Results tagged ‘ Matt Hague ’

The 2008 Draft

When it comes to evaluating how well a draft worked out for a franchise be it baseball, football, hockey, basketball or really any other sport I am one who always feels that 5 years is a fairly reasonable time frame. Of course in baseball and to some extent hockey the evaluations have to be done a little differently because not everyone from those drafts are going to be established players but for the most part we should have a fairly good idea as to what kind of player they are. Typically speaking I think the 5th professional year for a draft class, particularly and MLB one is a huge year. The quick risers are likely in their 3rd pro season or so, the slow risers are likely entering their first full season or just ready to contribute and the wildcards are likely on their final chance. Its been five years since Neal Huntington’s first draft class and of course 2013 will be that class’s 5th full year of professional baseball experience. So according to my rule of thumb it should be a big year for them and indeed it is. To my research there are twelve players who still have at least some level of significance to the Pirates franchise, I have broken down those 12 into 6 different categories and will discuss what the 2013 season holds for them. Think of this as a primer for what to look for out of the 2008 draft class this season.

Organizational Players: Benjamin Gonzalez, Jeremy Farrell, Zachary Foster

Essentially this group has no expectations for the 2013 season. The three above players were drafted and signed in 2008 but have evolved into organizational filler; they will likely serve as bench depth or bullpen arms for one or multiple levels in 2013. They aren’t expected to contribute to the major league team and at this point really have no discernible prospect value. +

Wildcards: Jarek Cunningham, Quinton Miller

Cunningham and Miller are not that far from bien organizational players but both remain in the system and unlike the three organizational players I have listed do have somewhat of a ceiling. Cunningham is capable of playing 2B and has plus power for the position and Miller was a fairly highly regarded prep pitcher at the time he was drafted. Both of them face uphill climbs to ever make the majors let alone become a significant contributor there but each of them have enough upside that they will have essentially one last chance to rebound in 2013 and show they have some value. Miller is likely to work out of the bullpen at A+, a level he’ll be playing at for a 3rd season and at 23 years old is pushing the high side for a prospect at that level. If he shows signs of progress the Pirates may opt to send him to AA early on to give him one last chace but that appears highly unlikely. Cunningham is a little farther along than Miller as he will likely repeat AA this season and should be the starting 2B. At 23 years old he isn’t a terrible age for the AA level but another failed year could prove costly to the little prospect status he has remaining. There is a little more hope for Cunningham than Miller as he showed progress last season with his plate discipline, if he can manage to build off that, refind his power and stay healthy (something that has been a struggle for him) there is a chance he could regain his prospect status. Cunningham is facing an uphill climb but it appears he at least has a fighting chance.

Major League Depth: Matt Hague, Michael Colla

Not much to say about these two. Hague and Colla are essentially organizational players but they have advanced far enough along that either one could be potential non horrible at the major league level meaning they will serve as depth in 2013. Hague is well known by Pirates fans because of his hot spring training last year and the fact he subsequently made the Pirates bench. He struggled with his chances with the big club though and spent most of 2012 in AAA. Hague doesn’t really profile to hit for much power so his ceiling at the major league level is limited. Hague will almost certainly start the 2013 season off in AAA but this year he won’t have a starting position and will be forced into a utility role. The utility role could be a good thing for Hague though as his best chance of making it back to the majors is probably as a utility player who can make decent contact. Colla has spent the last two years in the AA rotation. His numbers over that time are actually fairly decent. In reality he doesn’t profile as a starter and unless he returns to AA for another season will not be one in 2013 but as a reliever he has a chance to become a decent depth middle reliever who could fill in at the major league level when injuries or ineffectiveness occurs. Colla and Hague don’t come with much upside and aren’t really players that will determine if the 2008 draft was a success or failure but 2013 will be a pivotal year in determining whether either one can carve out some sort of a major league career.

Slow Movers: Justin Wilson, Jordy Mercer, Chase d’Arnaud

Wilson, Mercer and d’Arnaud are ultimately going to play a large role in determining how well the 2008 draft worked for the Pirates. A good rule of thumb is that a good draft should give you 3 solid major league contributors. Well the Pirates have one who we will discuss later and have one more who could pay some dividends for them at the major league level but if they are to get any additional help from this class it is going to have to come from these three players. Wilson undoubtedly has the highest upside of the bunch as if he were able to find some control he has the stuff to be a top of the rotation arm. Mercer and d’Arnaud look like their ceiling is likely a major league average shortstop and that may be pushing it. At the end of the day three solid major league contributors doesn’t mean three superstars essentially if the team is able to draft one very good regular, a solid back end reliever and a good bench option it has had a decent year. None of these three except maybe Wilson look like they will develop into a solid regular but they all look like potential secondary pieces. Each player has two options remaining meaning they could in theory be brought back next season if they fail to establish themselves but in reality this is a big year for all three. Should any of them not establish themselves as at least a serviceable major league player they will be in great risk of being removed from the roster after the season and unless claimed by another team that usually severely hurts a player’s chances of having a good major league career.

Traded: Robbie Grossman (Wandy Rodriguez)

The importance of Robbie Grossman who was the key piece in the Wandy Rodriguez deal might often get overlooked when discussing the success or failure of the 2013 draft but it shouldn’t be. Grossman may no longer be in the system but the reason teams have prospects is not for only developing them for their own use but for using them to acquire major league talent through trades, in short they are assets. How Grossman performs this season is largely irrelevant to how the Pirates 2008 draft should be viewed but how his return, Wandy Rodriguez, performs is in my mind a critical part of it. Rodriguez is an established major league and a good performances by him in 2013 will help push up the value the Pirates were able to get out of the 2008 draft. As I stated this will be often overlooked but in my mind the return for Robbie Grossman may very well end up being the 2nd most important aspect of the 2008 draft.

Fast Movers: Pedro Alvarez

At the end of the day the performance of the other 11 players I’ve discussed mean very little compared to the draft 1st round pick. The success or failure of that draft will forever be linked to how Alvarez performs in his career as a Pirate. Last season saw some encouraging progress from Alvarez at the major league level but the strike out rate was too high. Alvarez at this point is an established major league player and looks like he has a strong chance of developing into a regular however his upside is so much more. He possess the power needed to develop into a true impact bat. This upcoming 2013 season will be crucial to his development. If he is able to build off his success in 2012 Alvarez begins looking like a cornerstone player but if he struggles like he did in 2011 he will once again look like a big bust. As his fortunes go so will the fate of the 2008 draft. Even in an optimist scenario where Wilson develops into a solid middle of the rotation arm, Mercer is able to be a decent place holder at the shortstop position for a year or two, d’Arnaud starts to hit and becomes a good spark plug off the bench, Cunningham regains his prospect value and Hague or Colla carves out a major league niche for themselves the 2008 draft will still feel light on talent if Alvarez fails to produce. In order for him to be a success and by extension the 2008 draft Alvarez doesn’t have to perform all that  much better than his 2012 numbers going forward but he has to prove that he can that type of player and not be subject to wild down seasons like 2011; building off of 2012 and taking another step, even a small step forward would go a long way in proving just that.

Projecting the AAA Roster

Predicting minor league rosters can be a tricky exercise because there are often a lot more options than there are actual spots. The Pirates have roughly 35 players per level who it would make sense to assign to that particular team but obviously you can have 25 at a time. Now at some point during the season it is possible, even likely, that all the players will appear but when talking about original assignments that is not the case. With that disclaimer aside I am going to give my best approximation of what the Pirates minor league rosters will look like this upcoming season. For the record when filling out minor league rosters I go with the standard 8 starters, 5 starting pitchers and 7 relievers. The bench is made of a DH, backup catcher, reserve infielder, reserve outfielder and a utility player.

Catcher

Candidates: Tony Sanchez, Ali Solis, Lucas May

Analysis: The starting catcher is an easy one to peg here. Barring an injury on the major league level Tony Sanchez will start the year in AAA and serve as the regular starting catcher. There is little to no debate about this. Now who will be his backup is a bit more uncertain but it appears likely that it will either be Lucas May or Ali Solis. May has more experience in AAA and even in the majors and Solis is the better defensive catcher. Both will likely spend some time in AAA this year and are probably the 4th and 5th options to see time in the majors should a slew of injuries occur.

Prediction: Tony Sanchez

Infielders

Candidates: Matt Curry, Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Jeff Larish, Anderson Hernandez, Ivan De Jesus, Brandon Inge, Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Chase d’Arnaud, Jared Goedert, Alex Valdez, Jeremy Farrell

Analysis: That is a lot of bodies for 4 starting infield positions. Chances are two of the above players will be on the major league bench, currently I have Harrison and Mercer projected to be there so they can probably be safely dismissed. As far as prospects go the only ones listed above are Curry, Robinson, De Jesus and Mercer and those 4 are more fringe prospects than anything. The Pirates could opt to go a lot of different ways here and at this point it is difficult to figure out just what the plan is.

Predcition: Matt Curry (1B), Ivan De Jesus (2B), Brandon Inge (3B), Chase d’Arnaud (SS)

Outfielders

Candidates: Alex Presley, Jerry Sands, Felix Pie, Darren Ford, Brad Hawpe, Adalberto Santos, Brett Carroll, Andrew Lambo

Analysis: Some of the infielders could come into play here as well as players like Larish and Goedert have some experience in the outfield corners, however I think the Pirates have enough depth where that is likely not to be an issue at least with the starting roster. Alex Presley and Jerry Sands are candidates to start the year in the majors so if they don’t they will almost certainly get starting jobs in AAA. The only prospects in the above list are Santos and Lambo and both of them could use some more time at AA although I would prefer to see Santos pushed to AAA. The Pirates glut of right fielders makes this a crowded group and the Pirates will have to sort through it before the season begins.

Prediction: Felix Pie (LF), Alex Presley (CF), Jerry Sands (RF)

Bench

Analysis: All of the above candidates who I did not project on to the roster are candidates to be part of the AAA bench. Five players in all will make it with one serving as a semi-regular starter at DH. There are still a bunch of names left so it is difficult to say just how this will go but chances are there will be a backup catcher, backup infielder and backup outfielder with the other two spots either going to utility guys or to someone ton handle the DH spot. There are a lot of ways this could go as well.

Prediction: Clint Robinson (DH), Lucas May (C), Jared Goedert (IF), Darren Ford (OF), Matt Hague (U)

Starting Pitchers

Candidates: Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Colla, Brandon Cumpton, Phillip Irwin, Andy Oliver, Justin Wilson, Brooks Brown, Stolmy Pimentel

Analysis: Once again we have a lot of bodies for a very limited number of spots. Some of these pitchers are candidates to make the majors and some are candidates to start in either the AAA bullpen or AA. Currently I have Locke and Sanchez making the major league squad so I will remove them from the discussion. Chances are any of the Locke, McPherson, Sanchez trio that doesn’t make the majors will be a SP in AAA and chances are so will Cole. With my current prediction that leaves three spots open to the rest of the group that includes some interesting prospects in Irwin, Wilson, Oliver and Pimentel and some fringe starter types in Mazzaro and Gomez.

Prediction: Gerrit Cole, Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson, Andy Oliver, Phillip Irwin

Relief Pitchers

Candidates: The above group, Victor Black, Duke Welker, David Bromberg, Erik Cordier, Kyle Waldrop, Mike Zagurski, Roman Colon, Jeff Inman, Kris Johnson, Ryan Reid

Analysis: I’ll be honest with you there is no way in the world I can try to accurately judge what a minor league bullpen is going to look like so I’m not going to pretend I know anything here. What I’m going to make is just a guess and really nothing more.

Prediction: Victor Black, Duke Welker, Brandon Cumpton, Kyle Waldrop, Vin Mazzaro, Mike Zagurski, Kris Johnson

Projected Roster

C: Tony Sanchez, Lucas May

IF: Matt Curry, Clint Robinson, Matt Hague, Ivan De Jesus, Chase d’Arnaud, Brandon Inge, Jared Goedert

OF: Felix Pie, Alex Presley, Jerry Sands, Darren Ford

SP: Gerrit Cole, Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson, Andy Oliver, Phillip Irwin

RP: Victor Black, Duke Welker, Brandon Cumpton, Kyle Waldrop, Vin Mazzaro, Mike Zagurski, Kris Johnson

The Corners

The Pirates appear pretty set up the middle and there is little to talk about there. Sure the Pirates could seek upgrades but right now they seem content with what they have. A Martin and McKenry tandem behind the plate should provide adequate production, maybe even major league average offense and major league plus defense. Clint Barmes should continue to provide great defense and will hopefully rebound from last season and put a non-horrible OPS somewhere in the .650-.670 range. Not great but adequate. The other two up the middle players Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker are of course key cogs in the Pirates machine.

All of this leaves the corners as the part of the lineup that will determine how well the Pirates do offensively this season. The only certainty appears to be Pedro Alvarez who should once again be manning 3rd base. Even with him there are questions about whether he is ready to hit cleanup and if he can handle left handed pitching well enough to not need platooned. Outside of Alvarez the next closest thing to a certainty is Garrett Jones. There is some speculation he may get dealt before the season begins but right now I doubt that will occur. It seems to be a little unclear whether Jones will be playing 1B or RF and how much he will be allowed to face left handed pitching. Logic seems to suggest he will platoon at 1B and be largely protected from left handers but only time will tell.

With those guys out of the way we are left with a very interesting assortment of players. The Pirates have some prospects who may be ready to help at some point this season, some depth players of varying levels who may at some point get a chance to prove themselves and 5 players fighting for what will likely be 4 positions out of Spring Training.

Prospects

There are only two real prospects who look like they may be ready to significantly contribute to the major league team some time this season. They are Matt Curry at 1B and Adalberto Santos in the OF. Neither is a great prospect but both have shown some ability and could possibly become solid major leaguers. Curry hasn’t shown the ability to hit for as much power as you’d like from a 1B and his defensive ability limits him to the position but even so should Jones be traded for any reason the Pirates would probably consider giving Curry a shot if he shows he can handle AAA pitching. Santos is a slightly different breed. Like Curry he doesn’t profile to hit for much power but throughout his minor league career he has shown a good ability to just plainly hit. With a good showing in AAA anything is possible but it appears Santos may be limited to a bench role and with a little bit of versatility (he has also played 2B) he could be a decent option. The remaining prospects include players such as Quincy Latimore and Andrew Lambo who are probably actually closer to minor league depth at this point but either one could enter into the corner OF, or in Lambo’s case maybe even 1B, equation with a good showing in AAA. It is not a certainty that either will start the season in AAA though. The only other possibility for a corner player would be Alex Dickerson, who will be making his AA debut, but he would need a few very hot months to even realistically enter the conversation.

Depth

The Pirates have numerous depth options who could be called upon should injury or ineffectiveness arise. Jeff Larish and Matt Hague seem to be the most uninteresting of the group. Larish is coming off a poor 2012 campaign and Hague as we saw last year is limited in what he can do. The Pirates did bring in two minor league outfielders who it wouldn’t be shocking to see get a chance at the majors some time this season in Felix Pie and Darren Ford. Ford is a pure speedster and Pie is a once top prospect who has fallen from grace. Both have some talent and either one might be called up if the Pirates sense a need. The last depth player is actually technically still a prospect in Clint Robinson. Robinson has never really gotten a chance to prove himself at the major league level but has hit exceptionally well in the minor leagues. Defensively he is limited to 1B but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing as he has shown some decent power and surprisingly even has shown good plate discipline. Should Jones be traded or forced to play extended time in the outfield expect Robinsons to get the first crack at the 1B job.

Major League Options

The Pirates have 5 major league options who figure to be fighting for 2 starting spots and two bench spots. Starling Marte, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata, Alex Presley and Gaby Sanchez will enter this spring fighting for playing time. Marte appears likely to start the season as the everyday LF but he has no track record and while he was respectable in his brief minor league stint last season it would not be crazy if the Pirates felt he could benefit from some time at AAA. Snider as things stand right now figures to be the starting RF but his spot appears to be in a little bit more jeopardy than Marte’s. Snider performed well immediately after coming over at the trade deadline but struggled after getting injured. It is not quite clear what the Pirates plan to do with him. He is out of options so he will surely make the team but he could be relegated to bench duty should the Pirates opt to start Jones in RF. Jose Tabata is coming off a disappointing season but actually finished the 2012 season rather strongly which gives some hope that he is back to being the Tabata we seen in earlier seasons. As a right handed hitter Tabata figures to probably make the team as the 4th outfielder and platoon with Jones or Snider in right field. If his performance at the end of the season was a sign that he has turned things around Tabata could quickly regain his starting job in RF as his ability to leadoff is something the Pirates are sorely missing. The last outfielder of the group is Alex Presley. Presley has an option remaining so the Pirates will likely use it and send him back to AAA to start the season but he will be given a chance to show what he can do. Presley looks like the prototypical 4th outfielder who can do a little bit of everything but doesn’t really stand out in any area. His skill set is probably better suited to a 4th outfielder role than Tabata’s but given the facts he has an option left and that of Snider and Marte it is most likely that the left handed hitting Snider will need a platoon partner he is probably below Tabata on the depth chart. The last option is Gaby Sanchez. As things stand right now Sanchez appears slotted to be Jones platoon partner at 1B. As someone who has consistently hit very well against lefties that is probably a good position for him. If Sanchez performs well he could be given a chance to start everyday at 1B which would force most likely Snider out of the lineup.

Recap

The four corner positions are likely to have a huge impact on the Pirates this season. With Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones the Pirates hope to have some stability and certainty at 2 of the 4 positions but the other 2 remain rather big question marks. The Pirates are undoubtedly planning to give Marte and Snider the two highest upside players of the bunch a chance to fill those question marks but should they fail the Pirates do have some other alternatives who will hopefully step up and take advantage of the opportunity. Assuming the Pirates actually do add a good starter for the middle of the rotation is is my opinion that the performance of the players I have discussed is what will decided whether this team once again finishes below 500, makes the playoffs or anything in between.

Roster Decisions

In addition to trying to figure out the best way to supplement their roster externally the Pirates will have some internal decisions to make about their roster coming up. Basically the status of every internal player who may be on the 40 man roster can be broken down into 5 categories: 1) Rule V draft eligible 2) 0-3 Years Experience 3) Arbitration Eligible 4) Under Contract 5) Free Agents

Rule V Draft Eligible

As always there are a lot of players eligible for the Rule V draft but in reality I think only 5 have a chance at being added to the 40 man roster and of the rest few have any chance of being selected. The five players in this group are:

Tony Sanchez, C

Ramon Cabrera, C

Gift Ngoepe, SS

Phillip Irwin, SP

Victor Black, RP

Analysis: It is essentially a guarantee that both Sanchez and Black will be added to the roster and I feel almost as confident in saying that Phillip Irwin will be added as well. Cabrera and Ngoepe are the two interesting ones for me. Normally teams do not select a catcher in the Rule V draft and if they do I would think most would look for a strong defensive one so that he could at least provide that value as a backup, Cabrera is shaky defensively making it seem unlikely to me that he would be selected. Due to this I think the Pirates leave him off the roster. Ngoepe is very raw and may not be ready for a spot in AA let alone the majors but good fielding, light hitting middle infielders are fairly common selections in the Rule V draft meaning there is at least some chance Ngoepe would be selected. Due to this and the fact the Pirates seem to view Ngoepe as a legit prospect I wouldn’t be surprised to see him added, however since he is so raw right now I’m going to lean towards the side that the Pirates will not add him to the 40 man roster, though this one is a tough call.

0-3 Years Experience

This is the group that the Pirates can elect to retain for any salary that wish above the league minimum. Typically first year players earn the league minimum and players who have been on the roster a little longer earn a touch more. These players have no salary concern so the only real question is are they good enough to stay on the roster. The Pirates of course have a lot of players in this category:

Chris Leroux, Michael McKenry, Tony Watson, Josh Harrison, Alex Presley, Jared Hughes, Rick VandenHurk, Gustavo Nunez, Travis Snider, Jordy Mercer, Starling Marte, Kyle McPherson, Brock Holt, Eric Fryer, Jeff Clement, Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, Bryan Morris, Chase d’Arnaud, Yamaico Navarro, Daniel McCutchen, Matt Hague, Duke Welker

Some of the above will obviously be retained while others their future with the club is murky at best.

Will Be Retained: Michael McKenry, Tony Watson, Josh Harrison, Alex Presley, Jared Hughes, Travis Snider, Jordy Mercer, Starling Marte, Kyle McPherson, Brock Holt, Jeff Locke, Justin Wilson, Bryan Morris, Duke Welker

Uncertain Future: Chris Leroux, Rick VandenHurk, Gustavo Nunez, Eric Fryer, Jeff Clement, Chase d’Arnaud, Yamaico Navarro, Daniel McCutchen, Matt Hague

Analysis: The first group that is consists of players I believe will definitely be retained is pretty self-explanatory. Some of the players are going to be expected to be key contributors (McKenry, Watson, Hughes, Snider, Marte, McPherson, Locke, Morris) while others will be brought back as depth (Harrison, Presley, Mercer, Holt, Wilson, Welker). The second group is the more interesting one when it comes to roster decisions. Not all of them will be let go but I believe a large number of them will be. Of the second group I believe Chris Leroux’s spot is the most secure as I seem him being in line to be the long relief man out of the bullpen next season. The removal of anyone else would not come as a surprise to me but I’m leaning toward d’Arnaud and McCutchen being retained and the rest being left go. Navarro and Hague were not brought up in September which says the Pirates aren’t too high on them. VandenHurk and Clement looked pretty bad during their short stints in September. I think it is nearly certain Clement will be gone but VandenHurk has a chance at staying. I can’t imagine the Pirates attempting to carry Nunez next year under his Rule V restrictions so I expect him to be gone. Finally Fryer seems rather exppendable with Sanchez and possibly Cabrera being added to the roster. As for McCutchen I think he stays since he has another option left and can be a fungible 9th or 10th bullpen option who can be stashed in AAA and d’Arnaud stays because he started to show some signs of getting back on track near the end of the season.

Arbitration Eligible

These are the players who go into next year not under contract but still under Pirates control but they can not just be assigned a salary. Typically this group makes up a rather large chunk of the Pirates payroll for a season and this season will be the same thing. This year’s arbitration class is:

Joel Hanrahan

Jeff Karstens

Charlie Morton

Garrett Jones

Chris Resop

James McDonald

Neil Walker

Gaby Sanchez

The Pirates will have to decide who of the above will be worth the salary they are likely to command through the arbitration process. I believe 5 of the above 8 players will definitely be tendered while the other 3 all have at least a chance to be. For the first time in a while I see no blatantly obvious non-tenders.

Will Be Tendered: Joel Hanrahan, Garrett Jones, James McDonald, Neil Walker, Gaby Sanchez

Might Not Be Tendered: Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, Chris Resop

Analysis: Each player in the first group will be tendered a contract by the Pirates that is all but guaranteed but there are questions about all of them such as will they play with the Pirates in 2013 and if so what will their role be? Walker seems to be the most stable but his back issues throw even his status into question. Of the other I can’t see the Pirates not tendering Karstens but there has been a lot of talk that suggests that such a thing is possible. I could see them tendering and then trading him or trading him before he needs to be tendered (ala Jose Veras) but not just non-tendering him. Morton is the one who I believe has the strongest chance of being non-tendered. His injury is going to keep him out until at least the middle of the year and paying a pitcher of Morton’s quality probably just a little under 3 million for a few months of work is something the Pirates shouldn’t do. I suspect that the Pirates and Morton will try to work out a minor league contract though so he remains in the organization. Resop is the ultimate 50/50 propositions. He is likely going to cost somewhere between 1-1.5 million this season which isn’t bad but he is a middle reliever who struggled to miss bats this season so the Pirates could choose to move on and go with a younger/cheaper option. Of this group I expect Hanrahan and Karstens to be traded, Morton to be non-tendered but signed back on a minor league deal, Resop to be non-tendered and probably sign elsewhere and the other 4 to return and play a significant role with the 2013 Pirates.

Under Contract

The Pirates have what I believe is for them an abnormally high number of players under contract for next season. Granted that is only 5 players plus 2 options but still that seems a touch higher than past year’s but then again I could be wrong on that front. Anyway those players are:

Under Contract: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Clint Barmes

Has An Option: Pedro Alvarez, Rod Barajas

Analysis: First lets deal with the option year players because they are rather simple to evaluate. Alvarez’s option will of course be picked up and Barajas’s will of course be declined. Unfortunately I am not ready to rule out the possibility of the Pirates resigning Barajas at a lower rate. As for the players under contract Burnett and Rodriguez will be back and headlining the front of the rotation and McCutchen will continue to be the face of the franchise and the key player in the lineup. Tabata and Barmes are two players the Pirates may look to move but I’ll expect both will be back Barmes as the starting shortstop (hopefully sharing playing time with someone else) and Tabata as the 4th outfielder possibly splitting time in right field with Travis Snider.

Free Agents

The Pirates have 4 players on their roster who are going to be free agents and while it is not the Pirates way to resign players they deserve mention here as well. The 4 players are:

Free Agents: Kevin Correia, Jason Grilli, Hisanori Takahashi, Chad Qualls

Analysis: I don’t see any way Correia will return; I can see the Pirates possibly wanting him back but I don’t think that feeling will be mutual. Takahashi and Qualls are two fungible relievers whom the Pirates could possibly consider resigning when it comes time to cobble a bullpen together but I expect that they will go another direction. The last player, Jason Grilli, is one I expect the Pirates to make a serious effort to try and resign. It would not be wise for the Pirates to sign Grilli to a big contract but something in the neighborhood of 2 years and 8 million dollars could make a whole lot of sense. However I believe we have seen our last of Grill and that the back of the bullpen will have a very different look next season.

Recap

So there you have it. Below I’m going to post a summary of whom I predict will be affected by these internal roster decisions.

Rule V Players Added: Tony Sanchez, Phillip Irwin, Victor Black

League Min Players Let Go: Rick VandenHurk, Gustavo Nunez, Eric Fryer, Jeff Clement, Yamaico Navarro, Matt Hague

Arbitration Eligible Players Not Tendered: Charlie Morton, Chris Resop

Options Not Picked Up: Rod Barajas

Players Traded: Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens

Players Leaving Via Free Agency: Jason Grilli, Kevin Correia, Chad Qualls, Hisanori Takahashi

It Is Time

I’ve been an opponent of it since its inception but I can’t fight it anymore. The time has come the Pirates really have no other choice. Say it with me Pirate Twitter Nation, #FreeMattHague

I was a proponent of letting Jones and McGehee give it a go this offseason but that has failed (as with most of the rest of the offense). Help could of course come via a trade but with that being unlikely to happen in May the Pirates must give Matt Hague his chance, he has earned it. I’m not talking a bench role or platoon, give him the 1B job out right. He deserves the chance.

To make room I would send Navarro down to AAA and get him everyday at bats at 3B. Jones would become my primary RF although a platoon partner would still be needed. McGehee he would become a full time bench player. To address the platoon problem I would DFA McLouth and call up Jake Fox but even Josh Harrison or Gorkys Hernandez would suffice.

Set the lineup something like:

Tabata, LF

Walker, 2B

McCutchen, CF

Alvarez, 3B

Jones/Fox, RF

Hague, 1B

Barajas, C

Barmes, SS

I would like to see Harrison take away some playing time from Barmes at SS but you have to give Barmes a chance to figure it out. Let Harrison continue his super utility job. Really this is probably just shuffling deck chairs but its rather obvious something needs to be done. There isn’t much at AAA but there is one guy who has earned his shot.

It Is Time!

#FreeMattHague

Top 20 Position Player Prospects

Just my opinion but …

1 Starling Marte, OF
2 Josh Bell, OF
3 Robbie Grossman, OF
4 Tony Sanchez, C
5 Jordy Mercer, SS
6 Jarek Cunningham, 2B
7 Alex Dickerson, 1B
8 Matt Curry, 1B
9 Yamaico Navarro, 3B
10 Matt Hague, 1B
11 Mel Rojas Jr, OF
12 Jose Ozuna, 1B
13 Willy Garcia, OF
14 Drew Maggi, SS
15 Gorkys Hernandez, OF
16 Alen Hanson, SS
17 Ramon Cabrera, C
18 Brock Holt, 2B
19 Elevys Gonzalez, 3B
20 Gift Ngoepe, 2B

What To Do With Alvarez & Hague

Let me start by saying that at this very moment I am in favor of letting Alvarez start at 3B in the majors and sending down Hague to start the season as the AAA first baseman. I will also add that I know you can not read much of anything into Spring Training numbers. However I am slowly turning to the opinion that allowing Hague to start the season in the majors and having Alvarez start off in the minors may not be that bad of an idea.  I am now going to try to defend this opinion. First lets start by looking at both players current spring training numbers.

Alvarez: .167/.192/.417, 24 AB, 1 BB, 10 SO

Hague: .375/.375/.625, 24 AB, 0 BB, 4 SO

As I said I know very little can be gained from Spring Training stats but nonetheless a strikeout rate of 42% makes me very nervous about Alvarez this season. Meanwhile I don’t read too much into Hague’s spring training numbers but the performance he put up in AAA last season, .309/.372/.457 show me that he has nothing left to prove in AAA and deserves a chance in the majors.

Combine Hague’s performance last season with Alvarez’s struggles and also with the likelihood that McGehee will bonce back and the idea of starting Alvarez in AAA and Hague in the majors doesn’t seem so crazy. The way I see it this would give the Pirates a lineup of something like:

Tabata, RF

Presley, LF

McCutchen, CF

McGehee, 3B

Walker, 2B

Hague, 1B

Barajas, C

Barmes, SS

That is not a great lineup but if McGehee does bounce back and Hague manages to hold his own that lineup will be good enough to win games with good pitching from the rotation.

Now as for the bench if this were to happen I think the bench would have to look like:

McKenry, C

Harrison, 2B/3B

Navarro, 2B/SS/3B/OF

Jones, 1B/OF

McLouth, OF

2012 Expectations – 1st Base

STARTER

Garrett Jones: As of right now it appears Jones will be the larger part of a platoon at first base, meaning he should start roughly 70% of the games. Last season as part of a platoon in right field Jones did his job posting a .808 OPS against right handed pitching. There is no reason to think that Jones should not put up similar numbers this season. Jones is not a player you want starting everyday but as part of a platoon he could prove to be a useful player. I am expecting him to produce similar numbers to last year, maybe actually slightly above meaning I could see an .820 OPS against righties and a .770 OPS overall. He will also provide the power we know he is capable of (15-20 HR). Bottom line Jones will do what any sensible person would expect him to do.

PLATOON PARTNER

Casey McGehee: He will likely be the smaller half of the 1st base platoon meaning he should receive about 30% of the starts. McGehee is the great wildcard here. If he puts up numbers similar to 2011 the Pirates will once again have below average production from first base. However if he puts up his 2009/10 numbers he can supplant Jones and become the everyday first baseman. Chances are though that the results will be somewhere in between meaning he will be a useful platoon partner for Garrett Jones. I am thinking there is a good chance McGehee posts an OPS against left handed pitchers in the upper 700s or even above 800. With McGehee’s power (10-15 HR in a part time role) combined with Jones the Pirates could manage to get league average production from their 1st baseman, although slightly below is the safer bet.

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH

Nick Evans: Evans was signed as an NRI this offseason and I believe he has a good chance of making the major league team but that is under the assumption the Pirates actually decide to carry a fifth outfielder. Evans has never put up outstanding numbers in the majors but even so I think he could be as good a platoon partner for Jones as McGehee. Evans’s bat lags behinds McGehee’s but his defensive ability at 1st base would make him an asset for the Pirates. Using Evans and McGehee against left handed starters instead of Jones and Alvarez has its advantages but I don’t see the Pirates going that route. Should Evans start in AAA I am not sure of where he would play unless Lambo is held back so my hope is he gets a chance to showcase himself of the bench. I feel he could be a viable player off the bench but it remains to be seen if he will get a chance.

Jake Fox: Like Evans, Fox was signed as an NRI this offseason. He too will be given a chance to compete for the 5th outfield job assuming again the Pirates keep 5 outfielders. If he doesn’t make the major league team I am not sure where he fits into the Pirates plans. The roster at AAA seems pretty full and while it could supports one of Evans or Fox it probably cannot support both. I am assuming the Pirates are going to release one of these two or are counting on somebody opting out. My guess is that Fox decides to opt out.

Jeff Clement: The resigning of Clement came as a slight surprise to me. The only I could figure was the Pirates are figuring on neither Evans or Fox starting in AAA and needed a back up 1st baseman/DH for AAA. That is the role Clement will likely fill in 2012 and while I am rooting for the guy and think he has a chance to be successful in this position I do not see a future for him with the Pirates. I actually think Clement will do well this season and might even put up similar numbers to what Bowker did last season but at this point I would be shocked if the Pirates even considered him an option for the majors.

TOP PROSPECTS

Alex Dickerson: Dickerson was drafted in the 3rd round of this past year’s draft and is the Pirates best 1st base prospect. He has a good bit of power and has the potential to one day become a force in the middle of the Pirates order. However that is years away and as for this season he will likely start off in A+ with a chance to be promoted to AA by midseason. Considering he is an all bat prospect and will be playing in a hitter friendly stadium I am expecting huge numbers from Dickerson while in A+. I hope the Pirates do not hold him back too long but with the prospect the Pirates have in the upper levels I see him staying in A+ for most of the season.

Matt Curry: I’m not sure what to make of Curry, personally I have never been too high in him but seeing how he dominated A ball last season made him look somewhat promising. He will likely repeat the AA level this season and with Dickerson on the way he will need to put up numbers right away to avoid being an afterthought. To be honest I just don’t see that kind of production coming this season he will adjust and put up better numbers but they won’t be eye popping and he will begin to lose his prospect status.

Matt Hague: I wasn’t sure if I should consider Hague organizational depth or a prospect. Hague appears ready for the majors but since he has yet to play a game he is still a prospect. In the end since I already had three organizational depth guys and since the Pirates are light in 1B prospects I included him here. Hague doesn’t have a ton of upside projecting as a Casey Kotchman type 1st baseman at best. I see him more as a corner utility player in the mold of Eric Hinske. However as far as this season goes I see him once again putting up strong numbers in AAA but unlike last year I see him getting a chance in the majors. I believe there is a decent chance the Pirates try to move Jones at the trade deadline and if they do the Pirates will give Hague a chance to prove himself (assuming McGehee and Alvarez aren’t both mashing). Hague will do respectably but it won’t be enough for him to lock down the position.

POSITION OVERVIEW

Summary: Overall I think the production from Jones/McGehee will prove to be near major league average. That will prove to be the best production the Pirates got from the 1st base position in years but obviously there will still need to be upgrades. Hague will be given the first shot to fill the position but I don’t see him as the long term answer. I have high hopes for Dickerson but unless he gets a chance to prove himself in AA and actually does so the Pirates have no choice but to try and find a long term solution for 1B by any means necessary (draft or trade). There is potential for decent albeit not spectacular production from 1st base for the Pirates this season but the future of the position is hazy and clearing it up should be one of the top priorities for the Pirates this season.

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