 and is a catcher. Last season at age 21 he hit well in half a season at A ball posting a .910 OPS, this was his 3rd year at that level largely due to an injury that wiped out nearly all of his 2011 season. Prince was originally drafted as a SS but the Brewers has him playing primarily CF last season. At the AA level at age 24 he showed good speed stealing 24 bases but his bat was a little weak compiling only a .706 OPS. The only Pirates selection of note remaining from the 2009 is Zach Dodson. Dodson was one of many prep arms drafted by the Pirates that year and like the rest he hasn’t developed. Last year in his second season in A ball Dodson actually posted worse numbers than the year before putting up a 4.86 ERA as a 21 year old.

Rounds 6-10

Padres: Mike Mikolas (Round 7), MLB; James Needy (Round 6), Grade C

Orioles: Ryan Berry (Round 9), Grade C

Athletics: Ian Krol (Round 7), Grade C+

Brewers: Hiram Burgos (Round 6), Grade C+; Khris Davis (Round 7), Grade C+

Pirates: Zach Von Rosenberg (Round 6), Grade C; Brock Holt (Round 9), MLB

Analysis: This group is a little bit more interesting as we have our first major league ball players. There are 4 in all between these five teams and two of them came from these rounds. It should be noted the other two are actually the more noteworthy MLB players. Mikolas is a relief pitcher whom the Padres drafted in the 7th round. Starting in 2010 he focused full time on relief. As a 23 year old in 2012 he split last season between AA, AAA and the majors. In the minor leagues he posted a combined ERA of 2.92. During his major league stint he pitched 32.1 innings with an ERA of 3.62 and a WAR of 0.1. Milkolas failed to make the Padres this year out of spring and is back in AAA. James Needy is a pitcher. Last season at 21 years old he pitched primarily in A ball but the Padres gave him 8.1 combined innings in AA and AAA as well. He pitched well posting a 1.79 ERA primarily in relief at all 3 levels combined.

Berry is a pitcher in the Orioles system who spent last year primarily in A+ but did get into one game at the AA level. His ERA at the two levels combined was 3.21 and he did this  as a 23 year old relief pitcher. Krol spent his 2012 season splitting time between A+ and AA. He didn’t pitch the greatest posting a 5.20 ERA but he was young for the levels at only 21 years old.The Brewers have probably the strongest group remaining from these rounds. Burgos is a pitcher last season he split his time between A+, AA and AAA. He pitched a total of 171 innings with over 40 IP at each level and compiled a fantastic ERA of 1.95. At 24 years old he was age appropriate for the upper levels. Davis is a left fielder who at the age of 24 put together a really strong season in 2012 at the AA and AAA levels. He also had a short stint in rookie ball which I’m guessing was injury related but overall he posted a 1.055 OPS. On the downside injuries did limit him to 316 PA.

Von Rosenberg received the largest bonus of all the Pirates overslot high school arms in 2009. He repeated A ball last season as a 21 year old and saw improvements in his ERA lowering it to 4.38 but his walks rose and strike outs dropped. Brock Holt is obviously no longer with the Pirates but he did play in the majors for them so he is worth noting. Last season before being promoted to the majors Holt split time between AA and AAA. He hit the ball well at AA and caught fire at AAA making his overall OPS a good looking .859.  While in the majors Holt collected only 72 PA and posted a .682 OPS and he was exactly a replacement level player posting a 0.0 WAR.

Rounds 11-20

Padres: NA

Orioles: Michael Ohlman (Round 11), Grade C; Ty Kelly (Round 13), Grade C

Athletics: NA

Brewers: Scooter Gennett (Round 16), Grade B-

Pirates: NA

Analysis: Very slim pickings in these rounds as according to Sickles only 3 players have retained prospect status. The Padres, Athletics and Pirates have no players of note. Ohlman was drafted by the Orioles as a catcher but last season he split his time fairly evenly between catcher and 1st base so the Orioles are at least considering him for other positions. During the 2012 season he was 21 years old and spent the season primarily in A ball with a short stint in rookie ball and a bit longer stint in Australian Baseball League. Not exactly sure why he was playing in Australia but he is back now. At the A ball level he put up a solid .868 OPS. Kelly’s primary position appears to be 3rd base but last year he spent more time at 2nd than third and also spent a significant amount of time in LF so he appears to be a player without a set position. As a 23 year old he split his time in 2012 between A+, AA and AAA. Kelly dominated in A+ posting a .973 OPS and played well in AA (.797 OPS) and even respectably in AAA (.739 OPS).

Gennett is the best prospect the Brewers have remaining in this draft (although they do have a solid major league I will get to in a little bit). He is a 2B and spent 2012 as a 22 year old in AA. His numbers at the level were good considering he was young for the league as he posted a .714 OPS.

Rounds 21-50

Padres: NA

Orioles: Brenden Webb (Round 30), Grade C; Time Berry (Round 50), Grade C

Athletics: Dan Straily (Round 24), Grade B/MLB; Conner Crumbliss (Round 28), Grade C

Brewers: Mike Fiers (Round 22), MLB

Pirates: Phillip Irwin (Round 21), Grade C+

Analysis: The Padres once again have no noteworthy players meaning the latest they selected a noteworthy player was the 7th round. The Athletics selected the best prospect amongst these 5 teams in the 24th round in Dan Straily. Straily split his minor league time last season as a 23 year old between AA and AAA and posted a 2.78 ERA. He only pitched 39.1 innings in the majors last season which is how he has retained his prospect status. Straily pitched well in his limited time posting a 3.89 ERA. Crumbliss primarily plays the outfield now although he does have significant time at 2B during his early minor league days. Last season Crumliss spent the year at AA where at 25 he was a little old for the level but he hit well posting an .805 OPS.

To date the most successful major leaguer of this group is Mike Fiers. Fiers actually made his major league debut in 2011 making him the fastest player to reach the majors out of these 5 teams. Fiers did spend some time in AAA last season making 10 starts and posting an ERA of 4.42.His time in the majors was even better as he posted a 3.74 ERA over 22 starts and was worth 1.8 WAR (career WAR is currently 1.6). Fiers is the elder statesman of this group too as he was 27 years old last year. Irwin is the only Pirates draft pick past round 20 that has managed to retain his prospect value. Irwin played at the A+, AA and AAA levels last season but by far spent most of his time at the AA level. At 25 years old he was old for the level but he posted a good 2.83 combined ERA between all 3 levels.

Summary

Padres: 1 MLB player (0.1 WAR), 1 B- grade prospect, 3 C grade prospects (5 total players)

Orioles: 6 grade C prospects (6 total players)

Athletics: 1 B grade prospect with MLB time (0.6 WAR), 1 B- grade prospect, 1 C+ grade prospect, 1 C grade prospect (4 total players)

Brewers: 1 MLB player (1.6 WAR), 1 B- grade prospect, 3 C+ grade prospects, 3 C grade prospects (8 total players)

Pirates: 1 MLB player (0.0 WAR), 2 C+ grade prospects, 3 C grade prospects (6 total players)

Usually this is where I would give my opinion of the situation but this exercise wasn’t for me to spout off my opinion but rather to show how the Pirates 2009 draft currently stands compared to other teams in similar situations. These teams are not cherry picked by me to try and prove any point. The Padres and Orioles are listed do to the proximity of where they drafted, the Athletics are listed due to the fact they are a proven successful small market club and the Brewers are listed because they are a small market team within the Pirates division.

I will note once again that the Pirates had an additional pick in the 1st round and that the Brewers had two additional picks in the first round and an additional pick in the second round. When looking at the drafts those are factors that need to be considered. This is not a perfect look at what each team got from the 2009 draft or even the team’s ability to identify talent. There are undoubtedly players drafted by these teams that went unsigned and others who were traded perhaps for a very useful major league piece however my attempt here is just to show what each team has remaining that they brought into their own system directly through this particular draft.

Prospects: Catchers

AAA: Tony Sanchez

Backing up Tony Sanchez this season in AAA will likely be some combination of Lucas May, Ali Solis and Brian Jeroloman. All of three catchers are past their prospect days but should an opening arise in the majors it is possible one of them could get the call. As for Sanchez his prospect stock has took a hit down to the point where he is no longer widely consider the Pirates top catching prospect (Battling Bucs still gives him the slightest of edges though) but he still does have some upside and could be a useful major league catcher as early as later this season. Sanchez’s defense was said to be good when he was drafted and that remains the case; his game calling is also improving which means he looks to be a very capable receiver at this point in his career. The question is as it always was his bat. Sanchez recovered some last season from a terrible 2011 but his offensive numbers were still a disappointment. In order to move forward this year and show he still might be able to develop into at least an averae MLB starting catcher his offensive game particularly his power will need to make great strides.

AA: Carlos Paulino

Paulino will serve as the regular catcher in AA and be backed up primarily by Charlie Cutler. Kawika Emsley-Pai and others may play at the level as well but barring an injury it is likely to be sparingly. At this point in his career Paulino is essentially an extreme version of Sanchez. His defensive game overall is a little better than Sanchez’s but his bat is worse. Paulino’s defense alone has what it takes to make him a backup catcher in the majors but if he is ever going to have a shot at being a starting catcher he is going to have to show he can hit some. Paulino has hit fairly well in the past posting good numbers in 2011 but he struggled last season when he was forced to repeat A+. Now as the unquestioned starter in AA this is Paulino’s time to shine.

A+: Jacob Stallings, Elias Diaz

Stallings and Diaz are expected to split catching time in A+. Like Sanchez and Paulino these two catchers are noted more for their defense than their offense. Stallings was drafted last year by the Pirates in the early rounds mainly as an attempt to save cap space for making a run at Appel. He comes from the NCAA holding the single season record for throwing out runners attempting to steal. The Pirates are aggressively pushing him over regular A ball and straight to advance. This is a typical move for advanced college hitters but Stallings is not one of those. His offense will likely struggle but it is going to have to be his defense that carries him anyway. As for Diaz the Pirates seem to really like him but up to this point he really hasn’t shown much progress as a hitter. Like all the other catchers discussed so far he is going have to show some improvements with the bat to see his prospect stock rise.

A: Wyatt Mathisen

At this point I’m not really sure who will back up Mathisen but the Pirates are not short of options as the lower levels are filled with a ton of catchers (non prospects of course). Mathisen is a horse of a different color in this catching crop. He is widely considered to be the Pirates top catching prospect (Battling Bucs has him 2nd just slighly behind Sanchez) with his biggest weakness being his defense. Mathisen is really just becoming accustomed to the catcher position having played the majority of his high school career at the shortstop position. His bat is advanced for a high school player and his defensive game has shown flashes of potential but with this being a relatively new position to him there is still a lot to work on. The main challenge for Mathisen in 2013 will be just adjusting to being a full tiem catcher.

Lower Levels: Jin-De Jhang, Daniel Arribas

There was some talk the Pirates might consider moving Jhang to A ball with Mathisen and having them continue to split time between catcher and DH but that doesn’t appear to have happened. Jhang will start the season likely in short season ball. Like Mathisen, Jhang is relatively new to catching and has a lot of work to do to get the mechanics of the position down. His bat is strong for a catcher though and makes him an interesting prospect to watch. Arribas has played catcher, 1st base and 3rd base in the DSL but appears to be focusing entirely on catching right now. Arribas shown some hitting talent in the DSL last season and was moved up to the states this year. He will likely share catching duties in rookie ball this season as he adjusts to his more permanent position home.

Top 5 Catching Prospects

1. Tony Sanchez

2. Wyatt Mathisen

3. Jin-De Jhang

4. Carlos Paulino

5. Jacob Stallings

Pirates/Curve Recap

The Pirates lost to the OCurve today 8-6. That sounds depressing but in reality it isn’t. The game was by all means an exhibition meaning both sides took the game extremely lightly and both rosters were a state of flux with the Pirates roster having many Curve players and vice versa. By the end of the game the Pirates defense was Michael McKenry (C), Kelson Brown (1B), Josh Harrison (2B), Stefan Welch (3B), John McDonald (SS), Dan Grovatt (LF), Andy Vasquez (CF) and Jose Tabata (RF). Not exactly the starting eight you’ll see out there on Monday. Still the game was a joy to watch and had a few highlights. I have pictures which I will try to share later in the week but for now I’ll just give a quick summary of the events.

Before the game Frank Coonley, the Pirates president was about in the stands. Battling Bucs got his first chance to meet him. It wasn’t a long meeting of course but it was an interesting experience. Shortly before the game Coonley was again front and center as he announced the partnership between the Pirates and Curve was extended through 2018. Also before game action got under way the Pirates and Curve joined together for a group picture brining about another great sight.

Once the game actually got under way the first thing that became clear that McDonald either didn’t have or wasn’t using his best stuff. The Curve hit him around well and drew 3 walks in the first inning alone as all 9 hitters came to the plate. After JMac’s struggles Tony Watson took the hill for the Curve in the top of the 2nd and struggled a fair amount himself, His outing was capped when Starling Marte launched a grand slam into the outfield bleachers. Marte ended up having himself a banner day as he also added another hit and displayed his strong arm.

Later in the game Andrew McCutchen was robbed of a hit by a great diving catch in the outfield by Andrew Lambo and the very next hitter Pedro Alvarez had a well hit ball speared by Gift Ngoepe. It was some great defense being played behind Justin Wilson and I’m betting he hopes he gets that kind of help for his appearances starting on Monday. Shortly after this inning Nathan Baker entered the game for the Pirates and struggled mightily allowing 4 runs and missing with most of his pitches. It was not long after Baker’s performance the next top of the inning that the mass substitutions started. The scoreboard at the game wasn’t even to keep up with all the moves as the Pirates had players in the game without names on their jerseys and in some cases without even a number. This hybrid lineup did manage to get a few hits in the 7th and cut the deficit to 8-6 but that was as close as the game got.

The rest of the game was fairly uneventful and it seemingly went on forever. I’m not really sure what the cause of the slow pace of the game but I’m guessing it had something to do with all the substitutions and TV timeouts. As I stated earlier the game went well and was very entertaining but I also know there is nothing I or anyone can or should take from the outcome. For the record the game ended when Jason Townsend coming into face his first batter got Benji Gonzalez, who was pinch hitting for Josh Harrison, to fly out to right field. I have more to say but I’m typing this fairly late at night so this will have to do. I’ll add more notes when I post pictures of the game later in the week.

 

 

The AA Roster

Catchers: Carlos Paulino, Charlie Cutler
Paulino is a defensive first catcher who is graded by scouts as one of the best defensive catchers in the minor leagues. He stuck around with the big league camp until the final round of cuts so the Pirates must see something in him. Cutler is an organizational player who is a bat first catcher.

1st Base/DH: Alex Dickerson, Matt Curry
Both Dickerson and Curry are prospects to some degrees. If it wasn’t for the logjam of 1B types in AAA (Hague, Larish and possibly Robinson) Curry would almost certainly be there after a good season in AA. Both players have received a little time in LF this Spring but neither is an option there long term. Both players are good hitters but the question is whether either has enough power to make up for their defensive limitations.

Middle Infield: Jarek Cunningham, Gift Ngoepe, Drew Maggi
Cunningham will be the starter at 2nd and Ngoepe at shortstop. Cunningham is repeating the level because he struggled last season but has good power for a 2nd baseman so he is worth keeping an eye on. Ngoepe doesn’t do much with the bat but is a slick fielding shortstop. If he can hit even a little his glove will almost certainly carry him to the majors. Maggi was given an overslot bonus just a few years ago but is now just an organizational player. He could see time just about anywhere including the outfield but his primary purpose will be backing up the middle infield.

Other Infielders: Stefan Welch, Adalberto Santos
Welch and Santos figure to split the third base duties. Neither is a 3rd baseman by trade as Welch is better suited for 1st base and Santos has played almost exclusively the outfield. Welch is coming off an excellent season in A+ in 2012 which earned him a promotion to AA. He started off hot but quickly cooled down. He did have a good showing in the WBC for Team Australia this spring though. Santos has hit at every level the Pirates put him on and probably should be up in AAA this year but the roster figures to be a little crowded. He played exclusively the outfield last season but played some 2B the year before that. Santos is likely to see time in both the OF and 2B as well as adding 3B to his duties. If he can be passable defensively eat each position it coupled with his good contact skills could make him an intriguing bench option.

Outfielders: Mel Rojas, Andrew Lambo, Justin Howard, Andy Vasquez
Rojas is the only real prospect in this group. He has a good set of tools but hasn’t really put everything together. He probably isn’t ready for AA but with Polanco moving up to A+ the Pirates have decided to give him an aggressive push and let him continue playing center field. Lambo will be spending his 5th year at the AA level. This his last year before minor league free agency so if he is going to ever live up to that prospect hype its likely now or never. Howard has good contact skills but is poor defensively and has little power. In reality he shouldn’t be in the outfield but the only position he plays even half decently his first base and there is just no room for him there. Vasquez is a utility player who has been in the Pirates organization seemingly forever. He has played a little bit of everywhere but it appears he will serve mainly as a backup outfielder this season. In addition to these guys Santos is likely to see a lot of time in the outfield and Maggi, Dickerson and even Curry could get the occasional start as well.

Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon, Stolmy Pimentel, Brandon Cumpton, Casey Sadler, Tyler Waldron
Taillon is of course Taillon. He is the only true top flight prospect at this level. The main question surrounding him is when will he move up to AAA. Pimentel was acquired in the Joel Hanrahan trade and has a lot of upside but has struggled in AA in the past and is on his last option so he is going to have to impress quickly. Cumpton had moderate success in the AA rotation last year but wasn’t overwhelming so the Pirate have opted to have him repeat the level. Sadler is a prospect I like a lot but he is better suited for relief than starting. He pitched well last year both as a starter and a reliever in A+ and the Pirates like to keep their pitching prospects starting for as long as possible. Waldron was supposed to be moving to the bullpen but I guess the Pirates have had a change of mind. He really didn’t pitch that well last season in A+ but he was promoted near the end of the season so the Pirates must see some potential in him.

Relief Pitchers: Tim Alderson, Nate Baker, Jason Townsend, Jeff Inman, Luis Sanz, Ethan Hollingsworth, Kenn Kasparek
Alderson has seemingly been around forever but is still relatively young at only 24 years old. He gets another go around in AA and this could be his last chance to salvage his career. he still has that great curveball and his fastball is back in the lower 90s so anything is possible. Baker was in the AA rotation for most of last year but struggled and was moved to the bullpen. He did well there and as a left hander he shouldn’t be completely dismissed as an organizational player quite yet. Townsend was a prospect I was initially excited about when the Pirates drafted him because he was throwing in the upper 90s and striking batters out. However something happened last year and that good velocity and strike out numbers were no longer there. I will be curious to see if he can regain that form this season. Inman was a fairly highly touted 12th round pick by the Pirates who only slipped that low because of health concerns. Well so far those health concerns have proved to be a big problem as before last year he pitched in only 17 games over 3 seasons. he did remain relatively healthy last year and displayed good velocity but his strike out rates were low largely do to the lack of a good secondary pitch. The other 3 relievers were added this offseason to provide depth and are only organizational players.

Notable Omissions

The players I’m the most surprised to not see here are Zach Thornton, Kelson Brown and Dan Grovatt. Thornton was acquired this offseason for Resop and was talked about as the potential closer for the AA team. He had a high strike out rate last year but he was admittedly old for the level. Kelson Brown had a good showing in AA last year and looked like a possible future utility player in the major leagues. He didn’t have much of a ceiling but I would say he had a shot at a Rob Mackowiak type career. Finally Grovatt was one of the better hitters at A+ last year which again really isn’t saying a whole lot as the offense was terrible at that level. One other player to watch but he is not a notable omission is Ryan Beckman. Fan Graphs recently called Beckman a sleeper prospect and I agree with that assessment. Ordinarily he would be on this roster but he is still recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Top Prospects

1. Jameson Taillon

2. Alex Dickerson

3. Gift Ngoepe

4. Adalberto Santos

5. Stolmy Pimentel

6. Casey Sadler

7. Mel Rojas Jr

8. Matt Curry

9. Carlos Paulino

10. Brandon Cumpton

11. Jarek Cunningham

Projecting the A+ Roster

Catcher

Candidates: Jacob Stallings, Elias Diaz, Francisco Diaz, Kawika Emsley-Pai, Devin Ivany

Analysis: The Pirates do not have a real prospect ready to man the catching position in A+ so the spot will likely go to a fringe prospect or organizational guy. Carlos Paulino is an option to repeat the level yet again but I suspect the Pirates will push him to AA. That leaves us essentially with the candidates I listed above. Ivany was signed to a minor league contract this offseason and could really play anywhere from A+ to AAA. Emsley-Pai and Francisco Diaz look like organizational catchers who will fill in where they are needed in the middle levels. Stallings and Elias Diaz retain just a hint of prospect status. Diaz has been with the Pirates a few years though so his lack of progress could cause the Pirates to shift him towards an organizational role. Stallings was just drafted last year and is probably the best defensive catcher in the organization. He hasn’t show any ability to hit though. Stallings defense should keep him at the prospect borderline for another season or two though.

Prediction: Jacob Stallings

Infield

Candidates: Jose Osuna, Dan Gamache, Eric Avila, Chris Lashmet, Alen Hanson, DJ Crumlich, Kirk Singer, Andy Vasquez, Benji Gonzalez

Analysis: Personally I think the starting infield at the A+ level is fairly straightforward. Osuna and Hanson are locks to handle 1B and SS respectively which only leaves 2B and 3B open. Dan Gamache is coming off a fairly strong year in A ball and I would imagine the Pirates will give him the first crack at 2B in A+. Third base is a bit more wide open but Avila finished the year strong showing a good power surge so I’m guessing he’ll start the year as the third baseman. The other options will have to earn playing time and will likely fill some bench roles in A+ to start the year.

Prediction: Jose Osuna (1B), Dan Gamache (2B), Eric Avila (3B), Alen Hanson (SS)

Outfield

Candidates: Gregory Polanco, Barrett Barnes, Taylor Lewis, Junior Sosa, Mel Rojas, Willy Garcia, Carlos Mesa

Analysis: There are two locks in the above group and that is Gregory Polanco and Barrett Barnes both are probably top 10 prospects in the Pirates organization and are ready for A+ so they will play. The last spot is a bit more of a question mark. Gaffney was a prime candidate to take a spot before he returned to college football and Garcia is the best prospect of the remaining group but he didn’t show a lot in A ball last year. Of the rest Sosa and Mesa look like organizational filler, Lewis a project and Rojas as a fading prospect who may be pushed to AA for last audition.

Prediction: Barrett Barnes (LF), Gregory Polanco (CF), Mel Rojas (RF)

Bench

Analysis: The bench will of course consist of the players listed who I have not assigned starting roles to. The options are not very clear at this point. Obviously a backup catcher will be retained. I also suspect that we will see two of the infielders retained, I think Crumlich with his strong debut last season is the safest bet of the group and we will also see one outfielder. There is one final spot and I think that will go to a player who will split DHing duties with the 4th outfielder.

Prediction: Elias Diaz, DJ Crumlich, Kirk Singer, Chris Lashmet, Taylor Lewis

Rotation

Candidates: Nicholas Kingham, Robby Rowland, Zach Von Rosenberg, Matt Benedict, Zachary Fuesser, Kenn Kasparek, Luis Sanz, Zack Dodson

Analysis: It is difficult to handicap the pitching staffs as we get this low into the minors. The Pirates have a lot of options and at times it can be difficult to figure just who they are high on. In this case I think 3 of the 5 starting pitchers are or should be rather clear. Kingham, Rowland and Von Rosenberg all have earned a chance to show what they can do in A+. The rest of the group is a smattering of borderline prospects of which I can’t decipher who the Pirates are still high on. Dodson is suspended to begin the season and obviously won’t start the year with anybody but is a candidate to join the A+ rotation shortly after his suspension ends. Sanz I originally pegged for the AA rotation but I’m having second thoughts on that and he could come into player here.

Prediction: Nicholas Kingham, Robby Rownalnd, Zach Von Rosenberg, Matt Benedict, Kenn Kasparek

Bullpen

Analysis: Like all minor league bullpens my prediction is just a shot in the dark in which I pick seven names I kind of like who I think would make sense.

Prediction: Zachary Fuesser, Porfirio Lopez, Dalton Friend, Pat Ludwig, Rinku Singh, Nathan Kilcrease, Quinton Miller

2013 Rule V Draft

I know this is incredibly early but with news being slow this time of year I thought I would fast forward to December and take a look at the players the Pirates will have to decide to either add to the 40 man roster or expose to the Rule V draft. For the sake of simplicity I have opted to focus only on players who will be eligible for the Rule V draft for the first time in 2013. I am sure there will be others who were previously eligible who may wind up factoring into the Pirates or another team’s plans but there are too many to consider at this early point. I have divided the players into five categories and written a little bit about the players, why I think there is a chance they might be selected and how I think the Pirates will proceed with them in 2013. There are of course other first time eligible players and I make mention of that later one but to me they are notable in this discussion. Once again it is way too early to even begin thinking about this kind of stuff but hey news is slow this time of year so why not.

Locks To Be Added: Gregory Polanco

It takes a lot to look like a definite lock to be added to the 40 man roster nearly a year out from your Rule 5 eligibility so naturally there are very few players who fit this description. The Pirates have one and only one such player in Gregory Polanco. He is the Pirates number 1 or 1a hitting prospect and should start the season at A+. Usually when evaluating whether to protect prospects or not teams would like to see what the player is capable of doing at least against AA competition but in Polanco’s case that isn’t really much of a concern as he will be protected in almost any set of circumstances. I expect Polanco will get pushed to AA at some point this season but it will be based on merit not just taking a look at a guy. Polanco has a huge upside as a fast solid defensive center fielder with plus power so the Pirates would be crazy not to protect him.

Next In Line: Brandon Cumpton, Matt Curry, Gift Ngoepe, Adalberto Santos

The four players listed in this group all look like fairly safe bets to become solid major league contributors. Now that doesn’t mean star or even starter but any of these four it would appear could hold down a 25 man roster spot next season and produce at least some value and for that reason each one would be at risk of getting selected and is therefore a candidate to be added. Cumpton, Curry and Santos are all candidates to start in AAA but I would say Curry is the only lock to do so. Ngoepe appears likely to start in AA but could be held back in A+. The Pirates will take a long look at each of these players and decide whether to protect them or not at the end of the season. None of these players has the ceiling of a star but all could be quality depth for the Pirates next season. Cumpton looks like a possible 5th starter or middle reliever. Curry appears to have the upside of a Casey Kotchman type first baseman meaning one who can hit decently but not for a lot of power; most players of this type quickly fizzle out though. Ngoepe has a great glove but will need his bat to develop some in order to become a starting major league option but even if it doesn’t he might be able to find a role as a defensive middle infielder off the bench. Santos is quite simply a professional hitter but one who doesn’t have a true position. Santos has hit at every level but has shown very little power and is not really good defensively anywhere. His ability to hit though and his experience at 2B and in the OF could make him a decent bench bat though.

Possible Relievers: Casey Sadler, Zach Thornton, Jason Townsend, Tyler Waldron

Every year it seems the Pirates protect one pitcher from the Rule V draft who is a bit of a head scratcher. Some times that is a player who was previously eligible and other times it is a first time eligible player. There are too many previous eligible candidates to discuss but of the first time eligible ones the above four currently appear to me to be the most likely to be added to the 40 man roster at the end of the season. I won’t say too much about each of these players individually but they all fit the typical mold of being right handed pitchers who throw in the mid 90s and to date haven’t posted the numbers (especially strike out numbers) that one would like to see from them. Although to be fair Thornton did have a a good strike out rate last season but he was a little old for the level he did it at. All four of these pitchers are likely to start the season in AA and with the exception of Sadler they will all likely be pitching from relief. Sadler is by far the most polished of the group and it could be argued he belongs with the next in line class but unlike the four I listed I don’t think he could necessarily stick for an entire season. If any of these four make an impression with the Pirates and keep in mind that isn’t necessarily only statistics I could see them being protected.

Projects: Zack Dodson, Mel Rojas, Zach Von Rosenberg

At the time these players were drafted all of them were considered to have high ceilings but to date none of them have progressed much and 2013 will serve as a defining year for them. The ceilings these players once were to said to had are still there and outside of Polanco these 3 probably have the most talent of the bunch (with possibly one exception below). Currently I have all 3 projected to start the season at A+ but Rojas could be pushed to AA and Dodson could be held back in A ball once his suspension ends. The players who do wind up starting in A+ I imagine will be aggressively pushed once and if they show any signs of progress. Before the Pirates opt to put any of these players on the 40 man roster I imagine they will want to see them against some AA competition. At this point little should be expected of any of these players but each of them has one last chance to show just a glimmer of that upside the Pirates dreamt about when drafting them.

Other Notables: Stetson Allie, Kelson Brown, Dan Grovatt, Justin Howard, Drew Maggi

There are a lot of other players eligible but essentially I see little to no chance of them being added to the roster or selected. That is nearly a year away though so a lot can and probably will change. Of the remaining players the ones above are the names I find the most interesting. With the exception of Allie who I will get to later all of the players have posted solid minor league numbers and will be playing most likely in AA this upcoming season. A good showing in AA could put them on the radar as a possible Rule V selection but right now they all seem like long shots. The other players not listed are players who have largely not developed past A ball yet and while they may have a ton of talent they are too raw to even be considered in this discussion. The one name on my notable list that doesn’t quite fit with the others is Stetson Allie. In his current states and practically any state he’ll be in by the end of the 2013 season Allie is no threat to be selected and obviously will not be protected. Quite a fall from grace for Allie as headed into last season he had the look of one of the Pirates better prospects but now that he failed at pitching and transitioned back to hitting he appears to be not much more than an organizational player. Certainly he has talent but it appears his time to harness and develop that talent has almost ran out.

Older Prospects

Tim Williams at Pirates Prospects has a the 2013 Minor League Spring Training Roster for the Pirates on his site. Every year I look over this list to see if there are any interesting developments like a player being shifted to or from the mound, notable absences or even notable additions from the DSL. For some reason this year nothing like that caught my eye but what did catch my eye was that Tim had the player’s ages listed beside their names. Usually this wouldn’t be a big deal but for some reason it caught my attention. Some players were a few years older or younger than I thought. The I got to thinking about how age plays in a role in how I and everyone else define prospects. I looked over the list and gave this some more thought and concluded that ordinarily a player 25 years old or older is usually considered a non-prospect. Of course there are plenty of exceptions but as a basis it seemed like a good start.

I decided to turn my attention to see just how many players on the roster were indeed 25 and over and what sort of prospect ability they had. In all I counted 27 such players ranging from my base line age of 25 all the way up to 33 years old. Some of these 27 are of course no longer prospects not just because of their age but because of time they have spent in the majors but for most of the dream of reaching the show hasn’t happened yet and at this point for many of them likely never will. Still I thought I’d give a look at them. I didn’t intend to learn in an in-depth profile on each player just gain a casual idea of where they are as a prospect and a professional ball player.

The majority 15 of the 27 players age 25 or over are pitchers. The below list contains no true prospects but there are some intriguing names. I have also included their ages and a little blurb about their background.

Pitchers

Nathaniel Baker, 25: Baker was a 5th round draft choice by the Pirates in 2009. He projects to start the year in AA and remains mildly intriguing mainly because he is left handed pitcher with decent velocity. Baker has split time between starting and relieving but appears best suited for relief.

David Bromberg, 25: Bromberg was signed as a minor league free agent. He has spent the last 3 seasons in the upper levels and has been mildly effective. He looks like a fringy relief pitcher who should serve as minor league depth.

Michael Colla, 26: Colla was drafted by the Pirates in the 14th round of the 2008 draft. He has spent the last two seasons in AA and has put up solid numbers. He has almost purely been a starter in the past but could move to relief in AAA this season.

Roman Colon, 33: Colon had a few seasons as a middle reliever in the majors with poor to average results. For the last three seasons he has hung around in AAA and even played in Korea and served as emergency depth for teams. That appears to be his role going forward.

Zachary Foster, 26: Foster was drafted in the 49th round of the 2008 draft. He has struggled so far in his professional career spending most of his time in A or A+ ball. At this point he is an organizational player and one not likely to make it past the middle levels.

Ethan Hollingsworth, 26: Hollingsworth was taken by the Pirates in this year’s minor league Rule V draft. He has split the last two seasons between AA and AAA and has been decent in AA and poor in AAA. The Pirates likely selected him to serve as depth for the upper levels.

Jeffrey Inman, 25: Inman is one of the more interesting names on this list. He was taken in the 12 round of the 2009 draft but was a more highly regarded pitcher who slipped due to a shoulder injury. He really hasn’t stayed healthy much in his professional career but posted a decent season in AA last year. Considering all his injuries he probably should get an additional year of being considered a borderline relief pitcher prospect.

Kenn Kasparek, 27: Kasparek was drafted by the Mariners in 2008 but found himself in an independent league to begin 2012. The Pirates signed him when they had an opening in A+ ball. He figures to continue serving as a depth reliever for the middle levels.

Elecier Navarro, 25: Navarro is one of Littlefield’s leftovers. He is a small finesse left handed pitcher whose finese stuff has served him well through the lower and middle levels but he has now probably reached his ceiling.

Aaron Poreda, 26: Poreda is one of only two pitchers on this list who has pitched in the majors. He is however a bit different from Colon. The Pirates acquired him in 2011 minor league Rule V draft but before that he was once a highly regarded prospect. He was a key part of the Jake Peavy deal between the Padres and White Sox but when Poreda arrived with the Padres he suddenly lost his control. Since the trade Poreda has spent most of his time pitching in AA or AAA and putting up some very high walk rates, his other numbers though have been relatively speaking fairly solid.

Aaron Pribanic, 26: Pribanic is the last player remaining the Pirates got from the Jack Wilson trade. His first three years with the Pirates were fairly solid but he essentially lost all of 2012 due to injury and that has greatly hurt his prospect status. He will likely begin 2013 in AA with one last chance to avoid become an organizational guy.

Luis Sanz, 25: Sanz was signed by the Pirates as a minor league free agent. He has yet to advance past A+ ball and if he does this year it will likely only be because of an extreme lack of depth for AA.

Zach Thornton, 25: Thronton was acquired for Chris Resop this past offseason and is at least a little intriguing. Thornton played last season at the A+ level which he was old for but posted a very high K rate. His ability to miss bats make him a tad bit interesting. He should start the 2013 season in the AA bullpen.

Erik Turgeon, 26: The Pirates signed Turgeon to a minor league contract last year to fill in a hole at the A+ level. He pitched well at the A+ level but had already logged significant playing time above that level. He has some ability to miss bats but at this point looks like an organizational player.

Philippe Valiquette, 26: Valiquette was signed by the Pirates as a minor league free agent this offseason. Usually he would fall into the same category as the others but he is a little special as he is a left handed pitcher who has hit triple digits with his fastball in the past. That skill alone will keep teams hoping on for at least another season or two.

In addition to the 15 pitchers I have discussed there are 12 position players who fit the description of being 25 years or older and in the minor league camp.

Hitters

Charles Cutler, 26: Cutler was selected by the Pirates in the minor league Rule V draft in 2011. Last season he served as a backup catcher in AA and put up some decent numbers. Cutler put up strong numbers in the lower levels but struggled in his first trip to AA in 2010. He has repeated the level the last two seasons and done well. I would like to see what he could do at AAA but the consensus seems to be that he is an organizational catcher.

Devin Ivany, 30: Ivany was signed by the Pirates as a minor league free agent this offseason. Over the last three seasons he has spent most of his time at AA where he has been fairly average. Ivany is proof that minor league catchers tend to hang around for a while due to teams always needing them to help work with young pitchers.

Miguel Perez, 29: Perez is another organizational catcher but he did get a cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2005. His playing days appear to be over, short a string of injuries as he is slated to serve as a bullpen coach and bullpen catcher in one of the upper levels in 2013.

Kelson Brown, 25: Brown is one of the more interesting players on this list. He was drafted in the 34th round by the Pirates during the 2012 draft. Since starting his professional career the Pirates have used Brown as a utility player/ organizational player but he has hit well at each level including AA last season. There doesn’t seem to be a spot for him at AAA to begin the season so he will probably repeat AA at some point in 2012. He has the look of an organizational player but he has no glaring weakness so he can’t be completely written off.

Jeremy Farrell, 26: Farrell is the son of the Boston Red Sox manager and was drafted by the Pirates in the 8th round of the 2008 draft. He has spent the last two seasons in AA where he has been average at best. The Pirates really don’t have a clear-cut choice for 3B in AA this year though so he might get one last chance at some consistent playing time.

Jeff Larish, 30: Larish played in the majors from 2008-2010 spending some time in AAA as well and had his moments but was a below average player overall. He has hung around the last two years serving as a AAA utility player and that will be his role once again in 2013.

Alex Valdez, 28: The Pirates signed Valdez as a minor league free agent this offseason. He spent 2010 and 2011 putting up mediocre numbers in AA and AAA but in 2012 he played in the Mexican league and put up a fairly impressive line. As I stated earlier the Pirates don’t really have a stand out option for 3rd base at the AA level so Valdez could see some playing time there.

Andy Vasquez, 25: Vasquez is a leftover from the Littlefield days. He appeared to be on his way out of baseball in 2009-10 but he has rebounded by putting up two solid seasons the past two years in A and A+. He looks like a decent utility player for A+/AA and will likely compete for a spot there in 2013.

Brett Carroll, 30: Carroll has the most distinguished major league career of anyone on this list to date. That isn’t to say it was good but he has appeared in a major league game at least once every year since 2007 so he has at least been hanging around the fringes. Carroll hasn’t hit well in his major league time and outside of a 2011 stint with the Brewers AAA teams hasn’t even hit well in AAA the past four seasons. He’ll compete for time in the AAA outfield in 2013 but faces an uphill climb.

Justin Howard, 25: Howard is a player I like a fair amount. The Pirates drafted him in the 24th round of the 2010 draft. He isn’t really much of a prospect because defensively he is limited to 1B (or maybe RF) and he has very little power. He is a fairly decent hitter though as he was probably one of the best hitters the Pirates had the A+ level last season. Still he profiles as an organizational guy and will likely serve as a bench player in AA in 2013.

Carlos Mesa, 25: Mesa defected from Cuba and was signed by the Pirates in 2011. He was relatively old when he defected and in two seasons hasn’t made it past the A+ level. He really hasn’t been good either but he will likely continue to serve as a backup option for the A and A+ levels in 2013.

Adalberto Santos, 25: The exception that proves the rule that 25 year old players aren’t typically prospects. Santos was drafted by the Pirates in the 22nd round of the 2012 draft. He was red-shirted as a freshman so he spent 5 years in college and was nearly 23 when selected. Obviously not much was expected from him but Santos has raked at every level. A knee injury kept him out for a significant amount of last season but he still hit very well at the AA level. Santos is deserving of a chance to prove himself at the AAA level this season. His lack of power limits his ceiling as a major leaguer but his good contact ability could make him an intriguing 4th outfielder and bat off the bench.

So there you have it the 27 players 25 years and older currently in the Pirates minor league camp. They will undoubtedly be joined by more as players get sent down but those will be players with slightly better pedigrees and better chances of making it back or in some rare cases to the show. The players I listed, for the most part have either seen their major league days come and go or are likely to never the big leagues but yet they keep playing for what must be the love of the game. I have always been a little fascinated with the career minor league. If he reaches a high enough level he might get a decent pay check but these guys by and by aren’t bringing in huge sums of money and the dream I’m sure they all had of reaching the show is out of their grasp but yet they continue to solider on filling an important but often overlooked role in professional baseball. The above 27 players aren’t glamorous and feature one average prospect, a couple of fringy prospects, a few past their prime fringe major leaguers and a fair amount of minor league veterans. It may not seem like an inspirational group but I always take a little bit of solace in knowing that these kind of professional athletes exist.