I’m going to keep this brief. Quite simple its been a long time since I’ve been this angry over a Pirates move. I just see no upside whatsoever in this move. I mean sure maybe Martin comes in a plays decent defense the next two seasons and gives us an OPS in the vicinity of 700. That would be an upgrade over last season and could possibly be worth somewhere near the money the Pirates are giving him. But the point is that is Martin’s likely ceiling with the Pirates over the next two seasons.
Martin has seen his walk rate drop in recent seasons, his strike out rate rise and his batting average fall. His power wasn’t anything too special while with the Dodgers in 2009 and 2010 and only hit a resurgence when he went to the offensive friendly Yankee Stadium. He isn’t going to continue to hit with that kind of power in PNC park. Twenty home runs and a .400 slugging percentage is just simply out of the question. If Martin hits 12 HR and slugs .350 we should consider ourselves lucky. I believe an optimistic projection for Martin next season is a triple slash line of .240/.340/.360 and that is the optimist projection realistically I see it being more like .220/.320/.340.
Maybe Martin can prove me wrong but I just don’t see how he is going to do so. His defensive value is going to be limited by how the Pirates handle their pitching staff and his offensive value is going to be limited by PNC Park. Spending 17 million dollars on Martin is at best a very poor misuse of valuable resources and at worst an albatross of a contract. In my mind this is a sign of desperation by Huntington and if he starts acting out in desperation he is a larger threat to the Pirates than he is an asset. The positive news of this signing is that it was only 2 years so Huntington’s replacement next season will only have to put up with the deal for one season before being able to reallocate the valuable resources elsewhere.
As you can probably tell I am outraged by this move right now but I’m sure some of that can be cooled down tomorrow. The Pirates have some arbitration decisions to make tomorrow and if they tender Karstens I’ll accept this move as a terrible misuse of assets but if they don’t the tone of this blog will likely be changing over the next couple of weeks. It makes no sense to give 17 million dollars to a declining catcher who improves the team at best only minimally and then turn around and refuse to give 4-5 million to a solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher. After all these years you would think I’d be numb to all of this but some days like today it just sucks to be a Pirates fan.
P.S. I hope for nothing more than to be proven wrong by Russell Martin. Please revert back to your 2007-2008 form. I’ll have no shame in admitting I’m wrong if you do so but I just don’t see any conceivable way that happens.