Results tagged ‘ Jeff Locke ’

Analyzing the 25 Man Roster

The Pirates essentially finalized their 25 man roster earlier today. Technically speaking there are still a few additional players in camp but all of them are expected to begin the season on the DL. Overall the roster is constructed in a very expected manner and while it is not how I would have went about doing it most of the decisions are at least somewhat understandable. There are always going to be people who complain about the fringes of the 25 man roster but at the end of the day those fringes really do not matter much, it is the core of the team and the overall depth (bench, bullpen and minor leagues) that will determine the fate of a team. The 5th starter, the 5th bench spot and the 7th reliever are not really positions that will dramatically alter the course of a team so the overreaction to the Pirates decisions on those roster spots is likely overblown. With all that in mind let’s take a look at how the Pirates roster looks headed into Opening Day.

C: Russell Martin

1B: Garrett Jones

2B: Neil Walker

3B: Pedro Alvarez

SS: Clint Barmes

LF: Starling Marte

CF: Andrew McCutchen

RF: Travis Snider

BN: Michael McKenry, Gaby Sanchez, Jose Tabata, John McDonald, Josh Harrison

SP: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Locke

RP: Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Justin Wilson, Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez

In reality the only players I would remove from the roster if I was in charge of its construction would be McDonald, Harrison (eventually Inge) and Gomez. In their place I would prefer to see Mercer, De Jesus and Morris. The other change I would like to see made is swapping Wilson and J Sanchez. Wilson is younger and in my opinion more likely to be able to contribute to the rotation for a few starts while Sanchez at this point is probably best suited trying to turn his career around as a lefty reliever. Even these changes though are for the most part temporary. When Liriano comes back I would most likely opt to bump Wilson from the rotation, when Karstens comes back I would most likely opt to bump Morris from the bullpen and I can even understand the argument for wanting McDonald over De Jesus. I don’t get Harrison or Inge over Mercer though. I know Mercer can’t play the outfield while the other sort of kind of can but the Pirates have enough options where they shouldn’t be considering playing infielders in the outfield anyway. The other advantage Inge has is supposedly power but people seem to forget Mercer has a little pop in his bat as well, it was just 2011 when he lead the Pirates minor leagues in home runs. Still arguments over the last bench spot are basically trivial and irrelevant. I don’t get why the Pirates need two (or even one) veteran middle infielders on the bench who can’t hit but in reality the difference between them and the other options is most likely negligible.

With that rather long disclaimer out-of-the-way I figured now was as good as time as any to take a look at the players the Pirates have opted to bring north.

Starting Infield

The starting infield is what we expected it to be all along. Russell Martin behind the dish will be counted on to provide solid defense and hopefully will produce somewhere in the vicinity of league average offense from the catcher position. The Pirates likely overpaid for him but if his superior pitch framing skills are actually real and not just a product of catching for guys like C.C. Sabathia then there is a chance he lives up the contract or maybe even provides some surplus value. I’m not expecting much in terms of offense from him but if he can be non horrible and provide the Pirates with an OPS around .700 I would take it.

Garrett Jones likely won’t be playing full-time at first base but assuming the Pirates actually stick to regularly platooning him this season he should get about 70% of the starts. Jones is here for essentially one purpose, to provide the Pirates with relatively cheap power. The rest of Jones’ game is fairly unremarkable from his defense to his baserunning but he is a fair hitter with plus power. That doesn’t make him a super valuable piece but it makes him an asset in the middle of the order. On the hot corner will reside Pedro Alvarez. Like Jones, Alvarez could probably benefit by sitting against some left handers but hopefully the Pirates give him a chance to prove his worth against them. Also like Jones, Alvarez is here to provide the Pirates with some power but unlike Jones, Alvarez has enough power potential where he could develop into an extremely valuable piece. Alvarez is going to strike out too much and not play the best defense at third but if he can show a little more plate discipline, draw a few more walks and continue blasting home runs he is going to have a lot of value.

Up the middle Neil Walker figures to get nearly every start at 2nd base and assuming Inge takes Harrison spot he better be starting everyday as the Pirates really won’t have a viable alternative on the 25 man roster. He had some back problems near the end of last season which bares watching but in reality any injury to him would really hurt the Pirates. It is unclear whether Hurdle plans to use him near the top of the order or more towards the bottom but given the fact he is one of the few Pirates players with a decent knack for getting on base placing him near the top (or eve at the top) of the order would probably be the wisest decision. Up the middle with Walker is Clint Barmes. Barmes’s value comes almost entirely from his ability to field the shortstop position very well but even so he is going to have to improve upon last year’s numbers to be of much use to the Pirates. Over the last 4 months of 2012 Barmes posted an OPS of around .650 and if he is able to do that for an entire season he won’t be the most glamorous shortstop but he will give the Pirates value.

Starting Outfield

The starting outfield is pretty much what we expected all along. There was a quasi competition for the corner spots but for the most part those were basically just made up as it was rather clear who should be the starters. In center field the Pirates will once again have their superstar Andrew McCutchen. There really isn’t a whole lot to say about him. He is likely one of the best 10 players in the game today and in order for the Pirates to have any chance of competing he will need to perform at a MVP caliber level. McCutchen did have a few flaws last year though and hopefully this season he will improve upon them. Last season he struggled stealing bases and was a little on the weak side defensively. Considering the rest of his game these are minor points of course but shoring them up would only make him more valuable.

In the corners the Pirates will use Starling Marte and Travis Snider. I expect to see both of them rested, especially Snider, on a fairly consistent basis but they will both get a long chance to prove themselves. Marte has plus speed and is a great defender so even if he struggles with the bat this season he is likely to still provide the Pirates with value. By no means is Marte’s bat weak though as he has the potential to possibly be the Pirates second best hitter this season behind only McCutchen. Marte is likely going to be forced into the leadoff spot a role he isn’t really suited for since he has some strike out issues but if he can maintain a high average and show any improvement in plate discipline he should be serviceable there. In the other corner will be Snider. He doesn’t have the speed or defense of Marte so he is going to have to hit to create value. People tend to think him hitting is less likely than Marte hitting well but in reality I think its a pretty even race. Snider has shown flashes in the past and comes with more power potential than Marte. The Pirates in order to have a shot at competing probably need one of these two to break out and become a true plus player and the other one will have to at least hold his own and be an average starter.

Bench

As I have previously stated the construction of the bottom of the bench really doesn’t matter a whole lot but the players near the top of the bench will likely get a lot of playing time so they will matter a good deal. The top player on the bench is likely Gaby Sanchez and he is expected to pick up the 30% or so of the starts that Garrett Jones doesn’t get at 1st base. Ideally Sanchez would bounce back to his 2010-11 form but that doesn’t really seem likely. In reality all the Pirates need him to be is a good bat against LHP and a good PH option off the bench two roles I think he’ll have no problem handling. Jose Tabata could potentially wind up in a similar situation to Sanchez only in right field. It is possible he winds up platooning with Snider and if that is the case he too will have to hit very well against left handed pitching. Tabata has the upside for more though. At this point he isn’t likely to develop into your traditional starting corner outfielder but he has very good plate discipline and that alone has the potential to make him a valuable asset atop the order. His speed although it has been questioned is still above average and his defense is probably around average as well. Tabata has the makings of an OBP first starting corner outfielder or a solid 4th outfielder. He is likely to be the second most important bench player.

The third most important bench spot and the last I see with much value will go to Michael McKenry. As the backup catcher he is likely to get at least 60 starts this season and will need to continue hitting as well as he did last season to provide value in those starts. His defense is decent but often overrated by Pirates fans but his bat can make him a solid backup catcher. The last two spots are currently slated to go to Harrison and McDonald but Inge will likely eventually assume Harrison’s role. In my mind the most important of these spots is the Harrison/Inge spot. This is supposedly the offensive first infield bench spot so whoever holds it down is going to have to actually you know hit at a respectable level. McDonald will serve as Barmes backup and though he is probably a touch worse both offensively and defensively his presence in the lineup for a day here or there shouldn’t really cause a noticeable difference.

Starting Rotation

Right now the Pirates rotation is a bit of mess. At the top of it the Pirates have probably one of the best one-two punches they have had in a while in AJ Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez. Neither one is a true ace but both seem like fairly safe bets to put up solid numbers this season. At 36 and 34 years old respectively there is of course the chance that either Burnett or Rodriguez has reached the end of their rope as pitchers but with how both of them pitched last year it seems likely they probably have another year or two of value left in them at least. Behind them is James McDonald who si the ultimate wildcard for the Pirates. If there is a true ace currently in the Pirates rotation it is James McDonald. McDonald showed us in the first half of the season last year that he has the talent to be a number one starting pitcher but he showed us in the second half of the year that he isn’t ready to be that yet and possibly never will be. What James McDonald the Pirates get this year, potential ace, borderline #5 starter or somewhere in between will probably be one of the biggest factors in how the Pirates season winds up.

Rounding out the rotation are a pitcher who amazingly actually has a wider range of possible outcomes than McDonald and a pitcher who looks like a fair bet to be a solid a back end guy but who has yet to prove it at the major league level. Jonathan Sanchez is another wildcard in the Pirates rotation but he is even less likely to pay off than McDonald. If Sanchez can keep his control problems at a minimum he will have an excellent chance of being a solid middle of the rotation starter for the Pirates but if he can’t he will most definitely be a total disaster. The Pirates really can’t (or at least shouldn’t) be expecting much from him. If Sanchez can give the Pirates 3 or 4 non-horrible starts in the month of April without completely exploding then it should be considered a success. The other pitcher Locke is a different story. Locke pitched exceptionally well in AAA last season but in his short stint in the majors was the victim of a very unlucky high home run rate. Assuming the high home rate drops this season which it will almost assuredly do I’m fairly confident Locke can become a solid #4 starter for the Pirates and mange to keep them in almost every game. He isn’t the flashiest pitcher but his performance in AAA has earned him this shot.

Bullpen

The back of the bullpen will consist of Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and Jared Hughes. These four actually make for a fairly solid quartet of arms. Grilli has been successful in a set up and middle relief role the last two seasons and will inherit the closer role this year. Melancon struggled last year in April and was sent down to the minors but when he returned to the majors he pitched pretty well The two of them , Grilli and Melancon, will likely be the Pirates 8th and 9th inning duo. By no means is this the best back end duo in the league but the tandem should be able to close out most leads that are handed over to them. Watson and Hughes were rather successful last season in their middle relief roles and will be counted on this season in later inning situations. Hughes will probably inherit the 7th inning role and Watson will continue being the top left handed releiver in the bullpen. The success of these two last year makes it fairly likely the adjustment should be relatively smooth.

At the front of the bullpen trying to bridge the gap to the back 4 guys will be Justin Wilson, Chris Leroux and Jeanmar Gomez. All 3 pitchers are capable of throwing multiple innings and all will likely be called upon to do so throughout the year. Wilson provides the Pirates with a second lefty and one who is more of a strike out pitcher. Leroux and Gomez will likely pick up most of the long relief duties. Both are out of options and one of them is likely to be released once pitchers began to get healthy so it will be sort of an extended competition for the duo. Leroux appears to have the more upside but Gomez has more major league experience. Leroux and Gomez are both fairly replaceable relievers so they will have to pitch well this season to remain with the team.

News and Notes

Not much happening today. But I thought a general post to catch up on some recent news would be a good idea.

Brad Hawpe who has been receiving an inordinate amount of playing time has been released from camp. That means according to my projection there are 5 players left in camp for the last bench spot: Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Jordy Mercer, Alex Presley and Felix Pie. To me it comes down to Harrison and Inge and I think considering Inge’s health issues that Harrison has the upper hand.

Tony Watson pitched an uneventful 1-2-3 inning today so it appears more likely that he will be ready for Opening Day which would displace Mike Zagurski from my projected roster. Zagurski hasn’t looked good recently anyway and probably shouldn’t make the team.

Jeff Karstens is scheduled to pitch tomorrow and as long as things go right he has a chance of being ready to be part of the rotation to start the season. If Karstens joins the rotation he would displace Sanchez or Locke from the rotation. That displacement could result in the displacement of Ryan Reid/Jeanmar Gomez or even Justin Wilson from the bullpen. In addition to Karstens possibly being ready by Opening Day it sounds as if Francisco Liriano may be about a month behind that.

As Spring Training winds down the Pirates camp roster now sits at 36 meaning there are still 11 cuts to be made. I’m expecting that we will see some early next week and the roster will really begin to round into shape. The roster battles as I see them are down to Harrison/Inge for the last bench spot, Locke/McPherson/Sanchez/Karstens for the final two rotation spots and Wilson/Gomez/Reid along with the losers of the rotation battle fighting for the final two bullpen spots. All of this assumes Watson is healthy and the Pirates decide to carry Leroux and Tabata which all seem rather likely.

On the site this week I am planning to conclude my expectations series with a look at the non-player parts of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The final three parts of the series will be the coaches, the front office and the team as a whole. Keep an eye out for those. In addition to those I will have a few more season preview pieces. Finally I’ll be attending the Pirates last exhibition game of Spring when they play their AA affiliate on Saturday March 30th. It should be a fun experience and I’m looking forward to providing a recap of the game both from the major and minor league perspective.

In the meantime I have recently updated my Top 20 Hitting and Top 20 Pitching prospects. Check them out. For the record I update them about two or three times a month during the season and I am planning on providing some details on the top prospects in the near future.

Sorting Through The Arms

Yesterday I made an ill-advised final attempt at predicting what the Pirates roster would look like come Opening Day. Less than 24 hours it has been proven wrong as Bryan Morris has been optioned to AAA. Morris wasn’t having the best Spring but I still feel like he was on of the Pirates seven best options for the bullpen to start the season. Since that attempt has failed I decided to give in another go today but this time primarily focus on the pitching side since that appears to have the most interesting questions remaining.

With today’s cuts of Morris, Ivan De Jesus and Jared Goedert there remains 40 players in camp. The following 18 players I believe have a firm grasp on their roster spots.

C: Russell Martin, Michael McKenry

IF: Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes, John McDonald

OF: Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata

RHP: AJ Burnett, James McDonald, Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Marek Melancon

LHP: Wandy Rodriguez

The above roster guarantees leaves one position player spot and six pitching spots available. Of the remaining 22 players three, Charlie Morton, Francisco Liriano and Jose Contreras are definitely not going to be healthy enough to start the season so the number essentially is reduced to 19 players. Of those 19 players there are two who’s place on the roster is only dependent upon their health, Jeff Karstens and Tony Watson. This bring us down to 17 players battling for somewhere between 5-7 spots.

The one position player spot is fairly straightforward. The eight position players left in camp without a guaranteed spot on the roster are Lucas May, Carlos Paulino, Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Jordy Mercer, Alex Presley, Felix Pie and Brad Hawpe. May and Paulino have absolutely zero chance of making the team as they are just extra catchers. Hawpe, Pie and Presley face an uphill climb as the Pirates are likely to give this final spot to an infielder not an outfielder. So what all that reasoning leaves us with is Mercer, Inge and Harrison fighting for one spot. The acquisition of McDonald makes it less likely the Pirates will keep Mercer on the roster and Inge has been awful this Spring and has never really been fully healthy so the edge here has to go to Josh Harrison.

The pitching gets a little more complicated as there are anywhere from 4-6 spots available depending on the health of Watson and Karstens and 9 players vying for those spots. There is likely to be 1-2 spots available in the rotation depending upon the health of Karstens and the last remaining competitors for those are Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez and Jeanmar Gomez. Of the group Gomez is probably the least deserving and can likely be quickly removed from the discussion. That leaves Locke, McPherson and Sanchez and of those 3 McPherson has has the worst Spring Training and has the least supporting performance to fall back on. That makes the favorites for the final one or two rotation spots Jeff Locke and Jonathan Sanchez. At this point I can’t imagine Karstens being ready to start at the beginning of the year so I think both players will wind up in the rotation to begin the season.

Next up is the bullpen and that is a little more crowded. There are only three locks for the bullpen in Grilli, Melancon and Hughes but Watson and even Karstens could join them there if they are healthy. Outside of those players the Pirates have the following left handers, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Wilson, and Mike Zagurski competing for spots and the following right handers, Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro and Ryan Reid competing for spots. Based on spring performances and past track records I feel fairly confident that two of the vacant spots will be filled by Leroux and Wilson. If Watson and Karstens both start the season in the bullpen that will be enough arms to round out the pen but otherwise there could be one to two spots available. Right now I have no clue if these two will be healthy or even if the Pirates would be willing to have Karstens work out of the bullpen to begin the season. If Watson isn’t healthy I have to figure the Pirates carry a second lefty in Mike Zagurski and if Karstens isn’t healthy or they decide not to use him in a bullpen role and instead start him on the DL I think it likely comes down to Reid or Gomez. As things currently stand I think Reid has the upper hand in such a battle.

All of this leaves me with my first (and hopefully only) post final 25 man roster prediction of:

C: Martin, McKenry

IF: Jones, G Sanchez, Walker, Alvarez, Barmes, Jo McDonald, Harrison

OF: Marte, McCutchen, Snider, Tabata

SP: Burnett, Rodriguez, Ja McDonald, Locke, J Sanchez

RP: Grilli, Melancon, Hughes, Leroux, Wilson, Watson/Zagurski, Karstens/Reid

Final 25 Man Roster Prediction

With only 11 days left until Opening Day I thought it was time to take my final crack at predicting which 25 guys the Pirates will take north with them.

Catchers: Russell Martin, Michael McKenry

Both Martin and McKenry are healthy and appear ready to begin the year. There has been some talk about the Pirates looking for a catcher but I imagine that would only be as a depth option for AAA. These two have been locks to make the team since Spring Training began and nothing has changed that.

1st Base: Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez

Despite battling an injury early in the spring Jones now appears at full strength and should be ready to open the year as the Pirates regular 1st baseman. The plan all along this spring was to have Jones be the starter and for Gaby Sanchez to platoon with hm and pick up the starts against left handed starters. Sanchez has also been working out at third this spring and will hopefully be a viable alternative there.

2nd Base: Neil Walker

Fairly straight forward here. Walker is healthy and is the Pirates everyday 2nd baseman.

3rd Baseman: Pedro Alvarez

Again no rocket science here. Alvarez struck out a lot last season and has been struggling this spring but the Pirates have little choice but to let him have a shot at being an everyday or close to it 3rd baseman.

Shortstop: Clint Barmes, John McDonald

Before yesterday it wasn’t so clear just who would be backing up Barmes but the acquisition of McDonald clears things up quite a bit. Barmes will start on most days but when he needs a breather or is pinched hit for late in games McDonald will see some time in the field at shortstop.

Left Field: Starling Marte

Contrary to popular belief I don’t think Marte had a starting spot nailed down headed into Spring Training but from all reports he has looked great and his numbers have been solid so he will now undoubtedly as he should start the year as the everyday left fielder.

Center Field: Andrew McCutchen

Duh, who else would it be?

Right Field: Travis Snider, Jose Tabata

Some thought Sands or possibly Presley or even Hawpe may factor into right field mix at the beginning of Spring Training but it became fairly clear early on that the spot was Snider’s to lose and that in all likelihood Tabata would make the team as the 4th outfielder and split time with Snider in right taking most of the starts against left handed pitchers.

Starting Pitcher: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Locke

Burnett, Rodriugez and McDonald have long been assumed and nothing from this spring changes that. The three of them will form the Pirates top 3 going into the season. The last two spots have looked like a bit of mess all Spring Training as Liriano hasn’t been healthy at all and Karstens really hasn’t been either. Locke hasn’t exactly separated himself from the pack but he was a favorite for a job headed into spring training and no one has really over took him at this point.

Bullpen: Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Chris Leroux

Things have gotten a lot less settled in the Pirates bullpen in the last couple of days. Grilli, Melancon and Hughes were all assumed to essentially be locks since the beginning and nothing has changed on that front. Also considered near locks were Tony Watson and Bryan Morris bu Watson has only pitched sporadicly and Morris apparently has an option remaining meaning he could start in the minors without the Pirates having to risk losing him. Leroux is out of options and has had a pretty strong spring so I expect the Pirates to keep him on the roster and not risk losing him.

For those of you not keeping track at home that is only 20 players meaning there are still 5 spots available. These are the 5 that I think still come with some uncertainty.

Bench (1): Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Alex Presley, Felix Pie, Brad Hawpe, Jordy Mercer, Ivan De Jesus, Jared Goedert

At this point there is only one bench spot remaining and all the above players still vying for it. With the acquisition of McDonald I assume Mercer and De Jesus are out of the running. Non roster invitees Hawpe and Goedert seem like long shots and are unlikely to make the team. That leaves Harrison, Inge, Presley and Pie. I would prefer to see the Pirates use this last spot on the best offensive player but knowing how Huntington and Hurdle like to construct a roster I think this last bench spot is likely to go to an infielder with some versatility so that eliminates Presley and Pie. This final spot in my mind is down to Harrison and Inge. To date Inge has shown nothing tha hints he would be an asset to this team so I expect the Pirates will opt to carry Josh Harrison as the final bench player.

Rotation (1):  Jeff Karstens, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeanmar Gomez

Before his disastrous start yesterday I would have said McPherson would get the last spot if Karstens wasn’t ready to go but now I’m not too sure. I still can’t imagine any scenario in which Gomez gets the nod but the Pirates are keeping Sanchez starting and have to make a decision on him by the 24th. I think there are serious doubts that Karstens will be ready by the start of the season but right now I’m still inclined to say he will take the last rotation spot.

Bullpen (3): Bryan Morris, Tony Watson, Jeanmar Gomez, Justin Wilson, Ryan Reid, Mike Zagurski, Jonathan Sanchez

Although he still has an option remaining Bryan Morris remains in my opinion one of the Pirates strongest options for the bullpen so despite the fact there is now a chance he could start the year in the minors I still expect to see him as part of the bullpen on Opening Day. Watson has me legitimately concerned at this point and I am now leaning towards the idea of him not being ready by Opening Day and actually starting the season in the minors. I’m expecting the Pirates to carry two left handers in the bullpen to start the season regardless of Watson’s health so assuming everything breaks as I predict that leaves no room for Reid or Gomez and makes the final two spots a battle between Wilson, Zagurski and Sanchez. At this point I can’t see Sanchez making the team unless they opt to have him start in the rotation so my prediction is the final two spots will go to Wilson and Zagurski.

Roster

Lineup: Marte (LF), Walker (2B), McCutchen (CF), Alvarez (3B), Jones (1B), Martin (C), Snider (RF), Barmes (SS)

Bench: McKenry (C), Sanchez (1B-3B), McDonald (2B-3B-SS), Tabata (OF), Harrison (2B-3B-SS-OF)

Rotation: Burnett, Rodriguez, McDonald, Locke, Karstens

Bullpen: Grilli (CL), Melancon (SU), Hughes, Morris, Leroux, Wilson (LH), Zagurski (LH)

2013 Expectations: Back Of The Rotation

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Jeff Karstens

After a strange offseason which saw Karstens non-tendered and then resigned I am forced to eat some crow and give some credit to the Pirates front office for correctly analyzing the market for Jeff Karstens. I am glad to have Karstens back and I hope the Pirates use him in the role I feel he is best suited for which is as a utility pitcher, by that I mean he can pitch in any situation, starting, long relief or end of game. I expect that Karstens will be part of the Pirates rotation to start the season but assuming everyone is healthy when Liriano returns I see Karstens moving to the bullpen. If Karstens ends up making about 10 starts this season and pitching a few innings out of the bullpen I think that should suit his skill set just perfectly. Karstens isn’t a great player but he is a solid contributor who should give the Pirates 80-100 solid innings this season. I see Karstens being worth right around 1.0 WAR on the season and posting numbers around a 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.

Jeff Locke

I have Locke penciled into the starting rotation to begin the 2013 season. In my mind he has nothing left to prove at AAA and is deserving of a chance to show whether or not he has what it takes to make it as a major league starting pitcher. I believe Locke will have a very solid season for the Pirates but I doubt he makes a whole season worth of starts in the majors. The Pirates have some other pitchers they will surely want to get a look at and Locke would seem the easiest to replace in the rotation. Still I can see Locke getting a chance to impress the Pirates with about 15-20 starts which would represent a good half season of work. If he does well he will probably be a front runner for the back end of the 2014 rotation and if not he very well might be released. This is a big year for Locke and I expect he’ll hold his own. Something in the area of a 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 feels about right for Locke in 2013. All and all I have him pegged for about 18 starts and roughly 0.8 WAR.

Kyle McPherson

McPherson is Locke biggest competition for the last spot in the Pirates rotation and I think he has the higher upside of the two but at the same time he also only has 3 career starts at the AAA level which means he probably still could use a little more polish. I don’t expect McPherson to make the team out of Spring Training but I expect he’ll make quite a handful of starts and get a chance to leave an impression and claim a rotation spot for 2014. After spending a little time in AAA this season I expect he’ll do rather well after being called up. Like with all young inexperienced pitchers it is difficult to get a true read on what statistics to expect but I’m thinking something like a 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 feels about right. I think McPherson will wind up with roughly 10-12 starts and be worth just a little less than 1.0 WAR.

Jonathan Sanchez

Originally I thought Sanchez had a good chance to win the job as the second lefty out of the bullpen but as things progress I see that as less and less likely and I now expect him to start the year off in the AAA rotation essentially flipping roles with Justin Wilson. Sanchez certainly has a high upside but his lack of control severely hampers that upside. I actually don’t see Sanchez making more than 2-3 starts for the Pirates this season and I imagine any chances he’ll get he will show flashes of brilliance but also not have enough control to be anything more than mediocre. Sanchez is definitely a competitor for a rotation spot this season but I just can’t see him having much impact on the Pirates rotation in 2013.

Projected Pirates Roster

Locks

Russell Martin, Michael McKenry, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider, AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson

Barring injury or something else unforeseen I think it is safe to assume the 17 above players will be making the Pirates opening day roster. The roles of most of these players are also known as Martin, Walker, Alvarez, Barmes, Marte and McCutchen all figure to be regular. On the pitching side Burnett, Rodriguez and McDonald will be the top of the rotation and Grilli, Melancon, Hughes and Watson figure to form the back of the bullpen. Of the remaining four players McKenry will serve as the backup catcher, Jones figures to platoon at 1B, Snider will make the team due to being out of options and his potential and Karstens will either serve as a starter or a swingman for the pitching staff. Snider currently projects as the starting right fielder but even if he loses that job he will have a spot on the bench.

Near Locks

Gaby Sanchez, Jose Tabata, Bryan Morris

Sanchez is fairly close to a lock to start the season platooning with Jones but he does have an option remaining so it is possible the Pirates could opt to send him down to AAA and take a look at a player like Jerry Sands. I know some will argue with me including Jose Tabata here but he has a fairly lengthy contract and is out of options so it would be rather surprising to see the Pirates DFA him without at least giving him a chance to serve as a 4th outfielder. He isn’t guaranteed a spot but I would count on him getting one. Bryan Morris is out of options and is a potential back of the bullpen reliever. If the Pirates were to DFA him there is little doubt some team would claim him. Due to the uncertainty of the final three bullpen spots and Morris’s upside it seems unlikely that he will not make the team.

Injured

Charlie Morton, Francisco Liriano

Not much to say here. Early reports seem to suggest that Morton will start the season on the 60 day DL and that Liriano will begin the season on the 15 day DL. When healthy Liriano will definitely be guarenteed a spo but I’m not sure I can make the same statement about Morton.

40 Man Roster Players Not Competing for a Spot

Phillip Irwin, Stolmy Pimentel, Tony Sanchez, Hunter Strickland

Fairly straightforward here. THe above 4 players are on the 40 man roster but don’t have the polish needed to help the major league roster right out of camp. The only one who may be ready to serve some sort of role is Sanchez but there are already two catchers locked in on the roster leaving him with no room.

NRIs Not Competing for a Spot

Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Erik Cordier, Ryan Reid, Lucas May, Carlos Paulino, Ali Solis, Jared Goedert, Anderson Hernandez, Darren Ford

Again fairly obvious here that none of the above players have a chance of making the major league roster out of Spring Training. Most of these players were added to be roster depth and will be playing most if not all of 2013 down in AAA. The rest are prospects the Pirates wanted to get a look at.

NRIs With Little Chance to Make the Team

Matt Hague, Brad Hawpe, Felix Pie, Kyle Waldrop, Mike Zagurski

The above players do not have zero chance of making the team but the odds of them doing so appear to be highly stacked against them . The Pirates have a lot of options for 1B/OF making it unlikely any NRI at one of those positions will stick and the two pitchers I listed above, Waldrop and Zagurski, appear to be pretty far down on the pecking order.

40 Man Roster Players With Little Chance to Make the Team

Clint Robinson, Chase d’Arnaud, Victor Black, Andrew Oliver

Once again the above 4 players all probably do have a chance to stick with the Pirates but that chance is very minimal and it is likely all of them will start the season off serving as depth in AAA.

 

All of this leaves me with 15 players competing for the final spots. Looking at the spots open we have 2 bench spots, 1 rotation spot, 1 bullpen spot and 1 other pitching spot (rotation or bullpen depending on where Karstens goes).

Bench Spots Competition

Josh Harrison, Alex Presley, Jerry Sands, Jordy Mercer, Ivan De Jesus, Brandon Inge

To me with Snider and Tabata taking the roles as the third and fourth outfielders it appears unlikely that Presley or Sands will stick given the Pirates preference to have two reserve middle infielders on the bench. For this reason I think the competition is really down to Harrison, Mercer, De Jesus and Inge for the final two spots. As of right now the favorites would have to be considered Harrison and Mercer due to the fact they are on the 40 man roster but the other two definitely have a fighting chance. The Pirates seem to have a fondness for Harrison so I would be very surprised to see him not make the team although I do believe it would be for the best if he did not. If we assume Harrison is on the team it becomes almost a necessity that the other bench player be capable of playing shortstop which leaves us with De Jesus and Mercer. As I said right now I have to lean towards Mercer.

Rotation Spot Competition

Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez

I’m going to approach this assuming Karstens will begin the year in the rotation but that is not a given. Assuming this is the case these three players are competing for one spot. Due to his lack of experience in AAA and the fact the Pirates will probably opt to start the year with two lefties in the rotation I find it difficult to envision McPherson making the team. That leaves Locke and Sanchez competing for the final spot. Before knowing of Sanchez’s opt out clause I would have said the spot will definitely go to Locke but the fact the Pirates could lose Sanchez if he isn’t on the roster means that a strong spring showing will definitely force him into the conversation. Still as of right now I’ll give the slight edge to Locke

Bullpen Spots Competition

Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro, Duke Welker, Justin Wilson, Kris Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez

Leroux and Gomez are both out of options and on the 40 man roster which would ordinarily lead me to believe they are the favorites for the final 2 spots but I think the Pirates will end up carrying two left handers meaning one of them, at least will be out. Mazzaro seems to be a long shot given that he is an NRI and there is little separating him from Leroux and Gomez but he definitely has a chance. Welker is intriguing but he has some control problems that probably need to be worked out in AAA. I don’t see two of the lefties I listed making the bullpen so that leaves Leroux and Gomez competing for 1 spot. As of now I have to assume the Pirates see more in Leroux and that he will get the nod but that could easily change. As for the last spot I see Kris Johnson as a long shot in this competition. If Sanchez were to make the rotation I think Wilson takes the job but if Sanchez shows some promise and doesn’t get a rotation spot I feel the Pirates keep him as the second lefty. As of now I have Sanchez penciled in to that role but it could easily change.

Projected Lineup

C: Russell Martin

1B: Garrett Jones

2B: Neil Walker

3B: Pedro Alvarez

SS: Clint Barmes

LF: Starling Marte

CF: Andrew McCutchen

RF: Travis Snider

Bench

C: Michael McKenry

CI: Gaby Sanchez

MI: Jordy Mercer

OF: Jose Tabata

U: Josh Harrison

Rotation

1: AJ Burnett

2: Wandy Rodriguez

3: James McDonald

4: Jeff Karstens

5: Jeff Locke

Bullpen

CL: Jason Grilli

SU: Mark Melancon

MR: Tony Watson

MR: Jared Hughes

MR: Bryan Morris

LR: Jonathan Sanchez

LR: Chris Leroux

On Deck*

C: Tony Sanchez

IF: Ivan De Jesus

IF: Brandon Inge

1B/OF: Jerry Sands

OF: Alex Presley

SP: Kyle McPherson

RP: Jeanmar Gomez

RP: Justin Wilson

* Next in line should an injury occur in spring training and/or top competitors for the opening jobs.

Do The Pirates Need Another Starter?

With Jeff Karstens now back on the Pirates payroll there are 6 pitchers with a reasonable chance of starting the year in the major league rotation. They are A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson. In addition to those six there are quite a few other players who could factor in at some point this season. There are a handful of pitchers who look like they could be non-horrible spot starting options in Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro and Zach Stewart but none of them would ideally be counted on. There is also the two reinforcements, Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole, who will hopefully both be ready to help contribute by mid season. Then there is even Justin Wilson and Andy Oliver who have the stuff to be good starters if they can figure out their control. Finally the Pirates also have a stable of AAA pitchers who look like they should be ready to step up and make a handful of starts later in the year in Phillip Irwin, Brandon Cumpton and even Michael Colla. That is undoubtedly a lot of arms but I still believe the Pirates need to bring in another starter and I’ll explain why.

Let’s first take a look at the depth. A lot of the pitchers making up the Pirates depth, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Phillip Irwin, Brandon Cumpton and Michael Colla are going to probably need a couple of months before they would be ideally counted on to help the rotation. Two more Justin Wilson and Andy Oliver will need time to prove that they have improved their control before being ready to move up. What this means is that a lot of this depth will not be ready to help out should a problem arise in say April or May. Now with six starters ready to start the year that ordinarily wouldn’t be a huge deal but the Pirates have risk factors with all six of their starters.

Burnett – AJ will be 36 years old this upcoming season and had two poor seasons prior to his good year last season. A pitcher nearing his late 30s is always at risk of breaking down especially one with as much use on it as Burnett.

Rodriguez - At 34 years old Rodriguez isn’t as old as Burnett but there is a cause for concern as his strike out rate has been steadily dropping the last few seasons. The bottom really fell out in 2012 as he dropped from 7.8 K/9 to 6.1 K/9. He is going to need to show he can transition into being successful as a finesse pitcher.

McDonald – The biggest question mark of them all. Which McDonald is the real McDonald? Is he the Cy Young candidate we saw the first half of last year, the AA arm we saw in the second half or somewhere in between. A complete collapse can not be ruled out.

Karstens – The reason the Pirates didn’t offer Karstens arbitration was his injury history. Karstens has been a very consistent starter for the Pirates but the question is how long can he stay healthy? The Pirates really shouldn’t be counting on Karstens for more than about 120 innings max.

Locke – I feel pretty good about Locke but the issue with him is that he has no track record of big league success and has struggled when given his few chances. Locke has been a very successful AAA pitcher and while that probably should transition over to him being at least a solid 4/5 in the majors you never know until he actually does it.

McPherson – McPherson has had shoulder soreness twice in the past year and last time it cause him to miss a decent chunk of the season. Add in the fact that he has only made 3 starts at the AAA level and you have a pitcher who the Pirates should probably proceed cautiously with.

With all those question marks and the real possibility that a starter outside of those 6 might be needed the way the Pirates are currently constructed they would need to give the chances to one of the spot starter options in Gomez, Stewart, Leroux or Mazzaro. If those 4 are forced to make a combined 2-3 starts this year, ok stuff happens the team should be fine but if one of them is needed to move into the rotation in April or May it could very well likely signal bad things for the Pirates. For the Pirates and all teams really one of the most important keys is depth in the rotation and while that is coming for the Pirates it isn’t there yet. Ideally come midseason the Pirates will have a surplus to trade for needs in other areas or will be able to convert some starters into bullpen arms but you can’t go on expecting the ideal the Pirates need to prepare for the very real possibility that they may need an extra arm to help the rotation get through April and May. As long as health holds out Burnett, Rodriguez and McDonald should all start the season in the majors. McPherson would ideally start the year in AAA to get a few more starts and a little more polish. This leaves two rotation spots for Karstens and Locke. I would really like to see those two battle it out for the 5th spot with Locke going to AAA if he loses and Karstens being the swing man if he loses. The las rotation spot needs to go to someone on the outside. Perhaps the Liriano deal can be reworked and he can fill the last spot (his upside would really fit nicely with what the Pirates need) or perhaps another free agent such as Marcum or Saunders can be had or maybe a trade for someone like Capuano or Porcello but the bottom line is another arm needs to be added so the Pirates can have some reasonable security that they will be able to make him through April and May with their in house rotation options.

The Starting Rotation

There has been a lot of news lately about the Pirates seeking a starting pitcher but also about how they are comfortable with the internal options they have. The Pirates do have a fair number of internal options but it doesn’t appear like it is quite enough to go in to the season with. So lets take a look at those internal options the Pirates are currently counting on.

Locks For The Rotation

The Pirates have 3 locks for the starting rotation heading into the season. A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez and James McDonald all should start the season in the rotation and each one of them could be candidates to make 30+ starts and pitch 200+ innings but then again there are age concerns surrounding Burnett and Rodriguez and consistency questions surrounding McDonald. The Pirates are likely hoping that this trio can contribute roughly half of the starts they need in the 162 game season. More realistically though anywhere from 70-75 starts would be a good total.

Competing For A Rotation Spot

The Pirates have 3 players who look as if they are competing for the final 1 or 2 rotation spots in the rotation. These players are Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson and Vin Mazzaro. All three of these players could definitely have a positive impact on the rotation but then again all 3 of them are untested and unproven. Locke and McPherson both showed flashes of talent near the end of last season and of the 2 Locke seems to be the most polished and ready to take on a big league job. Mazzaro is out of options so the Pirates are either going to have to start the year with him on the 25 man roster or waive him. I really don’t see him as a starter but I expect the Pirates will give him a chance to compete for a job. I’m sure the Pirates would love to get 50-60 starts from this trio but I just don’t see it. If they can get anywhere from 30-35 starts that would be a success.

Mid Season Help

The Pirates have two players who look they will be ready to provide rotation depth some time around the middle of the year. Charlie Morton should b coming back from injury and Gerrit Cole should be polished enough from the minor league to make his debut. I have my doubts about Morton getting ready in the short 30 day window he will have but the Pirates appear to be counting on that so we will see. As for Cole we all know he is the top prospect and should make a very anticipated debut this season but we shall see how he fares and how long it takes him to get here. Both pitchers certainly have the talent to fill rotation spots for this club but again there is nothing for certain here. Ideally these guys would be able to provide a half a season each which would give them 30 starts but 15-20 would be a pretty good amount.

Prospects

There are two prospects outside of Gerrit Cole who appear like they could possibly make a start for the Pirates some time this season. They are Jameson Taillon and Phillip Irwin. Chances are neither will be ready until August at the earliest so counting on the for more than a handful of starts can’t be done. Taillon is of course a top prospect and Irwin is a very stable arm who with just a few months of AAA time could be a Jeff Karstens like starter for the Pirates. Again these two are talented and may play a key role in 2014 but in 2013 anything more than a taste of the majors would be highly unlikely. Around 5 starts is all that can be expected from this duo and even that may be high.

Good Stuff, Poor Control

The Pirates have two left handers who have great stuff but little control. It is uncertain rather the Pirates see them as starters or relievers right now but one would think they will each get a chance at starting in AAA at least to begin the season. These two players are Justin Wilson and Andy Oliver. Both of them are power lefties who if they can even slightly improve their control could be great starters or dominating back end relievers but that is one very big if there. The Pirates shouldn’t be counting on this pair for any starts but it would be a huge bonus if they could make some. I wouldn’t count on them for any but it wouldn’t surprise me to see 10+ starts out of this duo if one or both can take significant strides this season. More likely though these two will serve as bullpen options.

Others

The rest of the Pirates options are players who look better suite for relief work but could step up and make a spot start if needed. They are Chris Leroux, Rick VandenHurk, Zach Stewart and Chad Beck. These guys are really just emergency starters so if the Pirates need these guys for more than 1-2 starts things have probably gone horribly wrong. I would imagine that some of these guys will not even be with the Pirates at the start if the year and if they are 1 or 2 of them are likely to be removed from the roster.

Recap

So how many starts do we have from the internal options:

Locks: 75

Competing: 35

Mid Season: 20

The Rest: 10

Total: 140

The Pirates would probably be able to get by with what they have but my fairly realistic numbers seem to suggest that unless they get good luck in regards to health or are planning to count on players who they probably shouldn’t they are going to come up about 20 starts short. I believe it is important to avoid giving starts to players who just don’t appear ready and to have some backup plans should injuries arise. It is rather apparent to me that right now the Pirates need to bring in one more dependable starter because otherwise making it through the year is going to be rather difficult and could even get ugly. So the talk about Capuano and Porcello has plenty of merit and I expect the Pirates pursuit for their them or another pitcher will start to pick up in the coming weeks.

How Should the Pirates Proceed?

The Pirates have made a few moves so far this offseason but the team is by no means complete. Logically this raise the question what should the team do next? Well I figured this was as good a time as any to take a look at where the team as constructed stands.

Catcher

Starter: Russell Martin

Backup: Michael McKenry

Depth: Tony Sanchez, Ramon Cabrera, Ali Solis

Outlook: The Pirates have a solid starter in Martin who will hopefully put up average numbers for the position and a decent backup in McKenry they know is ready to step up and take a good chunk of playing time should he be called on to do so. In addition the Pirates have two solid prospects in Sanchez and Cabrera waiting at the AAA level and added Solis to serve as emergency depth just like Eric Fryer did last season. In an ideal world you would like to see the Pirates add a veteran 3rd catcher, much like Jose Morales last season, but in all likelihood what you see is what you are going to get here and that really isn’t a bad thing.

Infield (2B/3B/SS)

Starters: Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes

Backups: Brock Holt, Josh Harrison, Chase d’Arnaud, Jordy Mercer

Depth: Anderson Hernandez, Jared Goedert

Outlook: The Pirates have two of thier key regulars in Walker and Alvarez manning 2B and 3B respectively. At the other starting positions Clint Barmes provides a great glove but a weak bat so in an ideal situation looking for an upgrade over him would be on the agenda. In the real world immediate upgrades at the shortstop position are hard to come by so the Pirates should be looking for a replacement for Barmes in 2014 and beyond. The bench provides an interesting cast of characters who can play all 3 positions but not one of them is a proven commodity. Keeping two of them on the major league bench would be a bad idea so the Pirates should be exploring the market for a backup at these positions. As far as depth is concerned the Pirates have a couple minor league veterans should an emergency arise.

Outfield (1B/OF)

Starters: Garrett Jones/Gaby Sanchez, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider

Backups: Clint Robinson, Jose Tabata, Alex Presley

Depth: Matt Curry, Matt Hague, Jeff Larish, Felix Pie, Darren Ford, Adalberto Santos

Outlook: The Pirates have a lot of talent in the 1B/OF department but also a lot of question marks. At 1B Jones and Sanchez has the making of a good platoon but the Pirates are shopping Jones which is the right move considering his contract situation and the year he is coming off of. The Pirates shouldn’t trade him for nothing but a good return such as a shortstop for 2014 and beyond needs to be taken if offered. In the outfield the Pirates have one of the best players in the game in McCutchen and two young unproven players in Marte and Snider. Ideally you don’t want both players starting in the outfield to begin the season but once again this isn’t an ideal world. The Pirates should be considering bringing in a more proven outfielder but I understand the reasons they may choose not to do so. As far as the backups go Robinson provides the Pirates with an interesting fall back choice should they be successful in trading Jones. It would be risky to go into the season with him and Sanchez manning 1B but it might just be worth it. As the roster is currently constructed Presley and Tabata figure to fight for one bench spot. Presley is the more prototypical 4th outfielder but Tabata has the OBP skills the team is missing and since he is a righty would be able to spell Snider against tough lefties. Between those two the Pirates should have a solid 4th outfielder. As far as depth the Pirates have two solid prospects in Curry and Santos waiting in the wings and have a plethora of minor league depth to call upon if needed.

Rotation

Locks: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald

Competing: Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Justin Wilson, Vin Mazzaro, Rick VandenHurk

Depth: Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, Phillip Irwin, Brandon Cumpton, Brooks Brown, Zach Stewart, Chris Leroux,

Outlook: Burnett and Rodriguez look like solid pieces of the rotation. They are getting up there in age but the Pirates have little choice but to move ahead with them. McDonald is a big question mark but with all the positives he showed last season the Pirates agin have little choice but to move on with him as part of the rotation. Following those 3 the Pirates have a handful of players who look like non-horrible candidates to start the season as a 5th starter but in no way should two of them be counted on to begin the year. The Pirates absolutely have to look to acquire another starter who is a lock for the rotation. I believe this is the most important thing left to do. I would also like to see a more major league testes starter brought in on a minor league contract to compete for the 5th spot. Locke and McPherson would be solid 5th and 6th starters to begin the season but as 4th and 5th starters with little behind them the Pirates have a big hole. The rest of the players competing will ideally be reduced to bullpen roles or AAA depth. As for the depth the Pirates have a mixture of solid prospects, minor league vets and bullpen arms capable of making a start if needed. Aside from that there is Morton who will hopefully be back mid season and Cole who will hopefully be polished enough to make his debut by mid season. Those two will hopefully being to boost the rotation come the middle of the year.

Bullpen

Locks: Joel Hanrahan, Jared Hughes, Justin Wilson, Bryan Morris

Competing: Chris Leroux, Vin Mazzaro, Justin Wilson, Rick VandenHurk, Zach Stewart, Chad Beck, Duke Welker

Depth: Victor Black, David Bromberg, Erik Cordier, Mike Zagurski, Ryan Reid

Outlook: The bullpen is a mess right now. The Pirates are considering trading Hanrahan a move which they should consider but the value is likely to be low so if they don’t get something worthwhile he could always return and be the anchor for the pen. Outside of him Hughes, Watson and Morris look like sure bets to be part of next year’s bullpen and all of them should be solid. Next up is a large number of players competing for those final bullpen jobs. Its really anyone’s guess as to who will get them and to be honest the Pirates should feel perfectly comfortable with 2 arms coming out of that group. Serving as depth should injuries mount is a typical assortment of minor league depth and Victor Black who looks like a good back of the bullpen prospect. If he shows improved control he could be a quick addition. If Hanrahan is traded a proven bullpen arm or two should be added but even if he remains the Pirates should probably look for one anyway.

What They Need To Do?

1) Acquire a starting pitcher who can pitch a lot of quality innings.

2) Acquire a starting pitcher who will be able to compete for the 5th spot and provide depth in AAA

3) Keep their minds open to all possible trades especially Hanrahan and Jones

4) Look for a future replacement for Barmes at SS

5) Acquire 1 or 2 solid bullpen arms

6) Continue to stockpile bullpen options for the final 2 spots

7) Acquire a good utility player capable of playing the middle infield to improve the bench

Moves that Would be Made in an Ideal World

1) Acquire a veteran 3rd catcher to serve as depth in AAA

2) Acquire a proven 1B/OF so Marte and Snider don’t both play everyday

3) Acquire an immediate upgrade at the shortstop position

4) Acquire 2 young pieces to the starting rotation which would allow the possibility of moving Burnett or Rodriguez

5) Acquire 2 or 3 good arms for the bullpen

Position Recap: Relief Pitcher

Jared Hughes: Hughes had the most innings pitched out of the Pirates bullpen this season and overall had a pretty good season. His numbers weren’t dominant as he posted fewer than 6 K/9 but as the Pirates ground ball specialist that appears to be fairly acceptable. Hughes was used in multiple roles this season pitching some long relief at times and even getting a chance to close out a couple of games near the end of the season. There were some knocks against him near the end of the season for allowing a large amount of inherited runners to score but overall he only allowed 10 of 38 for a 26.3% rate. Which is perfectly reasonable. Looking at more traditional numbers like ERA and WHIP Hughes had a great season but he didn’t pitch quite as well as those numbers say even though he was good. The bottom line is Hughes put up a nice 60% ground ball rate and had good numbers supporting that, at a minimum that performance should earn him a middle relief job next season and possibly even give him a chance to win a set up role. Overall Grade: B

Chris Resop: Resop with 73.2 inning pitched had the second most innings out of the Pirates bullpen and did fair in his role. The one discouraging sign is that Resop has always been a strike out pitcher and this season his K/9 rate was down to 5.62 which diminishes his value and overall effectiveness. Usually ERA is not a great indicator of how a relief pitcher did during the course of a season but I think Resop’s 3.91 ERA fits him fairly nicely. He was an average middle reliever this season, the type you should be able to easily find. His WHIP was 1.43 and he allowed 10 of 27 inherited runners to score for a 37.0% rate. Basically Resop is what he is a fungible reliever who is capable of holding down the 6th or 7th spot in a bullpen but a reliever who can be easily upgraded upon. I’m not sure if the Pirates will bring Resop back next season or not but considering he should be relatively easy to replace I expect they will at least consider non tendering him. Overall Grade: C

Joel Hanrahan: Hanrahan threw 14 less innings than Resop and 16 less than Hughes but still received the 3rd most innings of any Pirates reliever. He was used almost exclusively in the 9th inning closer role this season which despite being largely debated by most bloggers is a practice I am relatively ok with. I would like to see some more creativity used but I pretty much accept it for what it is. Hanrahan posted a very strong, 10.11 K/9 but had some massive control problem posting a 5.43 BB/9. There were times this season when Hanrahan looked like his dominating self but there were also long stretches where he looked erratic and largely ineffective. Still more often than not Hanrahan got the job done even if it was not in impressive fashion. Hanrahan inherited only 7 runners this past season and left all of them stranded on the base paths. It was an up and down season for Hanrahan in which his numbers seem to suggest he pitched a whole lot better than he actually did. The Pirates will be able to bring him back next season for probably somewhere in between 7-7.5 million but I expect they will look to deal him. As for this past season I give Hanrahan an Overall Grade: C+

Jason Grilli: Grilli had a strong season posting an unbelievable 13.81 K/9 while posting a slightly high but still reasonable 3.38 BB/9. I think it is pretty clear he had the best season of any Pirates relief pitcher. Grilli pitched the 4th most relief innings for the Pirates this season but only inherited 6 runners which seems preposterous to me considering just how good he was but on the plus side none of the six scored. Grilli did start to get a little shaky near the end of the season but you really couldn’t have asked for much more from him this past season. Quite simply it was a stellar season. Grilli heads into free agency this offseason probably looking at a 2 year contract worth in the neighborhood of 8-10 million dollars. I’m not exactly sure if the Pirates will (or should) give him that kind of money and it will be one of the more interesting stories this offseason. Really not much more than excellent can be said when describing Grilli’s year. Overall Grade: A

Tony Watson: Watson for long stretches of time was the Pirates only lefty in the bullpen which was a large reason why he led the Pirates in relief pitch appearances despite finishing 5th in inning pitched. In addition to some other roles Watson filled this season the Pirates tried Watson as a lefty matchup specialist, it was a role he did ok in but he pitched essentially as well against lefties as he did righties which probably means he is better suited for a more traditional relief role and as a second lefty in the pen. The Pirates will hopefully look for a true lefty specialist this offseason so Watson can be freed up for other duties. Watson’s overall stat line doesn’t really jump off the page at you. I mean 8.94 K/9 is good but not dominating, a 3.38 ERA is good but again not great, and a 1.13 WHIP while very good is not eye-popping. However there was one thing Watson did extremely well this season and that was strand inherited runners. For the season Watson inherited a whopping 61 runners and only allowed 11 to score for a rate of 18.0%. Watson should be back next season as either the primary lefty in the bullpen or maybe as the fireman who comes in to try and put out the fires that the other pitchers started. Overall Grade: B

Brad Lincoln: Earlier I recapped Lincoln as a starting pitcher and he was awful but out of the bullpen he appeared to be an entirely different pitcher. He was as good as if not better than Grilli this season and was really settling into that role and looking good. Lincoln inherited 11 runners while with the Pirates and allowed none of them to score, plus he had an out of this world 99.3% strand rate. Quite simply Brad Lincoln in the bullpen was an awesome weapon Clint Hurdle had at his disposal when he was with the Pirates. We all know the rest though, come the trade deadline he was traded to Toronto for Travis Snider in a move that was praised and criticized by large chunks of the Pirates fan base. His removal from the bullpen no doubt hurt it but how much an impact it had can not really be said. For the record while with Toronto Lincoln was actually quite bad but since I’m judging him just on his performance out of the Pirates bullpen that is neither here nor there. It was a brief 35.2 innings but during that time in the bullpen we got to see the stuff and the talent which made Brad Lincoln a #4 overall pick. Overall Grade: A

Juan Cruz: Cruz pitched exactly the same number of innings as Lincoln did and had a fairly decent season. The overall stat line 8.33 K/9 and 2.78 ERA look pretty good but Cruz was getting very lucky and allowing a lot of base runners posting a 1.63 WHIP. When the Pirates released Cruz it surprised some people but in all reality he wasn’t pitching all that good. Still Cruz had a certain magic to him that allowed him to tip toe out a few tight spots and was certainly worth picking up off the scrap heap this past offseason as an NRI. Essentially Cruz like Resop was an average middle relief pitcher and really there is nothing wrong with that. The Pirates will likely look top pick up another pitcher like Cruz on the scrap heap again this offseason and if they pitch like Cruz did this season it should be considered a success. For the record he inherited 7 runners and allowed only 1 to score for a 14.3% rate. Cruz wasn’t really good but he wasn’t bad either Overall Grade: C

The Rest: The Pirates had another 106.1 innings pitched out of the pen that was picked up by 15 different pitchers. None of them pitched more than 13.2 innings (Qualls) and two of them (McCutchen and McDonald) didn’t even manage to record an out. Rather than go over each one individually I figured I’d lump them all together here. Qualls (13.2 IP) was pretty bad out of the pen but advanced numbers suggest he was unlucky (6.59 ERA, 3.94 xFIP), still his tiny 3.95 K/9 is a red flag. Doug Slaten (13.0 IP) was decent out of the pen but was a little lucky and overall looked like a pretty fungible average lefty relief pitcher. Evan Meek (12.0 IP) was down right awful out of the pen in his limited chances but did pitch rather well in AAA, regardless he is now a free agent and the Pirates have no reason to look at bringing him back. Kyle McPherson (11.2 IP) showed some good things in his limited time in the bullpen which led to him getting a few starts near the end of the season. Chris Leroux (11.1 IP) put up some bad numbers in limited action from the bullpen but pitched far better than those numbers would indicate and appears to be in line for the long relief job in next year’s bullpen. Kevin Correia’s (10.1 IP) time in the bullpen was pretty much like his time in the rotation, mediocre, he wasn’t bad but not good either just decent. Hisanori Takahashi (8.1 IP) posted a good strike out rate (11.88 K/9) but was overall rather bad in his limited action; he is a free agent and probably won’t be brought back. Jeff Karstens (7.1 IP) didn’t get a lot of time in the bullpen but did pitch some average innings out of it late in the season. Bryan Morris (5.0 IP) amazingly pitched very sparingly out of the bullpen this season. Morris is out of options so the Pirates will either need to wave him in 2013 or put him on the roster but yet they really choose not to take much of a look at him. For the record he was fairly good in his 5 innings of work and had a good season in AAA; he should be in the opening day bullpen next season. Justin Wilson (4.2 IP) was a starter in AAA this season but pitched only relief with the Pirates and he did fairly well in his limited opportunities. The Pirates seem to want to keep him starting so he’ll probably return to AAA next season but does have a chance of winning a bullpen job out fo spring training. Jeff Locke (4.1 IP) came up for a fairly odd stint with the Pirates bullpen in which they only intended to use him for long relief so as to not mess up his pitching schedule I guess. Regardless he didn’ allow a run in his brief time and held runners to an absurd .077 BABIP of course nothing can be drawn from that and Locke will of course return to starting next season whether it be in the majors or at AAA. Rick VandenHurk (2.2 IP) got called up to the majors in September on the strength of a good showing in AAA but really didn’t get to show much while with the team. His 2.2 innings weren’t great though he did show he could miss some bats but VandenHurk looks like a possible cut to free up space on the 40 man roster. Wandy Rodriguez (2.0 IP) threw only 2 innings of relief this season and I bet most of you remember those two innings, Rodriguez came in to pitch the 18th and 19th innings of the Pirates 19 inning marathon win over the St Louis Cardinals. For what it is worth he pitched well in those 2 innings and as a starter seemed to settle in nicely with the Pirates rotation after this appearance. Daniel McCutchen (0.0 IP) failed to record an out this season in his only appearance but faced only 2 batters. Considering he wasn’t even called up in September McCutchen is a candidate to be cut this offseason. Finally we have James McDonald (0.0 IP) who liked McCutchen didn’t record a single out but faced 4 batters in the process. At the time he was pitching in relief McDonald had pretty much lost it so there is little surprise he failed to record an out. Hopefully his demotion to the bullpen is just a blip on the radar as McDonald should return to the rotation next season.

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