Results tagged ‘ Josh Harrison ’

Analyzing the 25 Man Roster

The Pirates essentially finalized their 25 man roster earlier today. Technically speaking there are still a few additional players in camp but all of them are expected to begin the season on the DL. Overall the roster is constructed in a very expected manner and while it is not how I would have went about doing it most of the decisions are at least somewhat understandable. There are always going to be people who complain about the fringes of the 25 man roster but at the end of the day those fringes really do not matter much, it is the core of the team and the overall depth (bench, bullpen and minor leagues) that will determine the fate of a team. The 5th starter, the 5th bench spot and the 7th reliever are not really positions that will dramatically alter the course of a team so the overreaction to the Pirates decisions on those roster spots is likely overblown. With all that in mind let’s take a look at how the Pirates roster looks headed into Opening Day.

C: Russell Martin

1B: Garrett Jones

2B: Neil Walker

3B: Pedro Alvarez

SS: Clint Barmes

LF: Starling Marte

CF: Andrew McCutchen

RF: Travis Snider

BN: Michael McKenry, Gaby Sanchez, Jose Tabata, John McDonald, Josh Harrison

SP: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Locke

RP: Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Justin Wilson, Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez

In reality the only players I would remove from the roster if I was in charge of its construction would be McDonald, Harrison (eventually Inge) and Gomez. In their place I would prefer to see Mercer, De Jesus and Morris. The other change I would like to see made is swapping Wilson and J Sanchez. Wilson is younger and in my opinion more likely to be able to contribute to the rotation for a few starts while Sanchez at this point is probably best suited trying to turn his career around as a lefty reliever. Even these changes though are for the most part temporary. When Liriano comes back I would most likely opt to bump Wilson from the rotation, when Karstens comes back I would most likely opt to bump Morris from the bullpen and I can even understand the argument for wanting McDonald over De Jesus. I don’t get Harrison or Inge over Mercer though. I know Mercer can’t play the outfield while the other sort of kind of can but the Pirates have enough options where they shouldn’t be considering playing infielders in the outfield anyway. The other advantage Inge has is supposedly power but people seem to forget Mercer has a little pop in his bat as well, it was just 2011 when he lead the Pirates minor leagues in home runs. Still arguments over the last bench spot are basically trivial and irrelevant. I don’t get why the Pirates need two (or even one) veteran middle infielders on the bench who can’t hit but in reality the difference between them and the other options is most likely negligible.

With that rather long disclaimer out-of-the-way I figured now was as good as time as any to take a look at the players the Pirates have opted to bring north.

Starting Infield

The starting infield is what we expected it to be all along. Russell Martin behind the dish will be counted on to provide solid defense and hopefully will produce somewhere in the vicinity of league average offense from the catcher position. The Pirates likely overpaid for him but if his superior pitch framing skills are actually real and not just a product of catching for guys like C.C. Sabathia then there is a chance he lives up the contract or maybe even provides some surplus value. I’m not expecting much in terms of offense from him but if he can be non horrible and provide the Pirates with an OPS around .700 I would take it.

Garrett Jones likely won’t be playing full-time at first base but assuming the Pirates actually stick to regularly platooning him this season he should get about 70% of the starts. Jones is here for essentially one purpose, to provide the Pirates with relatively cheap power. The rest of Jones’ game is fairly unremarkable from his defense to his baserunning but he is a fair hitter with plus power. That doesn’t make him a super valuable piece but it makes him an asset in the middle of the order. On the hot corner will reside Pedro Alvarez. Like Jones, Alvarez could probably benefit by sitting against some left handers but hopefully the Pirates give him a chance to prove his worth against them. Also like Jones, Alvarez is here to provide the Pirates with some power but unlike Jones, Alvarez has enough power potential where he could develop into an extremely valuable piece. Alvarez is going to strike out too much and not play the best defense at third but if he can show a little more plate discipline, draw a few more walks and continue blasting home runs he is going to have a lot of value.

Up the middle Neil Walker figures to get nearly every start at 2nd base and assuming Inge takes Harrison spot he better be starting everyday as the Pirates really won’t have a viable alternative on the 25 man roster. He had some back problems near the end of last season which bares watching but in reality any injury to him would really hurt the Pirates. It is unclear whether Hurdle plans to use him near the top of the order or more towards the bottom but given the fact he is one of the few Pirates players with a decent knack for getting on base placing him near the top (or eve at the top) of the order would probably be the wisest decision. Up the middle with Walker is Clint Barmes. Barmes’s value comes almost entirely from his ability to field the shortstop position very well but even so he is going to have to improve upon last year’s numbers to be of much use to the Pirates. Over the last 4 months of 2012 Barmes posted an OPS of around .650 and if he is able to do that for an entire season he won’t be the most glamorous shortstop but he will give the Pirates value.

Starting Outfield

The starting outfield is pretty much what we expected all along. There was a quasi competition for the corner spots but for the most part those were basically just made up as it was rather clear who should be the starters. In center field the Pirates will once again have their superstar Andrew McCutchen. There really isn’t a whole lot to say about him. He is likely one of the best 10 players in the game today and in order for the Pirates to have any chance of competing he will need to perform at a MVP caliber level. McCutchen did have a few flaws last year though and hopefully this season he will improve upon them. Last season he struggled stealing bases and was a little on the weak side defensively. Considering the rest of his game these are minor points of course but shoring them up would only make him more valuable.

In the corners the Pirates will use Starling Marte and Travis Snider. I expect to see both of them rested, especially Snider, on a fairly consistent basis but they will both get a long chance to prove themselves. Marte has plus speed and is a great defender so even if he struggles with the bat this season he is likely to still provide the Pirates with value. By no means is Marte’s bat weak though as he has the potential to possibly be the Pirates second best hitter this season behind only McCutchen. Marte is likely going to be forced into the leadoff spot a role he isn’t really suited for since he has some strike out issues but if he can maintain a high average and show any improvement in plate discipline he should be serviceable there. In the other corner will be Snider. He doesn’t have the speed or defense of Marte so he is going to have to hit to create value. People tend to think him hitting is less likely than Marte hitting well but in reality I think its a pretty even race. Snider has shown flashes in the past and comes with more power potential than Marte. The Pirates in order to have a shot at competing probably need one of these two to break out and become a true plus player and the other one will have to at least hold his own and be an average starter.

Bench

As I have previously stated the construction of the bottom of the bench really doesn’t matter a whole lot but the players near the top of the bench will likely get a lot of playing time so they will matter a good deal. The top player on the bench is likely Gaby Sanchez and he is expected to pick up the 30% or so of the starts that Garrett Jones doesn’t get at 1st base. Ideally Sanchez would bounce back to his 2010-11 form but that doesn’t really seem likely. In reality all the Pirates need him to be is a good bat against LHP and a good PH option off the bench two roles I think he’ll have no problem handling. Jose Tabata could potentially wind up in a similar situation to Sanchez only in right field. It is possible he winds up platooning with Snider and if that is the case he too will have to hit very well against left handed pitching. Tabata has the upside for more though. At this point he isn’t likely to develop into your traditional starting corner outfielder but he has very good plate discipline and that alone has the potential to make him a valuable asset atop the order. His speed although it has been questioned is still above average and his defense is probably around average as well. Tabata has the makings of an OBP first starting corner outfielder or a solid 4th outfielder. He is likely to be the second most important bench player.

The third most important bench spot and the last I see with much value will go to Michael McKenry. As the backup catcher he is likely to get at least 60 starts this season and will need to continue hitting as well as he did last season to provide value in those starts. His defense is decent but often overrated by Pirates fans but his bat can make him a solid backup catcher. The last two spots are currently slated to go to Harrison and McDonald but Inge will likely eventually assume Harrison’s role. In my mind the most important of these spots is the Harrison/Inge spot. This is supposedly the offensive first infield bench spot so whoever holds it down is going to have to actually you know hit at a respectable level. McDonald will serve as Barmes backup and though he is probably a touch worse both offensively and defensively his presence in the lineup for a day here or there shouldn’t really cause a noticeable difference.

Starting Rotation

Right now the Pirates rotation is a bit of mess. At the top of it the Pirates have probably one of the best one-two punches they have had in a while in AJ Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez. Neither one is a true ace but both seem like fairly safe bets to put up solid numbers this season. At 36 and 34 years old respectively there is of course the chance that either Burnett or Rodriguez has reached the end of their rope as pitchers but with how both of them pitched last year it seems likely they probably have another year or two of value left in them at least. Behind them is James McDonald who si the ultimate wildcard for the Pirates. If there is a true ace currently in the Pirates rotation it is James McDonald. McDonald showed us in the first half of the season last year that he has the talent to be a number one starting pitcher but he showed us in the second half of the year that he isn’t ready to be that yet and possibly never will be. What James McDonald the Pirates get this year, potential ace, borderline #5 starter or somewhere in between will probably be one of the biggest factors in how the Pirates season winds up.

Rounding out the rotation are a pitcher who amazingly actually has a wider range of possible outcomes than McDonald and a pitcher who looks like a fair bet to be a solid a back end guy but who has yet to prove it at the major league level. Jonathan Sanchez is another wildcard in the Pirates rotation but he is even less likely to pay off than McDonald. If Sanchez can keep his control problems at a minimum he will have an excellent chance of being a solid middle of the rotation starter for the Pirates but if he can’t he will most definitely be a total disaster. The Pirates really can’t (or at least shouldn’t) be expecting much from him. If Sanchez can give the Pirates 3 or 4 non-horrible starts in the month of April without completely exploding then it should be considered a success. The other pitcher Locke is a different story. Locke pitched exceptionally well in AAA last season but in his short stint in the majors was the victim of a very unlucky high home run rate. Assuming the high home rate drops this season which it will almost assuredly do I’m fairly confident Locke can become a solid #4 starter for the Pirates and mange to keep them in almost every game. He isn’t the flashiest pitcher but his performance in AAA has earned him this shot.

Bullpen

The back of the bullpen will consist of Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and Jared Hughes. These four actually make for a fairly solid quartet of arms. Grilli has been successful in a set up and middle relief role the last two seasons and will inherit the closer role this year. Melancon struggled last year in April and was sent down to the minors but when he returned to the majors he pitched pretty well The two of them , Grilli and Melancon, will likely be the Pirates 8th and 9th inning duo. By no means is this the best back end duo in the league but the tandem should be able to close out most leads that are handed over to them. Watson and Hughes were rather successful last season in their middle relief roles and will be counted on this season in later inning situations. Hughes will probably inherit the 7th inning role and Watson will continue being the top left handed releiver in the bullpen. The success of these two last year makes it fairly likely the adjustment should be relatively smooth.

At the front of the bullpen trying to bridge the gap to the back 4 guys will be Justin Wilson, Chris Leroux and Jeanmar Gomez. All 3 pitchers are capable of throwing multiple innings and all will likely be called upon to do so throughout the year. Wilson provides the Pirates with a second lefty and one who is more of a strike out pitcher. Leroux and Gomez will likely pick up most of the long relief duties. Both are out of options and one of them is likely to be released once pitchers began to get healthy so it will be sort of an extended competition for the duo. Leroux appears to have the more upside but Gomez has more major league experience. Leroux and Gomez are both fairly replaceable relievers so they will have to pitch well this season to remain with the team.

News and Notes

Not much happening today. But I thought a general post to catch up on some recent news would be a good idea.

Brad Hawpe who has been receiving an inordinate amount of playing time has been released from camp. That means according to my projection there are 5 players left in camp for the last bench spot: Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Jordy Mercer, Alex Presley and Felix Pie. To me it comes down to Harrison and Inge and I think considering Inge’s health issues that Harrison has the upper hand.

Tony Watson pitched an uneventful 1-2-3 inning today so it appears more likely that he will be ready for Opening Day which would displace Mike Zagurski from my projected roster. Zagurski hasn’t looked good recently anyway and probably shouldn’t make the team.

Jeff Karstens is scheduled to pitch tomorrow and as long as things go right he has a chance of being ready to be part of the rotation to start the season. If Karstens joins the rotation he would displace Sanchez or Locke from the rotation. That displacement could result in the displacement of Ryan Reid/Jeanmar Gomez or even Justin Wilson from the bullpen. In addition to Karstens possibly being ready by Opening Day it sounds as if Francisco Liriano may be about a month behind that.

As Spring Training winds down the Pirates camp roster now sits at 36 meaning there are still 11 cuts to be made. I’m expecting that we will see some early next week and the roster will really begin to round into shape. The roster battles as I see them are down to Harrison/Inge for the last bench spot, Locke/McPherson/Sanchez/Karstens for the final two rotation spots and Wilson/Gomez/Reid along with the losers of the rotation battle fighting for the final two bullpen spots. All of this assumes Watson is healthy and the Pirates decide to carry Leroux and Tabata which all seem rather likely.

On the site this week I am planning to conclude my expectations series with a look at the non-player parts of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The final three parts of the series will be the coaches, the front office and the team as a whole. Keep an eye out for those. In addition to those I will have a few more season preview pieces. Finally I’ll be attending the Pirates last exhibition game of Spring when they play their AA affiliate on Saturday March 30th. It should be a fun experience and I’m looking forward to providing a recap of the game both from the major and minor league perspective.

In the meantime I have recently updated my Top 20 Hitting and Top 20 Pitching prospects. Check them out. For the record I update them about two or three times a month during the season and I am planning on providing some details on the top prospects in the near future.

Sorting Through The Arms

Yesterday I made an ill-advised final attempt at predicting what the Pirates roster would look like come Opening Day. Less than 24 hours it has been proven wrong as Bryan Morris has been optioned to AAA. Morris wasn’t having the best Spring but I still feel like he was on of the Pirates seven best options for the bullpen to start the season. Since that attempt has failed I decided to give in another go today but this time primarily focus on the pitching side since that appears to have the most interesting questions remaining.

With today’s cuts of Morris, Ivan De Jesus and Jared Goedert there remains 40 players in camp. The following 18 players I believe have a firm grasp on their roster spots.

C: Russell Martin, Michael McKenry

IF: Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes, John McDonald

OF: Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata

RHP: AJ Burnett, James McDonald, Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Marek Melancon

LHP: Wandy Rodriguez

The above roster guarantees leaves one position player spot and six pitching spots available. Of the remaining 22 players three, Charlie Morton, Francisco Liriano and Jose Contreras are definitely not going to be healthy enough to start the season so the number essentially is reduced to 19 players. Of those 19 players there are two who’s place on the roster is only dependent upon their health, Jeff Karstens and Tony Watson. This bring us down to 17 players battling for somewhere between 5-7 spots.

The one position player spot is fairly straightforward. The eight position players left in camp without a guaranteed spot on the roster are Lucas May, Carlos Paulino, Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Jordy Mercer, Alex Presley, Felix Pie and Brad Hawpe. May and Paulino have absolutely zero chance of making the team as they are just extra catchers. Hawpe, Pie and Presley face an uphill climb as the Pirates are likely to give this final spot to an infielder not an outfielder. So what all that reasoning leaves us with is Mercer, Inge and Harrison fighting for one spot. The acquisition of McDonald makes it less likely the Pirates will keep Mercer on the roster and Inge has been awful this Spring and has never really been fully healthy so the edge here has to go to Josh Harrison.

The pitching gets a little more complicated as there are anywhere from 4-6 spots available depending on the health of Watson and Karstens and 9 players vying for those spots. There is likely to be 1-2 spots available in the rotation depending upon the health of Karstens and the last remaining competitors for those are Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez and Jeanmar Gomez. Of the group Gomez is probably the least deserving and can likely be quickly removed from the discussion. That leaves Locke, McPherson and Sanchez and of those 3 McPherson has has the worst Spring Training and has the least supporting performance to fall back on. That makes the favorites for the final one or two rotation spots Jeff Locke and Jonathan Sanchez. At this point I can’t imagine Karstens being ready to start at the beginning of the year so I think both players will wind up in the rotation to begin the season.

Next up is the bullpen and that is a little more crowded. There are only three locks for the bullpen in Grilli, Melancon and Hughes but Watson and even Karstens could join them there if they are healthy. Outside of those players the Pirates have the following left handers, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Wilson, and Mike Zagurski competing for spots and the following right handers, Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro and Ryan Reid competing for spots. Based on spring performances and past track records I feel fairly confident that two of the vacant spots will be filled by Leroux and Wilson. If Watson and Karstens both start the season in the bullpen that will be enough arms to round out the pen but otherwise there could be one to two spots available. Right now I have no clue if these two will be healthy or even if the Pirates would be willing to have Karstens work out of the bullpen to begin the season. If Watson isn’t healthy I have to figure the Pirates carry a second lefty in Mike Zagurski and if Karstens isn’t healthy or they decide not to use him in a bullpen role and instead start him on the DL I think it likely comes down to Reid or Gomez. As things currently stand I think Reid has the upper hand in such a battle.

All of this leaves me with my first (and hopefully only) post final 25 man roster prediction of:

C: Martin, McKenry

IF: Jones, G Sanchez, Walker, Alvarez, Barmes, Jo McDonald, Harrison

OF: Marte, McCutchen, Snider, Tabata

SP: Burnett, Rodriguez, Ja McDonald, Locke, J Sanchez

RP: Grilli, Melancon, Hughes, Leroux, Wilson, Watson/Zagurski, Karstens/Reid

Final 25 Man Roster Prediction

With only 11 days left until Opening Day I thought it was time to take my final crack at predicting which 25 guys the Pirates will take north with them.

Catchers: Russell Martin, Michael McKenry

Both Martin and McKenry are healthy and appear ready to begin the year. There has been some talk about the Pirates looking for a catcher but I imagine that would only be as a depth option for AAA. These two have been locks to make the team since Spring Training began and nothing has changed that.

1st Base: Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez

Despite battling an injury early in the spring Jones now appears at full strength and should be ready to open the year as the Pirates regular 1st baseman. The plan all along this spring was to have Jones be the starter and for Gaby Sanchez to platoon with hm and pick up the starts against left handed starters. Sanchez has also been working out at third this spring and will hopefully be a viable alternative there.

2nd Base: Neil Walker

Fairly straight forward here. Walker is healthy and is the Pirates everyday 2nd baseman.

3rd Baseman: Pedro Alvarez

Again no rocket science here. Alvarez struck out a lot last season and has been struggling this spring but the Pirates have little choice but to let him have a shot at being an everyday or close to it 3rd baseman.

Shortstop: Clint Barmes, John McDonald

Before yesterday it wasn’t so clear just who would be backing up Barmes but the acquisition of McDonald clears things up quite a bit. Barmes will start on most days but when he needs a breather or is pinched hit for late in games McDonald will see some time in the field at shortstop.

Left Field: Starling Marte

Contrary to popular belief I don’t think Marte had a starting spot nailed down headed into Spring Training but from all reports he has looked great and his numbers have been solid so he will now undoubtedly as he should start the year as the everyday left fielder.

Center Field: Andrew McCutchen

Duh, who else would it be?

Right Field: Travis Snider, Jose Tabata

Some thought Sands or possibly Presley or even Hawpe may factor into right field mix at the beginning of Spring Training but it became fairly clear early on that the spot was Snider’s to lose and that in all likelihood Tabata would make the team as the 4th outfielder and split time with Snider in right taking most of the starts against left handed pitchers.

Starting Pitcher: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Locke

Burnett, Rodriugez and McDonald have long been assumed and nothing from this spring changes that. The three of them will form the Pirates top 3 going into the season. The last two spots have looked like a bit of mess all Spring Training as Liriano hasn’t been healthy at all and Karstens really hasn’t been either. Locke hasn’t exactly separated himself from the pack but he was a favorite for a job headed into spring training and no one has really over took him at this point.

Bullpen: Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Chris Leroux

Things have gotten a lot less settled in the Pirates bullpen in the last couple of days. Grilli, Melancon and Hughes were all assumed to essentially be locks since the beginning and nothing has changed on that front. Also considered near locks were Tony Watson and Bryan Morris bu Watson has only pitched sporadicly and Morris apparently has an option remaining meaning he could start in the minors without the Pirates having to risk losing him. Leroux is out of options and has had a pretty strong spring so I expect the Pirates to keep him on the roster and not risk losing him.

For those of you not keeping track at home that is only 20 players meaning there are still 5 spots available. These are the 5 that I think still come with some uncertainty.

Bench (1): Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Alex Presley, Felix Pie, Brad Hawpe, Jordy Mercer, Ivan De Jesus, Jared Goedert

At this point there is only one bench spot remaining and all the above players still vying for it. With the acquisition of McDonald I assume Mercer and De Jesus are out of the running. Non roster invitees Hawpe and Goedert seem like long shots and are unlikely to make the team. That leaves Harrison, Inge, Presley and Pie. I would prefer to see the Pirates use this last spot on the best offensive player but knowing how Huntington and Hurdle like to construct a roster I think this last bench spot is likely to go to an infielder with some versatility so that eliminates Presley and Pie. This final spot in my mind is down to Harrison and Inge. To date Inge has shown nothing tha hints he would be an asset to this team so I expect the Pirates will opt to carry Josh Harrison as the final bench player.

Rotation (1):  Jeff Karstens, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeanmar Gomez

Before his disastrous start yesterday I would have said McPherson would get the last spot if Karstens wasn’t ready to go but now I’m not too sure. I still can’t imagine any scenario in which Gomez gets the nod but the Pirates are keeping Sanchez starting and have to make a decision on him by the 24th. I think there are serious doubts that Karstens will be ready by the start of the season but right now I’m still inclined to say he will take the last rotation spot.

Bullpen (3): Bryan Morris, Tony Watson, Jeanmar Gomez, Justin Wilson, Ryan Reid, Mike Zagurski, Jonathan Sanchez

Although he still has an option remaining Bryan Morris remains in my opinion one of the Pirates strongest options for the bullpen so despite the fact there is now a chance he could start the year in the minors I still expect to see him as part of the bullpen on Opening Day. Watson has me legitimately concerned at this point and I am now leaning towards the idea of him not being ready by Opening Day and actually starting the season in the minors. I’m expecting the Pirates to carry two left handers in the bullpen to start the season regardless of Watson’s health so assuming everything breaks as I predict that leaves no room for Reid or Gomez and makes the final two spots a battle between Wilson, Zagurski and Sanchez. At this point I can’t see Sanchez making the team unless they opt to have him start in the rotation so my prediction is the final two spots will go to Wilson and Zagurski.

Roster

Lineup: Marte (LF), Walker (2B), McCutchen (CF), Alvarez (3B), Jones (1B), Martin (C), Snider (RF), Barmes (SS)

Bench: McKenry (C), Sanchez (1B-3B), McDonald (2B-3B-SS), Tabata (OF), Harrison (2B-3B-SS-OF)

Rotation: Burnett, Rodriguez, McDonald, Locke, Karstens

Bullpen: Grilli (CL), Melancon (SU), Hughes, Morris, Leroux, Wilson (LH), Zagurski (LH)

Pirates Acquire John McDonald

The Pirates traded a PTBNL or cash considerations to the Diamondbacks today for utility infield John McDonald. McDonald is 38 years old and has a career OPS of .608 so the Pirates obviously did not acquire him for his potential or his bat. The reason McDonald was acquired is that he has a strong glove and is very capable defensively at 2B, SS and even 3B. He has to be placed on the 40 man roster and is owed 1.5 million dollars this year so he will undoubtedly make the team out of Spring Training. The 40 man roster is a minor issue as Morton and possibly d’Arnaud figure to be put on the 60 day DL here in the coming days and one of Leroux or Gomez (hopefully Gomez) will surely be released. However what this trade does do is tell us some things about how the Pirates perceive their bench options.

The acquisition of McDonald makes it very unlikely in my mind that either Mercer or De Jesus will make the team out of Spring Training. They were competing for a spot largely due to their ability to be the backup shortstop and McDonald now makes that role moot and suggests the Pirates must not think too highly of either of them at the moment. I don’t agree with that assessment as I find it hard to believe neither one would be able to hit at least as well as McDonald while providing decent defense but that is the decision the Pirates have made.

The move also leaves only one bench spot open as Sanchez, McKenry, Tabata and McDonald are likely to tae up four of the spots.  Based on Pirates past history the fifth spot is likely to go to another infielder and with Mercer and De Jesus appearing highly unlikely that only leaves Josh Harrison and Brandon Inge as options. Neither is particularly exciting as a potential bench bat but that is what the Pirates are left with. Hurdle seems to prefer carrying two bench players capable of playing shortstop with one of them being a utility type so I’m guessing Josh Harrison currently has the edge for the last spot.

Assuming all the above is correct McDonald will likely serve as this season’s Pedro Ciriaco or Jordy Mercer and be invisible to Clint Hurdle. To be honest I’d rather have a veteran guy like McDonald in this role than Mercer but above all I would rather not have this role as all. The implementation of such a spot combined with the reluctance to use the backup catcher as a pinch hitter essentially means the Pirates will be playing with only a 3 man bench this season. This isn’t a move that is going to really hurt the Pirates in any meaningful way but it also doesn’t appear likely to help them in any meaningful way so it leaves to wonder why they ever made the move in the first place.

I’m sure the Pirates have their reason for making this move. Perhaps none of the backup shortstops have looked like viable options in the field in their minds or perhaps they are considering only going with one utility infielder and prefer a veteran over a young player in such a rle but what ever the reason it isn’t particularly clear right now.

Roster Status

At this point the Pirates are roughly half way through the spring training schedule. Yesterday they cut 11 players from camp, none of which were a surprise so that leaves the Pirates with 51 players left in camp. Over the course of the next 2 weeks or so that list is going to have to be pared down to only 25 players which means there are 26 more cuts in the forthcoming. Looking at how the roster currently sits I see 21 players with fairly secure spots on the team assuming they remain healthy and conversely  I see 19 players who I believe have little to no chance of making the team out of Spring Training unless injuries were to occur. That leaves 4 open roster spots for the remaining 11 players to compete for.

Roster Locks

Lineup: Russell Martin, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider

Barring injury this is the starting eight I figured we’d see on opening day since the beginning of Spring Training and nothing has happened to make me change my mind.

Bench: Michael McKenry, Gaby Sanchez, Jose Tabata

Much like the starting 8 I had figured these 3 to be near locks for the roster from the beginning of Spring Training and to date nothing has happened to make me change my opinion.

Rotation: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Jeff Locke

Once it became apparent Liriano wasn’t going to be ready for the beginning of the season it appeared quite likely that the above 5 would comprise the Pirates rotation. There is still one question mark remaining though and that is the health of Karstens. Right now he appears as if he should be ready for the start of the season but if he isn’t Kyle McPherson would likely take his place.

Bullpen: Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, Jared Hughes, Bryan Morris

Again assuming good health these 5 players were essentially guaranteed a 25 man roster spot at the start of the season. As expected nothing has happened to change this so expect these 5 to be part of the opening day squad.

Likely Cuts

Catchers: Tony Sanchez, Lucas May, Ali Solis, Carlos Paulino

These 4 catchers were only brought to major league camp to help work out all the extra arms. I expect once the number of arms begins to thin out these catchers will start to be cut as well.

Infielders: Chase d’Arnaud, Jared Goedert

D’Arnaud had an outside chance of making the team entering Spring Training but has been injured for most of it so his chances now are likely next to none. Goedert entered camp as basically just a body to take up some early ST innings but he has played exceptionally well still he is a long shot for the roster.

Outfielders: Alex Presley, Brad Hawpe, Felix Pie

Huntington has shown in the past he prefers to have two utility infielders on the bench so the chances of the Pirates carrying a 5th outfielder seem slim to none. The Pirates already have their 4 outfielders in place so barring an injury or an unexpected decision to carry a 5th outfielder there just isn’t any room for any of these three.

Starting Pitchers: Kyle McPherson, Gerrit Cole, Phillip Irwin, Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton

McPherson entered with a chance of making the rotation over Locke but it was a long shot and he has done nothing to distinguish himself to this point (written before his strong outing today but still his overall line still doesn’t stand out). Right now it appears his only chance of making the team would be some sort of injury. Cole hopefully won’t be in the minors long but the Pirates want him to get a little seasoning in AAA before bringing him up to the majors, Irwin is turning heads this spring but like McPherson and Cole he would probably be best served to get some more time in AAA. The last Liriano and Morton would be candidates to make the team or even locks would they be healthy but both are likely to start the season on the DL.

Relief Pitchers: Vin Mazzaro, Andy Oliver, Jose Contreras, Kyle Waldrop, Ryan Reid

All these pitchers are unlikely to stick for a variety of reasons. Mazzaro has gotten a decent look in camp but was removed from the 40 man roster earlier this year, if the Pirates were serious about him possibly starting with the major league club that wouldn’t have happened. Olive has gotten a look but has shown poor control and will likely be kept in AAA where they will work on improving it. Contreras is currently rehabbing and won’t be ready to start the season. Waldrop and Reid were signed to minor league deals and have pitched well this spring but the way the Pirates are using them suggests they don’t see them as much more than depth options.

Open Competitions

Bench Infielders: Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Jordy Mercer, Ivan De Jesus

Along with Chase d’Arnaud these 4 have been competing for the 2 bench utility infield jobs since the beginning of spring. Right now it is difficult to say just who the favorites are but if I were pushed to guess I would say the Pirates might be leaning towards Harrison and Inge. Mercer and De Jesus have undoubtedly had the best springs and are also the best options to backup shortstop but in reality it seems like this was probably not a fair fight. Harrison seems to be very well liked by the Pirates management and Inge fills the veteran role Hurdle seems to like to have on his bench. Personally I’d think it would be a mistake to carry both but right now I’d lean that way. Ideally the Pirates would seek upgrade over these options or even contemplate carrying only one but short of that I think the best option would be to carry one of De Jesus or Mercer and one of Harrison or Inge. De Jesus or Mercer would give the Pirates a competent backup option at shortstop and Inge or Harrison would give the Pirates slightly more offense and a right handed caddy for Alvarez in case he struggles.

Bullpen: Chris Leroux, Bryce Brown, Jeanmar Gomez, Justin Wilson, Mike Zagurski, Kris Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez

I actually see this as two separate competitions. The Pirates haven’t publicly stated anything but I suspect in addition to the 5 players who appear to be locks for the bullpen they wish to carry a long reliever and a second lefty to round out the pen. Leroux, Brown and Gomez seem like the logical candidates for the long relief job. Leroux and Gomez because they are on the 40 man roster and out of options and Brown was signed to a contract like Reid and Waldrop but he is being used in such a way that suggests the Pirates see some potential in him. Gomez has been awful this spring so he really shouldn’t factor into this discussion but he remains on the fringes. Of Leroux and Brown right now I’d give the edge to Leroux because he seems to fit the Pirates mold and is on the roster and out of options but this one is probably pretty close. The last spot in the bullpen will likely go to a second lefty. I list 4 competitors but at this point Sanchez is likely out of the conversation as he has shown no control. Zagurski and Johnson are non-roster players who have pitcher fairly well this spring and Johnson has the momentum of a strong 2012 season and strong winter ball campaign propelling him up this list. Wilson is a candidate to return to AAA and once again try his hand as a starter but the Pirates could opt to keep him in the majors as a relief pitcher. Zagurski has the major league experience and has looked the best this spring, Johnson has the momentum and Wilson has the status. I think this is the closest race there is right now but as of now I’ll give the edge to the rostered player and say Wilson would get my vote.

Reviewing the 2012 Bench

One area that concerns me about the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates is the team’s bench. To me it just looks weak on paper and I have the feeling that has been the case for quite some time now. The Pirates depth or lack there of has been an issue for years and while it is steadily improving I believe some spots, especially the middle infield, are still lagging behind. My belief the Pirates bench was weak in past seasons, including 2012, was not really based on any research but rather jut an observational opinion. I decided to take a look at the numbers and see according to Fan Graphs WAR just how well the Pirates bench in 2012 stacked up to the other 4 teams remaining in the NL Central (Reds, Cardinals, Brewers and Cubs).

The first step to do this was determining exactly what a bench player was. I’m not merely looking for how well a team does with its pinch hitters but rather how well a team’s non-regulars do when pinch-hitting and when giving a regular starter a day off. Two obvious constraints came to mind one pitchers are obviously not bench players and bench players will not have as many plate appearances as starters. Using those two constraints I narrowed my list down to all non-pitchers and then eliminated anyone with 400 or more plate appearances. Four hundred was really just an arbitrary end point but it seems like a solid number for a regular starter, it represents roughly 60% of a 650 PA season meaning the player probably had to have played more than 50% of the time. Going even further I opted to eliminate any player with fewer than 50 PA. Players such as that likely didn’t have a chance to contribute much off the bench and were probably either short-term injury callups or September roster expansion players. These constraints limited the player pool to a manageable size for bench players but still left me with a few oddities such as Starling Marte and Rod Barajas being listed as bench players. Obviously those two and other like them are not bench players so I decided to look at the number of plate appearance the remaining players had per game played. A typical bench player should have a lower number because while they will make some starts a lot of their plate appearances will come as a pinch hitter or late inning replacement limiting their PA in those games to 1 or 2. Again I opted to choose an arbitrary dividing line of 3.3 plate appearances per game. It may seem random but it indicates that in at least a third of his games the player was receiving at least 4 plate appearances and to me that was a good enough dividing line. Finally I opted for one more constraint and that was removing all catchers. This may seem a little odd but typically speaking backup catchers receive a larger number of starts than a typical catcher and are often not used in pinch-hitting situations. In short catchers really don’t fit my standard ideal of what a bench player really is.

These constraints left me with a various number of players left for each team. The Reds had 4, the Cardinals and Brewers each had 7, the Cubs had 9 players and the Pirates topped the list with 10 such players. I looked at the total number of plate appearances each of these groups had and at the total number of WAR they produced on the season. The Reds were low and the Cubs were high but the other three teams all had right around 1200 plate appearances. So I decided to look at the stats on the basis of 1200 plate appearances which for the NL Central at least appears to be roughly the average number of plate appearances each “bench” received. The results can be seen below. I’ve also included the actual WAR and total number of plate appearances.

Cardinals: 5.1 WAR/1200 PA (5.4 WAR, 1263 PA)

Brewers: 1.9 WAR/1200 PA (1.8 WAR, 1118 PA)

Pirates: 0.8 WAR/1200 PA (0.8 WAR, 1255 PA)

Cubs: 0.4 WAR/1200 PA (0.5 WAR, 1538 PA)

Reds: -0.6 WAR/1200 PA (-0.4 WAR, 835 PA)

A little to my surprise the Pirates actually finished third. The Cardinals total was just incredibly insane and the Reds total was much lower than one would assume a successful team to be but then again they had very little reason to use it. For those of you interest the players included for each team I have listed below:

Cardinals: Matt Carpenter, Skip Schumaker, Tyler Greene, Shane Robinson, Lance Berkman, Pete Kozma, Adron Chambers

Brewers: Nyjer Morgan, Cody Ranson, Travis Ishikawa, Cesar Izturis, Taylor Green, Jeff Bianchi, Edwin Maysonet

Pirates: Casey McGehee, Josh Harrison, Travis Snider, Gaby Sanchez, Drew Sutton, Matt Hague, Brock Holt, Jordy Mercer, Nate McLouth, Yamaico Navarro

Cubs: Bryan LaHair, Joe Mather, Tony Campana, Reed Johnson, Jeff Baker, Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters, Dave Sappelt, Adron Cardenas

Reds: Chris Heisey, Wilson Valdez, Miguel Cairo, Xavier Paul

In reality it is difficult to draw much from this. The Pirates bench wasn’t good but it was better than the Cubs and the Reds. That sounds good but the Cubs were awful in 2012 and the Reds used their bench only two-thirds of time that the Pirates or basically any other NL Central team did. One thing I did draw on was just how difficult it was to determine a bench for the Pirates and the Cubs. I had originally started out planning on picking the 5 most frequent bench players from each team but it became difficult to do that with the Pirates. Harrison and McKenry were easy picks but the next three proved impossible which is why I opted to go with the above formula. For the record the Pirates and Brewers would have been helped out the most if I would have included back up catchers in my analysis.

One thing I do think we can take from this is that there is room for the Pirates to improve on the bench. It might be unfair to expect the Pirates or any bench to rise to the St Louis Cardinals level but if the Pirates bench can improve to around the Brewers 2012 level which was approximately 1.2 WAR there is reason to believe some ground could be made up. The Cardinals are likely to see some sort of regression from the great 2012 season from their bench so it is possible the Pirates by improving to just 2.0 WAR from their bench could pick up as many as 3-3.5 games on the Cardinals just with their bench improving and the Cardinals returning to a more normal level. Bottom line the point I’m trying to make here and in my post The Bottom of the Roster is that the Pirates can make up ground not only by having their big names like McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker and Marte perform better but also by making some small but noticeable strides simply with team depth. It is not unreasonable to suggest that the Pirates could pick up 4-5 wins compared to the Cardinals just by strengthening their depth and having the Cardinals return to a more normal level that the Pirates.

Infield Bench Battle

One area that causes me great concern regarding the Pirates is in the depth they have for the infield. The starters Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Clint Barmes are all fairly healthy individuals and their play is fairly solid at least in some aspects. However behind them the Pirates really do not have a whole lot. Traditionally two infielders get bench spots on the Pirates to begin the season and I am expecting that to be the case again this season. Once again this crop is fairly unimpressive but there appears to be five players with a legitimate chance of winning one of the bench jobs available. I thought it would be a good idea to review each players strengths and weaknesses and analyze why there is a reason for concern with each player.

Josh Harrison

Josh HarrisonHarrison is probably the most familiar of the 5 to Pittsburgh Pirates fans as he has been part of the Pirates bench for the last five seasons. He is a player who is easy to like because of his all out style of play. During the 2012 season we even were introduced to his mother on the Pirates broadcasts as she watched him play in games in his home town Cincinnati, he reaction when he got hit probably was something a lot of mothers can relate to. Harrison is an interesting player as he is a free swinger and he will really go deep into the count which means he walks a small amount of time but also means he doesn’t strike out very often. As for the other aspects of his game he is a contact hitter with limited power, has probably slightly above average speed and is a below average fielder. It is really a mix bag with Harrison.

Strengths: Harrison can play all over the field, logging innings last year at 2B, SS, 3B and the corner outfield. He is difficult to strike out and is very good at putting the ball in play. He has experience with the Pirates and appears to be a player Clint Hurdle likes. In addition his base running is fairly good and he can steal the occasional base.

Weaknesses: Although Harrison has played all over the field the only position where he looks even semi-decent defensively is third base. His inability to work counts causing his walk rate to be low which in return negatively affects his OBP. He is a contact hitter but the contact he makes is often of a weak variety as he doesn’t possess much power.

Overall: Harrison has a great chance to be a part of the Pirates bench this season because of his familiarity with the Pirates coaching staff, his ability to play several different positions and the simple fact he is on the 40 man roster. On the flip side the Pirates should consider going another direction because there is nothing Harrison really does that makes him stand out. With the exception of his ability to not strike out Harrison is at best average in every other aspect of the game. The ability to play multiple positions is a plus but his inability to play them well or even decently negatively effects his value. Overall the Pirates could definitely do worse than Harrison but should try to do better.

Jordy Mercer

Jordy MercerMercer is probably the best defensive shortstop of this group and is also one who should be familiar with Pirates fans as he was drafted by the Pirates in 2008 and has remained in the organization ever since. He spent a rather significant amount of time in the majors last season but got very few at bats as Clint Hurdle gave him the Pedro Ciriaco treatment and he was mainly glues to the bench. Offensively it is difficult to get a read on just what Mercer will be able to do in the major leagues but in the minors he has been adequate with the bat. Mercer’s strike out and walk rates for his minor league career appear to be roughly average and he does seem to have at least a little power in his bat as he led the Pirates minor leagues in homers in 2011. Defensively speaking Mercer has only played 2B, 3B and SS but he plays those positions fairly well. As for the other aspects of his game he has about average speed and really doesn’t try to steal many bases although he will occasionally sneak one in there. At this point Mercer is sort of an unknown with a high floor and low ceiling.

Strengths: Mercer’s best strength is his defensive ability as he is the only one of the five candidates who is capable of even being an average defender at the shortstop position. He does have a few other pluses too though as he is probably one of the safer bets to not be completely useless on the bench and has shown at least some power in the minor leagues.

Weaknesses: The biggest weakness with mercer is that it is really not known how is bat will translate. He has struggled in his very limited sample in the majors but that came over quite a long-span with very inconsistent playing time. He also doesn’t have the ability to play the outfield although with all the Pirates options that shouldn’t be a large concern.

Overall: Like Harrison, Mercer’s strongest case for making the team is quite simply his familiarity with the coaching staff and his presence on the 40 man roster. He also has the additional benefit of actually being able to handle the shortstop position at a good level although with an all glove guy like Barmes starting on most days that is less of a concern than it would be otherwise. I currently have Mercer as my second infielder on the bench but I feel that his position is a lot less secure tha Harrison’s. I feel Mercer is probably the safest choice of this group as his glove will at least give him some value but his lack of experience may wind up hurting him.

Brandon Inge

IngeThe Pirates signed Inge to a minor league deal this offseason and because of the new CBA he will be able to opt out if he is not placed on the roster by late March. Of the 3 players I consider on the outside looking in when it comes to battling for the two bench spots I believe Inge has the best chance of winning one. Inge is clearly on the downside of his career but was still a valuable player to the Athletics last season and could still have some value for the Pirates. Offensively speaking he is a below average player who strikes out a fairly high amount and walks roughly an average amount. He is not a contact hitter but does hit for some power. Defensively his primary position is 3B and he has spent the majority of his career there although he has logged innings at 2B and in the corner outfield and was a catcher when his career began so he could probably serve as the emergency third option at that position which is a plus. He is a very good defender at 3B and ahs shown himself capable at the other positions. Baserunning wise he is below average and he really isn’t a threat to steal any bases. Inge is a veteran and has been around the league a long time and has more experience in the majors than his other four competitors do combined.

Strengths: Inge’s best strength and what separates him from the other four is his experience. He has been in the majors for several seasons and has been a part of winning clubs so a pressure pinch hit situation is less likely to get to him than any of the other players. He also would provide the Pirates with a little power off the bench and would provide them with possibly an adequate option to rest Alvarez against tough left handers and to pull him for defensive purposes late in games.

Weaknesses: Unlike the other four players Inge has no experience at the shortstop position meaning the Pirates would only have one bench option capable of playing that position if they kept Inge. He has also been on the decline the past few seasons and is a threat to bottom out this year. Defensively speaking last year was the first time he spent any time at 2B and before that he hadn’t played a position outside of 3B since 2008.

Overall: Inge isn’t on the 40 man roster and because of that he has a slightly uphill climb to make the team. I still give him very good odds but I think he starts behind Harrison and Mercer entering Spring Training. Inge is also a player this coaching staff is not familiar with which puts him at another disadvantage. His lack of flexibility in the field will also likely play against him. However the Pirates, specifically Clint Hurdle may see some value in his experience and because of that he has a chance to make the bench. Inge has also expressed a willingness to work on other positions outside of 3B so his flexibility issue will be slightly reduced. Inge could be a decent veteran presence on the bench but his declining numbers in recent years are cause for concern.

Ivan De Jesus

Ivan DeJesusDe Jesus was acquired by the Pirates as the fourth piece in the Hanrahan trade. Pretty much him and Brock Holt are just consider after thoughts in the deal and are considered to roughly cancel each other out as neither one projects to be much more than utility infielders. De Jesus is a relatively inexperienced major league player but he does have some considerable time in at AAA. He definitely has some upside but it is difficult for me to see him as anything other than a utility player at this point. De Jesus has put up some good offensive numbers in AAA but that very well may be a by-product of the PCL as those numbers have yet to translate to his limited MLB sample size. De Jesus offensive game is predicated around contact as he does not hit for much power and is just an average runner. His strike out rates have been high in the major leagues but they have been right around average to a little above average in the minors. His walk rates have been all over the place from very good to below average throughout his career so it is probably safe to assume he has about average plate discipline. On the defensive side he was originally a shortstop but injuries moved him to 2nd base and he is probably unable to be a regular shortstop now although he is probably capable of being a fill in for a game here or there. His defense in the majors has been poor but that is a small sample. Overall he is probably roughly an average fielder.

Strengths: The best asset De Jesus has going for him is that he is probably the best hope amongst the 5 bench candidates to be a solid two-way player. His defense is at least serviceable at shortstop and around average at 2B and 3B and his bat has shown potential in AAA. De Jesus is not the best player in any particular aspect but he also isn’t the worst and he probably balances out to have the best mix of any of the five competing.

Weaknesses: De Jesus biggest strike against him is that he hasn’t had success in his limited major league opportunities and that like Harrison there is really nothing he does above average. He has the skills to be a nice balanced utility player but without something to make him stand out it could be difficult for him to get noticed. So his biggest weakness is not a particular flaw but a lack of a true strength, essentially its a double edge sword.

Overall: De Jesus has only very minimal experience in the corner outfield meaning he is essentially limited to strictly infield duty but once again that shouldn’t be a real issue. As of right now he appears to be the Pirates fourth choice amongst the bench infielder candidates but he has opted to skip the WBC in an attempt to move up the chart and I think that is certainly doable. De Jesus isn’t on the 40 man roster, doesn’t have an out clause and has had little success in the majors in the past; all of that is working against him making the bench out of spring training. On the other side De Jesus has some potential with the bat and really lacks a glaring weakness in his game and when combined with his ability to handle shortstop better than Harrison and Inge it gives him a certain appeal which could allow him to find a home. If he doesn’t make it out of spring training there is a chance he could see Pittsburgh some time this season but that would be far from a guarantee.

Chase d’Arnaud

Chase d'ArnaudPirates fans are probably familiar with Chase d’Arnaud from his time with the Pirates in 2011. He was a bit of a fan favorite at the time and was seen as a spark plug for the offense while he was up in the majors. Truth be told though he really didn’t play all that well. He is a weak hitter and a below average fielder but yet he might have the highest upside of all the players listed. What sets d’Arnaud apart from the rest of this crowd is his plus speed a weapon that if he would ever be able to utilize correctly could make him a solid major league player. With the bat he displays very little power but has shown an ability to maintain a decent average in AAA. His strike out rates are right around league average which is probably a little high for a speed guy like him and his walk rate is also probably about average. Defensively he has played 2B, 3B and SS and he is below average defensively at SS although he is good enough that a team could get by with him there for an extended period of time and at the other positions he is right around an average defender. He has a small sample of major league plate appearances and has mostly struggled in that time. Currently he appears to be a distant fifth in the battle for the final two bench spots but if he can show he is capable of hitting decently his speed could make for a great asset off the bench for the Pirates.

Strengths: As I’ve already said d’Arnaud’s best asset is his speed. He is probably the Pirates best base stealer and would be a nice player to have for pinch running situations. He also has the ability to play shortstop decently well and would be a perfectly adequate backup option defensively especially considering its an all glove player in front of him. Outside of his speed and ability to play shortstop d’Arnaud also has the advantage of being on the 40 man roster and having played for Hurdle. He did provide a certain spark while he was here in 2011 so with a solid spring it is possible Hurdle could consider that as a factor.

Weaknesses: d’Arnaud has many weaknesses but mainly it is his poor hitting that hold him back. If he could show himself to be even a decent hitter he has enough athleticism that he could be a solid contributor. Also working against him is his shaky defense at shortstop. d’Arnaud right now is a very one-tool specific player and that is usually a poor fit for most benches. He is going to need to show a more complete game in order to have any chance.

Overall: I would very much like to see d’Arnaud win one of the bench spots as his speed would be a nice weapon to have available on the bench. The fact that he is a shortstop, albeit a below average defensive one, is another reason it would be nice to have him around. Right now he is probably the longest shot of all five competitors but I think it is close enough that a strong spring performance could vault him into the conversation. His game right now is almost solely dependent upon his speed and that isn’t going to be enough; he needs to make an effort to be well-rounded and most importantly make some strides with his bat. If d’Arnaud proves capable of carrying over his average from AAA to the majors he could make for a solid bench player or maybe even a decent starter. If d’Arnaud does not show any improvements in his game during spring training he will head back to AAA and unless he shows something there he is going to be a candidate to be taken off the 40 man roster and would likely only see Pittsburgh as a pinch runner in September.

Overview

I thought a good way to summarize everything from above would be to rank the five players on a few different skill aspects.

Power: 1. Brandon Inge, 2. Jordy Mercer, 3. Josh Harrison, 4. Chase d’Arnaud, 5. Ivan De Jesus

Average: 1. Josh Harrison, 2. Ivan De Jesus, 3. Jordy Mercer, 4. Chase d’Arnaud, 5. Brandon Inge

Contact: 1. Josh Harrison, 2. Ivan De Jesus, 3. Jordy Mercer, 4. Chase d’Arnaud, 5. Brandon Inge

Plate Discipline: 1. Brandon Inge, 2. Ivan De Jesus, 3. Jordy Mercer, 4. Chase d’Arnaud, 5. Josh Harrison

Speed: 1. Chase d’Arnaud, 2. Josh Harrison, 3. Jordy Mercer, 4. Ivan De Jesus, 5. Brandon Inge

Base Running: 1. Chase d’Arnaud, 2. Josh Harrison, 3. Ivan De Jesus, 4. Jordy Mercer, 5. Brandon Inge

Shortstop Ability: 1. Jordy Mercer, 2. Chase d’Arnaud, 3. Ivan De Jesus, 4. Josh Harrison, 5. Brandon Inge

Defense: 1. Jordy Mercer, 2. Brandon Inge, 3. Ivan De Jesus, 4. Chase d’Arnaud, 5. Josh Harrison

Versatility: 1. Josh Harrison, 2. Ivan De Jesus. 3. Chase d’Arnaud, 4. Jordy Mercer, 5. Brandon Inge

Experience: 1. Brandon Inge, 2. Josh Harrison, 3. Chase d’Arnaud, 4. Ivan De Jesus, 5. Jordy Mercer

Potential: 1. Chase d’Arnaud, 2. Jordy Mercer, 3. Ivan De Jesus, 4. Josh Harrison, 5. Brandon Inge

Finally I would like to give the percent chance I think each has of making the team. Now remember there are two open spots and the Pirates are probably going to give both of them to two infielders but there is a not impossible chance they opt to go with a 5th outfielder instead of an additional infielder. Since there are two spots the odds add up to 200% and these numbers are really just my best estimate as of now. I have no real knowledge of the situation, it is pure speculation.

Josh Harrison: 75%

Jordy Mercer: 40%

Brandon Inge: 30%

5th OF: 25%

Ivan De Jesus: 20%

Chase d’Arnaud: 10%

2013 Expectations: Third Base

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Pedro Alvarez

Last season I called Pedro Alvarez the key to the Pirates season and in a sense he was. His 2012 campaign was vastly better than his 2011 one but still not a dominating performance so the Pirates performed better but still not good. Not much has changed in one year, Alvarez still appears to me to be the biggest key to the success or failure of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates need another impact bat in their lineup to go along with Andrew McCutchen and the person most capable of being that impact bat is Mr. Alvarez. It is difficult to say just what we should expect from Alvarez in 2013. He is a big power guy with a big strike out problem and those types seem to see a lot of fluctuation from year to year. Still I’m reasonably hopeful that Pedro will take another step forward and continue to grow as a hitter and all around player. I think we will see his ratios improve as I expect to cut down slightly on his strike outs while taking more walks. THese will not be vast improvements but I expect to see Alvarez drop his K% below 30% and possibly even get it down into the 28% range and I see his walk percentage eclipsing 10% and maybe even approaching 11%. These are not dramatic shifts but if they occur it will help Alvarez improve. The biggest test with Alvarez will be whether or not he can improve upon his long cold stretches, by improve I don’t mean have them disappear but have them not be so bad. It is ok if he goes two weeks and is a .600 OPS player but it’s another thing if he goes two weeks and is a .350 OPS player. Defensively I think we all know what to expect from Alvarez he will be a below average third baseman but I suspect he will continue to play passably enough where talk about him moving to 1st base can be delayed another season at least. On the power side I am expecting to see Pedro increase his total of 30 home runs from 2012 but only slightly finishing with somewhere between 32-35 home runs. All in all I see Pedro being a solid 3.0-3.5 WAR player for the Pirates in 2013 and I see him posting a triple slash of approximately .240/.325/.475.

Josh Harrison

Harrison plays all over the field but the only position he really looks comfortable at defensively is third base. He is officially competing for a bench spot but seeing as he has been the on the team the last two seasons he appears to be a player Hurdle likes so I expect him to once again be a part of the Pirates bench. In reality the Pirates need to be doing better than Harrison on the bench. He is a decent guy to have around in AAA but last season he led the Pirates in pinch hit appearances and that should not happen. Harrison has little power and is weak defensively so his value comes from his contact skills and since he only hit .233 last season he had essentially no value at all. Harrison doesn’t walk but on the plus side he tends to be hard to strike out. He is a free swinger who usually makes contact. I’m hoping Harrison sees a drop in playing time but considering the Pirates really don’t have a lot of other quality middle infield bench options I suspect he will still get around 250 PA in 2013. I expect Harrison will see an improvement in his average and get it up to around .250 which should at least give him some value to the Pirates. Despite my dislike for Harrison I expect we will see a slightly better year from him in 2013. Assuming he can get his average and walk rate up his versatility could make him a semi-decent bench player assuming the Pirates don’t use him as the top bench option. Like I said I expect he’ll receive around 250 PA but that is too mcuh, ideally he’ll be limited to around 150-175 and if he is and he posts a .250/.300/.350 slash line he could be an ok 25th man. Bottom line what I’m expecting from Harrison is non-horrible 25th man production but playing time deserving of a more important bench piece.

Brandon Inge

Inge appears to be Harrison’s main competition for a bench spot. In theory both players could make it but since neither really plays shortstop, at least play it well, I think it is an either or situation. Inge brings to the table better defense and a little more power than Harrison but isn’t quite as versatile having spent almost all of his playing time at third base. Now he does have some time in the outfield corners, a few innings at second and was a catcher not all that long ago so he does have some versatility. As of now I don’t expect Inge to make the team and as he appears to be in the declining portion of his career that isn’t a bad thing. If Inge were to make it I could see him providing similar value to what Harrison would albeit in a different way. Realistically if he were to make the team a line of .220/.280/.350 would be a fairly good estimate taking into account his recent seasons. Value wise there isn’t much difference between Inge and Harrison but skill wise there is. Inge has an out clause in his contract if he isn’t on the roster by late March, I’m not sure if he will use it or not but if he doesn’t I would assume we would see Inge playing third base down in AAA for most of the season.

Projected Pirates Roster

Locks

Russell Martin, Michael McKenry, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider, AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson

Barring injury or something else unforeseen I think it is safe to assume the 17 above players will be making the Pirates opening day roster. The roles of most of these players are also known as Martin, Walker, Alvarez, Barmes, Marte and McCutchen all figure to be regular. On the pitching side Burnett, Rodriguez and McDonald will be the top of the rotation and Grilli, Melancon, Hughes and Watson figure to form the back of the bullpen. Of the remaining four players McKenry will serve as the backup catcher, Jones figures to platoon at 1B, Snider will make the team due to being out of options and his potential and Karstens will either serve as a starter or a swingman for the pitching staff. Snider currently projects as the starting right fielder but even if he loses that job he will have a spot on the bench.

Near Locks

Gaby Sanchez, Jose Tabata, Bryan Morris

Sanchez is fairly close to a lock to start the season platooning with Jones but he does have an option remaining so it is possible the Pirates could opt to send him down to AAA and take a look at a player like Jerry Sands. I know some will argue with me including Jose Tabata here but he has a fairly lengthy contract and is out of options so it would be rather surprising to see the Pirates DFA him without at least giving him a chance to serve as a 4th outfielder. He isn’t guaranteed a spot but I would count on him getting one. Bryan Morris is out of options and is a potential back of the bullpen reliever. If the Pirates were to DFA him there is little doubt some team would claim him. Due to the uncertainty of the final three bullpen spots and Morris’s upside it seems unlikely that he will not make the team.

Injured

Charlie Morton, Francisco Liriano

Not much to say here. Early reports seem to suggest that Morton will start the season on the 60 day DL and that Liriano will begin the season on the 15 day DL. When healthy Liriano will definitely be guarenteed a spo but I’m not sure I can make the same statement about Morton.

40 Man Roster Players Not Competing for a Spot

Phillip Irwin, Stolmy Pimentel, Tony Sanchez, Hunter Strickland

Fairly straightforward here. THe above 4 players are on the 40 man roster but don’t have the polish needed to help the major league roster right out of camp. The only one who may be ready to serve some sort of role is Sanchez but there are already two catchers locked in on the roster leaving him with no room.

NRIs Not Competing for a Spot

Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Erik Cordier, Ryan Reid, Lucas May, Carlos Paulino, Ali Solis, Jared Goedert, Anderson Hernandez, Darren Ford

Again fairly obvious here that none of the above players have a chance of making the major league roster out of Spring Training. Most of these players were added to be roster depth and will be playing most if not all of 2013 down in AAA. The rest are prospects the Pirates wanted to get a look at.

NRIs With Little Chance to Make the Team

Matt Hague, Brad Hawpe, Felix Pie, Kyle Waldrop, Mike Zagurski

The above players do not have zero chance of making the team but the odds of them doing so appear to be highly stacked against them . The Pirates have a lot of options for 1B/OF making it unlikely any NRI at one of those positions will stick and the two pitchers I listed above, Waldrop and Zagurski, appear to be pretty far down on the pecking order.

40 Man Roster Players With Little Chance to Make the Team

Clint Robinson, Chase d’Arnaud, Victor Black, Andrew Oliver

Once again the above 4 players all probably do have a chance to stick with the Pirates but that chance is very minimal and it is likely all of them will start the season off serving as depth in AAA.

 

All of this leaves me with 15 players competing for the final spots. Looking at the spots open we have 2 bench spots, 1 rotation spot, 1 bullpen spot and 1 other pitching spot (rotation or bullpen depending on where Karstens goes).

Bench Spots Competition

Josh Harrison, Alex Presley, Jerry Sands, Jordy Mercer, Ivan De Jesus, Brandon Inge

To me with Snider and Tabata taking the roles as the third and fourth outfielders it appears unlikely that Presley or Sands will stick given the Pirates preference to have two reserve middle infielders on the bench. For this reason I think the competition is really down to Harrison, Mercer, De Jesus and Inge for the final two spots. As of right now the favorites would have to be considered Harrison and Mercer due to the fact they are on the 40 man roster but the other two definitely have a fighting chance. The Pirates seem to have a fondness for Harrison so I would be very surprised to see him not make the team although I do believe it would be for the best if he did not. If we assume Harrison is on the team it becomes almost a necessity that the other bench player be capable of playing shortstop which leaves us with De Jesus and Mercer. As I said right now I have to lean towards Mercer.

Rotation Spot Competition

Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez

I’m going to approach this assuming Karstens will begin the year in the rotation but that is not a given. Assuming this is the case these three players are competing for one spot. Due to his lack of experience in AAA and the fact the Pirates will probably opt to start the year with two lefties in the rotation I find it difficult to envision McPherson making the team. That leaves Locke and Sanchez competing for the final spot. Before knowing of Sanchez’s opt out clause I would have said the spot will definitely go to Locke but the fact the Pirates could lose Sanchez if he isn’t on the roster means that a strong spring showing will definitely force him into the conversation. Still as of right now I’ll give the slight edge to Locke

Bullpen Spots Competition

Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro, Duke Welker, Justin Wilson, Kris Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez

Leroux and Gomez are both out of options and on the 40 man roster which would ordinarily lead me to believe they are the favorites for the final 2 spots but I think the Pirates will end up carrying two left handers meaning one of them, at least will be out. Mazzaro seems to be a long shot given that he is an NRI and there is little separating him from Leroux and Gomez but he definitely has a chance. Welker is intriguing but he has some control problems that probably need to be worked out in AAA. I don’t see two of the lefties I listed making the bullpen so that leaves Leroux and Gomez competing for 1 spot. As of now I have to assume the Pirates see more in Leroux and that he will get the nod but that could easily change. As for the last spot I see Kris Johnson as a long shot in this competition. If Sanchez were to make the rotation I think Wilson takes the job but if Sanchez shows some promise and doesn’t get a rotation spot I feel the Pirates keep him as the second lefty. As of now I have Sanchez penciled in to that role but it could easily change.

Projected Lineup

C: Russell Martin

1B: Garrett Jones

2B: Neil Walker

3B: Pedro Alvarez

SS: Clint Barmes

LF: Starling Marte

CF: Andrew McCutchen

RF: Travis Snider

Bench

C: Michael McKenry

CI: Gaby Sanchez

MI: Jordy Mercer

OF: Jose Tabata

U: Josh Harrison

Rotation

1: AJ Burnett

2: Wandy Rodriguez

3: James McDonald

4: Jeff Karstens

5: Jeff Locke

Bullpen

CL: Jason Grilli

SU: Mark Melancon

MR: Tony Watson

MR: Jared Hughes

MR: Bryan Morris

LR: Jonathan Sanchez

LR: Chris Leroux

On Deck*

C: Tony Sanchez

IF: Ivan De Jesus

IF: Brandon Inge

1B/OF: Jerry Sands

OF: Alex Presley

SP: Kyle McPherson

RP: Jeanmar Gomez

RP: Justin Wilson

* Next in line should an injury occur in spring training and/or top competitors for the opening jobs.

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