2013 Expectations: Left and Center Field
Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.
The Pirates super star. Instead of asking what should we expect from him it might be better to ask what we shouldn’t expect from him. And what we shouldn’t expect is a repeat of last season. It is going to be very difficult for McCutchen to have as good as of a 2013 as he did a 2012 but at the same time I wouldn’t say it is impossible for him to do better. I’m not quite sure we have seen McCutchen at his best yet but even so just with the variation one expects from year to year 2012 will be a very difficult one to top. Make no mistake about it we should expect McCutchen to continue to be one of the best players in the game and I have great confidence that he will continue to do so. He is a rare and special talent and us Pirates fans are lucky to have a player of his caliber on our club. No other franchise has a player quite like him. Now as for what is a reasonable expectation from McCutchen this season. I see a solid 6.0 WAR season with more consistency and improved defense being a fair projection for our superstar. As far as a slash line goes something in the .290/.370/.480 ranges feels like a nice conservative estimate with something like .310/.380/.520 being a bit more optimistic projection. Bottom line here is that we should expect Andrew McCutchen to continue being well Andrew McCutchen.
With the possible exception of Pedro Alvarez and of course Andrew McCutchen no player will have a greater impact on the success or failure of the Pittsburgh Pirates than Starling Marte. As I have previously stated the Pirates desperately need a second true impact hitter and while Alvarez appears to be the most logical choice to become that, Marte isn’t far behind as the Pirates second most realistic option. Marte no doubt has a huge upside and in fact at is very best may be near the level of Andrew McCutchen with less bat and more glove, however it is unfair to expect that from Marte during his first full year. It is fair though to expect Marte to be a very valuable player though basically just because of his speed and defense alone. Just those aspect alone couple with a mediocre performance at the plate probably makes Marte a 2.0-2.5 WAR player. In reality we should expect to see some offensive value from Marte though and that likely bumps him up into the 3.0-3.5 WAR range with the potential for more. As far as his overall game is concerned I think we should reasonably expect to see great defense out of left field and a legitimate threat on the bases. His high strike out rate and relatively low walk rate means he might not be too effective in the lead off role the Pirates appear to plan to use him in but the value is still there. As for a slash line it is difficult to say just what to expect but as a floor a .260/.310/.420 line seems reasonable to me. Couple that in with about 1o home runs and 20 steals and the Pirates have themselves a very dynamic player with the potential to do much more.
The Pirates have plenty of other outfielders but they are all involved in what is the right field mess. Some of the right fielders are bound to spend some time in left field and will probably be the first called upon to do so should poor performance or injury become an issue but the only other player I feel comfortable calling a left or center fielder right now is Felix Pie. Pie was signed to a minor league contract this offseason and in a lot of other years would have a reasonable shot at winning a bench job with the Pirates. This year his chances are essentially none and it would in fact be a little surprising to see him in a Pirates uniform at any point in 2013. Right now the expectation for Felix Pie has to be that he will go to AAA and serve as depth and probably split time between left and center field. Pie is a very talented player that just hasn’t reached his potential. There is a very small chance, almost non-existent, that he finally puts it together this season and gets promoted bases on his talent alone but that would be a bit of a miracle.