2013 Expectations: Mid Level Prospects

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Top Hitting Prospects

The top 5 hitting prospects in the Pirates system all are expected to begin to 2013 season in either A or A+ ball. Dilson Herrera should skip over short season ball and start the year in A ball and Josh Bell should join him there as he is expected to repeat the level. Herrera is a popular break out candidate for 2013 and certainly has the tools to do. He is coming off a very solid 2012 season in rookie ball in which he displayed a good all around offensive game. I’m expecting a very good season from Herrera and while I don’t think he will necessary break out I don’t expect him to do anything to hurt his status. Joining him in A ball will be Bell who missed most of last season with a knee injury. At this point it is difficult to know just what to expect from Bell but a good start is I wasn’t to see him healthy and hitting for power. I’m thinking his overall line might not sparkle being essentially his first professional season but if those two things are present it should be a decent year for Bell. At the A+ level the Pirates will have the two top hitting prospects in Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco and also last year’s supplemental pick Barrett Barnes. Barnes had a very solid debut in A- last season and will be looking to continue it at a much more age appropriate level. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him struggle with the jump but we shall see. Hanson broke out last season and has a tremendous bat for a middle infielder but his defensive game needs a lot of work if he is to remain at shortstop. The Pirates will likely have him focus on improving defensively which I think might end up hurting his overall offensive numbers this season in particular his power. Going step for step with Hanson last season in A ball was Gregory Polanco. Polanco’s season last year was just as impressive as Hanson’s and in fact I think it was slightly better. Polanco will start the season in A+ but if he is successful I expect the Pirates to give him a mid season promotion to AA. My instinct tells me this will be another big year for Polanco so that isn what I am expecting.

Top Pitching Prospects

The Pirates middle levels aren’t just chalked full of hitting prospects as there are 4 top pitching prospects also expected to play at one of the A levels this season. The only one expected to pitch in A+ though is Nicholas Kingham. Kingham had a rough start to his 2012 campaign and finished the season with a poor ERA but he improved greatly as the year progress, finishing strong and posting solid peripherals. He probably doesn’t have the ace upside of the top pitching prospects at the A ball level but he is father along developmentally and looks like he could become a good middle of the rotation inning eater. I think Kingham will take a significant step forward this season. At the A ball level the Pirates are likely to have Luis Heredia and Clayton Holmes and may also have Tyler Glasnow pitching at the level. Heredia is the top prospect here as he put up excellent numbers in A- last season despite being younger than most of his competition. The Pirates will likely continue to proceed slowly with Heredia but I suspect we will continue to see good things from him and I expect him to start missing a few more bats this season. Along with Heredia in A- Clayton Holmes was putting up excellent numbers but unlike Heredia he comes with a couple warning signs. One his delivery is very awkward looking at two he struggled with control at times last season while not striking out many batters. I expect the jump to A level is going to be a big test for him and I think he’ll struggle. Glasnow pitched in rookie ball last year with just a taste of A- at the end of the year. He was dominate in rookie ball and did fairly well in short season ball as well. The Pirates may opt to keep him in short season but my expectation is they will hold him back in extended spring training and then give him a shot at A ball. I actually think he’ll do quite well at whichever level he pitches and I could see him shooting up some prospect lists.

Other Hitting Prospects

In addition to the top level hitters the Pirates have a good assortment of the next level of hitters ready to play in the middle levels. At the A+ level the talent is a little light but Jose Osuna is a very solid 1st base prospect and could be on the verge of a breakout. Lost in the hype surrounding Hanson and Polanco was Osuna’s very solid season in A ball. He didn’t put up the show stopping numbers but it was still a very good season. Osuna is limited defensively to 1st base so his bat is going to have to carry him but he has shown the power potential which suggests it just might. I’m not expecting a full breakout from Osuna but I think he’ll once again post a good line while going largely unnoticed in 2013. In A ball the talent is a little deeper with Wyatt Mathisen, Jin-De Jhang, Eric Wood, Max Moroff and Willy Garcia all having a chance to start there. Mathisen is the headliner of the group and is considered by some to be the Pirates 5th or 6th best hitting prospect. He is an athletic young catcher who is learning the position and has a good solid bat. Jhang split catching duties with Mathisen in rookie ball last season and had a very good season there. It is possible the Pirates choose to split the two up but I think they will both be promoted to A ball and will continue to split the catching duty. Wood and Moroff also played in rookie ball last season manning 3B and SS respectively. Wood had a surprising debut after being a relatively unknown 6th round selection and Moroff showed why the Pirates went overslot to sign him after the Appel signing fell through. Garcia played at A ball last season and wasn’t horrible but he was inconsistent which makes me believe the Pirates will start him back at the level. All the players in this group are candidates to break out and become top hitting prospects. The chances of all of them doing so are slim but I expect at least 1 or 2 of them will do so.

Other Pitching Prospects

The Pirates are lacking a little in the middle levels in the second tier of pitching prospects. Only three names Robby Rowland, Zach Von Rosenberg and Adrian Sampson really catch my eye. Rowland and Von Rosenberg are likely to begin the year in A+ ball. Rowland was acquired last offseason when the Diamondbacks traded him to the Pirates in exchange for the rights to Rule V selection Brett Lorin. Rowland was an underwhelming prospect but he put up a solid season in A ball last year to get on the map. He is one to watch although I think he is going to struggle in the jump to A+. Von Rosenberg is actually one of my under the radar breakout picks. He was drafted by the Pirates in the 6th round of the 2009 draft and he was the most high profile of the large lot of high school arms the Pirates went overslot for to sign. To date Von Rosenberg hasn’t been that impressive as he repeated A ball last year and while his numbers were decent they weren’t exactly what one would hope to see. The Pirates are likely to try him at A+ and I’m going to predict he will have a good season and reemerge on the prospect map. The other pitcher Sampson was drafted by the Pirates last season and sent to A- ball where he pitched extremely well and was one of the few pitchers at that level to actually have a high strike out rate. I’m not really sure what to expect from him in 2013 but I think he has a chance to develop into a good pitching prospect.

Prospects To Watch

I already picked a few of the middle tier prospects who I think have a strong chance of breaking out. I didn’t say which hitters I’d specifically lean towards but if pushed I’d probably go with Jin-De Jhang and max Moroff and on the pitching side I’m expecting a big step up from Von Rosenberg. Digging a little deeper though I see a few under the radar names who could emerge as quality prospects. On the pitching side two players I like are Dalton Friend and Joely Rodriguez. Friend was drafted by the Pirates last year in the 12th round and looks like just a relief pitcher but his stuff is fairly good and he had success last year in A- so I think the Pirates will push him to A+ to see if he has success there and I’m expecting him to rather well and take on the look of a good relief prospect. Rodriguez has been underwhelming so far in his pro career but showed some positive signs in A- last year. I’d be a fool to say I’m expecting a breakout but I like some of what I saw and if the Pirates push him to A ball in 2013 I think he could put up a nice season and become the Pirates second best international pitching prospect (behind Heredia); that in itself won’t be much of an accomplishment but I do think he’ll raise his stalk this year and take on the look of a fringe prospect instead of an organizational arm. On the hitting side under the radar guys are a little harder to find because the Pirates have a lot of top prospects or second tier prospects filling spots. In all honesty I really don’t see too much there but one player I like who I think could surprise if he can get the playing time is Taylor Lewis. Lewis struggled last year in A ball and might repeat the level and if he does he should have a reasonable chance of getting some time in center field but the Pirates might push him to A+ ball and they do he’ll probably serve as a 4th outfielder there. Lewis came from a small school so he probably needs a little more development time than your typical prospect but the talent is there and given a chance I think he could turn himself into a nice prospect this season.

Roster Status

At this point the Pirates are roughly half way through the spring training schedule. Yesterday they cut 11 players from camp, none of which were a surprise so that leaves the Pirates with 51 players left in camp. Over the course of the next 2 weeks or so that list is going to have to be pared down to only 25 players which means there are 26 more cuts in the forthcoming. Looking at how the roster currently sits I see 21 players with fairly secure spots on the team assuming they remain healthy and conversely  I see 19 players who I believe have little to no chance of making the team out of Spring Training unless injuries were to occur. That leaves 4 open roster spots for the remaining 11 players to compete for.

Roster Locks

Lineup: Russell Martin, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes, Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider

Barring injury this is the starting eight I figured we’d see on opening day since the beginning of Spring Training and nothing has happened to make me change my mind.

Bench: Michael McKenry, Gaby Sanchez, Jose Tabata

Much like the starting 8 I had figured these 3 to be near locks for the roster from the beginning of Spring Training and to date nothing has happened to make me change my opinion.

Rotation: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Jeff Locke

Once it became apparent Liriano wasn’t going to be ready for the beginning of the season it appeared quite likely that the above 5 would comprise the Pirates rotation. There is still one question mark remaining though and that is the health of Karstens. Right now he appears as if he should be ready for the start of the season but if he isn’t Kyle McPherson would likely take his place.

Bullpen: Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, Jared Hughes, Bryan Morris

Again assuming good health these 5 players were essentially guaranteed a 25 man roster spot at the start of the season. As expected nothing has happened to change this so expect these 5 to be part of the opening day squad.

Likely Cuts

Catchers: Tony Sanchez, Lucas May, Ali Solis, Carlos Paulino

These 4 catchers were only brought to major league camp to help work out all the extra arms. I expect once the number of arms begins to thin out these catchers will start to be cut as well.

Infielders: Chase d’Arnaud, Jared Goedert

D’Arnaud had an outside chance of making the team entering Spring Training but has been injured for most of it so his chances now are likely next to none. Goedert entered camp as basically just a body to take up some early ST innings but he has played exceptionally well still he is a long shot for the roster.

Outfielders: Alex Presley, Brad Hawpe, Felix Pie

Huntington has shown in the past he prefers to have two utility infielders on the bench so the chances of the Pirates carrying a 5th outfielder seem slim to none. The Pirates already have their 4 outfielders in place so barring an injury or an unexpected decision to carry a 5th outfielder there just isn’t any room for any of these three.

Starting Pitchers: Kyle McPherson, Gerrit Cole, Phillip Irwin, Francisco Liriano, Charlie Morton

McPherson entered with a chance of making the rotation over Locke but it was a long shot and he has done nothing to distinguish himself to this point (written before his strong outing today but still his overall line still doesn’t stand out). Right now it appears his only chance of making the team would be some sort of injury. Cole hopefully won’t be in the minors long but the Pirates want him to get a little seasoning in AAA before bringing him up to the majors, Irwin is turning heads this spring but like McPherson and Cole he would probably be best served to get some more time in AAA. The last Liriano and Morton would be candidates to make the team or even locks would they be healthy but both are likely to start the season on the DL.

Relief Pitchers: Vin Mazzaro, Andy Oliver, Jose Contreras, Kyle Waldrop, Ryan Reid

All these pitchers are unlikely to stick for a variety of reasons. Mazzaro has gotten a decent look in camp but was removed from the 40 man roster earlier this year, if the Pirates were serious about him possibly starting with the major league club that wouldn’t have happened. Olive has gotten a look but has shown poor control and will likely be kept in AAA where they will work on improving it. Contreras is currently rehabbing and won’t be ready to start the season. Waldrop and Reid were signed to minor league deals and have pitched well this spring but the way the Pirates are using them suggests they don’t see them as much more than depth options.

Open Competitions

Bench Infielders: Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Jordy Mercer, Ivan De Jesus

Along with Chase d’Arnaud these 4 have been competing for the 2 bench utility infield jobs since the beginning of spring. Right now it is difficult to say just who the favorites are but if I were pushed to guess I would say the Pirates might be leaning towards Harrison and Inge. Mercer and De Jesus have undoubtedly had the best springs and are also the best options to backup shortstop but in reality it seems like this was probably not a fair fight. Harrison seems to be very well liked by the Pirates management and Inge fills the veteran role Hurdle seems to like to have on his bench. Personally I’d think it would be a mistake to carry both but right now I’d lean that way. Ideally the Pirates would seek upgrade over these options or even contemplate carrying only one but short of that I think the best option would be to carry one of De Jesus or Mercer and one of Harrison or Inge. De Jesus or Mercer would give the Pirates a competent backup option at shortstop and Inge or Harrison would give the Pirates slightly more offense and a right handed caddy for Alvarez in case he struggles.

Bullpen: Chris Leroux, Bryce Brown, Jeanmar Gomez, Justin Wilson, Mike Zagurski, Kris Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez

I actually see this as two separate competitions. The Pirates haven’t publicly stated anything but I suspect in addition to the 5 players who appear to be locks for the bullpen they wish to carry a long reliever and a second lefty to round out the pen. Leroux, Brown and Gomez seem like the logical candidates for the long relief job. Leroux and Gomez because they are on the 40 man roster and out of options and Brown was signed to a contract like Reid and Waldrop but he is being used in such a way that suggests the Pirates see some potential in him. Gomez has been awful this spring so he really shouldn’t factor into this discussion but he remains on the fringes. Of Leroux and Brown right now I’d give the edge to Leroux because he seems to fit the Pirates mold and is on the roster and out of options but this one is probably pretty close. The last spot in the bullpen will likely go to a second lefty. I list 4 competitors but at this point Sanchez is likely out of the conversation as he has shown no control. Zagurski and Johnson are non-roster players who have pitcher fairly well this spring and Johnson has the momentum of a strong 2012 season and strong winter ball campaign propelling him up this list. Wilson is a candidate to return to AAA and once again try his hand as a starter but the Pirates could opt to keep him in the majors as a relief pitcher. Zagurski has the major league experience and has looked the best this spring, Johnson has the momentum and Wilson has the status. I think this is the closest race there is right now but as of now I’ll give the edge to the rostered player and say Wilson would get my vote.

2013 Expectations: Upper Level Prospects

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Top Prospects

At the very top of my personal top Pirates prospects list the Pirates have a group I call the top 6 and a group I call the next 6. Two of the top 6 prospects and 1 of the next 6 prospects will be beginning the 2013 season either in AA, AAA or perhaps the major leagues. The two top prospects are of course Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. The next 6 prospect is Kyle McPherson. Cole is likely to garner the most attention and will likely start the season out in AAA but with a few adjustments and a strong start to the season he could see Pittsburgh fairly early on. Big things are expected from Cole and I fully expect we will see him in Pittsburgh come June or July. Cole may be the ace the Pirates are sorely lacking but it is not realistic to expect him to be that right out of the gate. I expect his major league time to be solid but lacking the elite quality we all will hope to see. Taillion should start the year in AA with a chance for a mid season promotion to AAA. I have high hopes that 2013 will be the year he unleashes his full arsenal and starts putting up the dominant minor league numbers we all hoped we would see. McPherson is competing for a major league rotation spot this spring but barring injuries I see him starting the year in the AAA rotation. McPherson will definitely get some time in the majors this season and I would like to see him perform well enough to earn a 2014 rotation spot. I think McPherson has the upside of a solid middle of the rotation starter and I have reasonably high hopes he will take the first steps towards establishing himself as one this season.

Hitting Prospects

The Pirates upper levels aren’t exactly brimming with hitting talent. The top prospects are probably Tony Sanchez, Adalberto Santos, Alex Dickerson, Gift Ngoepe and if he is promoted to AA Mel Rojas Jr. Sanchez I have already discussed this is a pivotal year for him to have a solid season in AAA and in the likely event of one of the Pirates two catchers suffering an injury this season I would expect Sanchez to be a candidate to be called up to the majors. My expectation is Sanchez will have a solid but not great year in AAA and struggle offensively during any brief major league stint. Santos, Dickerson and Ngoepe I could see all starting in AA this season. Santos has a case to move up to AAA but the crowded outfield will likely hold him back. Hopefully one or more of these three will show something this season that lets the Pirates believe they could be contributors to the 2014 team. My expectations aren’t really high for any of them as I expect Dickerson’s numbers to be solid but again not where they need to be for an all bat player, Santos to regress from his good contact ways and Ngoepe to show only minimal improvement with the bat. The remaining hitting prospects with some intrigue are Ivan De Jesus, Matt Curry, Clint Robinson and Carlos Paulino. De Jesus, Curry and Robinson should start the year in AAA and could be called upon to serve as major league depth this season. Of the 3 my expectations are the highest for De Jesus who I think could develop into a nice middle infield utility player.

Pitching Prospects

Outside of the top 3 pitching prospects I discussed the Pirates have a bunch of interesting arms projected to begin the season in one of the top two levels or the major leagues. Bryan Morris, Justin Wilson, Andy Oliver, Phillip Irwin and Victor Black are all very intriguing arms with some degree of chance of making the major league squad but most likely for all except Morris and possibly Wilson they will start the season in AAA. I have previously discussed Morris and Wilson so I’ll focus on the other 3. Oliver to me looks like another Justin Wilson type project who the Pirates will try to fix his control this season. Irwin has the look of a crafty righty with a know how to pitch and a good enough arsenal of pitches where he could be an effective back of the rotation starter. Black has the makings of a late inning shut down reliever but needs some fine tuning before he gets there. My expectation is that Oliver won’t show much improvement with his control and will wind up in the bullpen and the other two will show positive signs of improvement and I wouldn’t be shocked if either or both of them spent a fair amount of time in the majors this year. In AA the pitching talent is a little less deep outside of Taillon but two guys I’ll be watching are Stolmy Pimentel and Casey Sadler. With this being Pimentel’s last option year I expect the Pirates to move him to the bullpen and Sadler shown enough the Pirates are likely to keep him starting but I think they see him as a reliever long term. I don’t have high hopes for Pimentel this season but I think Sadler will show enough promise the Pirates will add him to the roster at the end of the season. There are a bunch of other semi-interesting pitching prospects in the upper levels but the 4 that catch my eye are Duke Welker, Brandon Cumpton, Tyler Waldron and Hunter Strickland. Welker and Strickland are on the 40 man roster and will need to show something to prove they belong there. I think Strickland will surprise people but my expectation is that Welker will struggle. As for the other two I think both will be converted to relief roles this spring to see if either is worth protecting from the Rule V draft this upcoming offseason. I suspect one of these two will wind up being the Pirates yearly surprise addition to the roster.

Prospects To Watch

I already mentioned that I think De Jesus, Waldron and Cumpton are a couple under the radar names to keep an eye on but I want to dig a little deeper and mention a few players who look like organizational players at this point who interest me. Jared Goedert is having a solid spring and while I don’t expect a whole lot out of him if he hits well in AAA he could get a chance in the majors and I think he has a chance to find a niche there as a good pinch hitting option. Michael Colla has flown under the radar but he has had moderate success at essentially every level. He could potential earn a chance to pitch as a middle reliever some time this season. A few other players I plan on keeping an eye on down in AA are Justin Howard, Kelson Brown and Tim Alderson. Howard is a 1st baseman with limited power but a pretty good knack for making contact. The Pirates have tried using him in the outfield some and with no real option to man 3B in AA I wouldn’t be shocked to see him trotted out there. If he can manage to be competent defensively in the outfield and third base his good contact ability could gain him some traction as a potential bench option down the road. Brown is the type of player who is solid in all aspects of the game but wonderful in none. He plays multiple positions, makes decent contact, shows a little power and is sound defensively. However he does none of those things at a high or low level. He has been fairly successful at every level and as I said with Howard the opening at 3B provides him with a chance to get some playing time and if given a chance he could surprise some people. Alderson has been written off by nearly everyone at this point and with very good reason but he is still relatively young. The last two seasons he has shown progress in converting to a reliever and a more finesse pitcher. He isn’t ever going to become what the Pirates hoped they were acquiring when they traded Freddy Sanchez for him but maybe there is enough talent left in him to develop into a marginal relief prospect. Now for the standard disclaimer my expectation of the players I discussed at length here is that they will continue on their path as organizational guys but of that group the names I noted I believe have the best chance to surprise in 2013.

Projecting the A+ Roster

Catcher

Candidates: Jacob Stallings, Elias Diaz, Francisco Diaz, Kawika Emsley-Pai, Devin Ivany

Analysis: The Pirates do not have a real prospect ready to man the catching position in A+ so the spot will likely go to a fringe prospect or organizational guy. Carlos Paulino is an option to repeat the level yet again but I suspect the Pirates will push him to AA. That leaves us essentially with the candidates I listed above. Ivany was signed to a minor league contract this offseason and could really play anywhere from A+ to AAA. Emsley-Pai and Francisco Diaz look like organizational catchers who will fill in where they are needed in the middle levels. Stallings and Elias Diaz retain just a hint of prospect status. Diaz has been with the Pirates a few years though so his lack of progress could cause the Pirates to shift him towards an organizational role. Stallings was just drafted last year and is probably the best defensive catcher in the organization. He hasn’t show any ability to hit though. Stallings defense should keep him at the prospect borderline for another season or two though.

Prediction: Jacob Stallings

Infield

Candidates: Jose Osuna, Dan Gamache, Eric Avila, Chris Lashmet, Alen Hanson, DJ Crumlich, Kirk Singer, Andy Vasquez, Benji Gonzalez

Analysis: Personally I think the starting infield at the A+ level is fairly straightforward. Osuna and Hanson are locks to handle 1B and SS respectively which only leaves 2B and 3B open. Dan Gamache is coming off a fairly strong year in A ball and I would imagine the Pirates will give him the first crack at 2B in A+. Third base is a bit more wide open but Avila finished the year strong showing a good power surge so I’m guessing he’ll start the year as the third baseman. The other options will have to earn playing time and will likely fill some bench roles in A+ to start the year.

Prediction: Jose Osuna (1B), Dan Gamache (2B), Eric Avila (3B), Alen Hanson (SS)

Outfield

Candidates: Gregory Polanco, Barrett Barnes, Taylor Lewis, Junior Sosa, Mel Rojas, Willy Garcia, Carlos Mesa

Analysis: There are two locks in the above group and that is Gregory Polanco and Barrett Barnes both are probably top 10 prospects in the Pirates organization and are ready for A+ so they will play. The last spot is a bit more of a question mark. Gaffney was a prime candidate to take a spot before he returned to college football and Garcia is the best prospect of the remaining group but he didn’t show a lot in A ball last year. Of the rest Sosa and Mesa look like organizational filler, Lewis a project and Rojas as a fading prospect who may be pushed to AA for last audition.

Prediction: Barrett Barnes (LF), Gregory Polanco (CF), Mel Rojas (RF)

Bench

Analysis: The bench will of course consist of the players listed who I have not assigned starting roles to. The options are not very clear at this point. Obviously a backup catcher will be retained. I also suspect that we will see two of the infielders retained, I think Crumlich with his strong debut last season is the safest bet of the group and we will also see one outfielder. There is one final spot and I think that will go to a player who will split DHing duties with the 4th outfielder.

Prediction: Elias Diaz, DJ Crumlich, Kirk Singer, Chris Lashmet, Taylor Lewis

Rotation

Candidates: Nicholas Kingham, Robby Rowland, Zach Von Rosenberg, Matt Benedict, Zachary Fuesser, Kenn Kasparek, Luis Sanz, Zack Dodson

Analysis: It is difficult to handicap the pitching staffs as we get this low into the minors. The Pirates have a lot of options and at times it can be difficult to figure just who they are high on. In this case I think 3 of the 5 starting pitchers are or should be rather clear. Kingham, Rowland and Von Rosenberg all have earned a chance to show what they can do in A+. The rest of the group is a smattering of borderline prospects of which I can’t decipher who the Pirates are still high on. Dodson is suspended to begin the season and obviously won’t start the year with anybody but is a candidate to join the A+ rotation shortly after his suspension ends. Sanz I originally pegged for the AA rotation but I’m having second thoughts on that and he could come into player here.

Prediction: Nicholas Kingham, Robby Rownalnd, Zach Von Rosenberg, Matt Benedict, Kenn Kasparek

Bullpen

Analysis: Like all minor league bullpens my prediction is just a shot in the dark in which I pick seven names I kind of like who I think would make sense.

Prediction: Zachary Fuesser, Porfirio Lopez, Dalton Friend, Pat Ludwig, Rinku Singh, Nathan Kilcrease, Quinton Miller

The Great Arms Race

I’ve been doing a lot of analysis this offseason trying to see how the Pirates stacked up against their NL Central foes in certain aspects last season. I’ve taken a look at several areas of the offensive side of the game to date but as of yet I have not done so for the pitching or defensive side of the game. This is my first attempt at such a comparison. I wanted to take a look at how the Pirates stacked up against the other 4 remaining NL central teams last season on the basis of rotation spots (I’m speaking #1 starter, #2 … #5).

This of course presented problems with defining who I should slot into what rotation spot so as I usually do I made a couple simple, logical, rational decisions. My first decisions was to take all 162 starts from each team and assume a perfect distribution meaning the number 1 starter started 33 times, the number 2 starter started 33 times and the rest each started 32 times. Obviously it doesn’t work this way in reality but I needed a starting point. My next assumption was a way to solve who to slot into what spot. I opted to order all the players who started for a particular team according to the fWAR they produced per start. I then grouped the pitchers together until I compiled the necessary number of starts. Obviously this wasn’t a perfect solution as this caused some players to be counted in two different rotation spots. I handled that by calculating the starter’s average start and assigning the correct number of average starts to each group. The stats I opted to use are ERA, FIP, xFIP, WHIP, K:BB (strike out to walk ratio) and fWAR. For comparison sake I also did this exercise on the NL as a whole and included those results. So without further ado below are the results:

#1 Starter

Reds: 2.78 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 3.47 K:BB, 4.8 WAR

Cardinals: 3.81 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, 3.38 K:BB, 4.8 WAR

Brewers: 3.33 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 3.08 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 3.69 K:BB, 5.5 WAR

Pirates: 3.53 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 3.43 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 2.94 K:BB, 3.6 WAR

Cubs: 3.04 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 3.15 K:BB, 4.1 WAR

National League: 3.14 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 3.72 K:BB, 4.9 WAR

 

#2 Starter

Reds: 3.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 3.79 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 2.89 K:BB, 3.1 WAR

Cardinals: 3.51 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.52 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 3.61 K:BB, 4.2 WAR

Brewers: 3.76 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 4.42 K:BB, 4.1 WAR

Pirates: 3.99 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, 2.59 K:BB, 2.6 WAR

Cubs: 3.79 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, 2.73 K:BB, 2.8 WAR

National League: 3.72 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 3.80 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 2.90 K:BB, 3.3 WAR

 

#3 Starter

Reds: 3.68 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 3.23 K:BB, 2.7 WAR

Cardinals: 3.15 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 3.26 K:BB, 3.4 WAR

Brewers: 3.73 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 2.82 K:BB, 2.8 WAR

Pirates: 4.72 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 4.09 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, 2.14 K:BB, 1.8 WAR

Cubs: 5.00 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, 2.65 K:BB, 1.7 WAR

National League: 3.88 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.98 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 2.78 K:BB, 2.4 WAR

 

#4 Starter

Reds: 3.74 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 3.67 K:BB, 2.5 WAR

Cardinals: 3.82 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 2.47 K:BB, 2.9 WAR

Brewers: 3.68 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 2.59 K:BB, 2.3 WAR

Pirates: 4.15 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 4.30 xFIP, 1.33 WHIP, 2.08 K:BB, 1.4 WAR

Cubs: 4.80 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 4.61 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, 2.08 K:BB, 0.7 WAR

National League: 4.49 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.22 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, 2.12 K:BB, 1.5 WAR

 

#5 Starter

Reds: 4.66 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, 2.59 K:BB, 1.4 WAR

Cardinals: 3.84 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, 2.03 K:BB, 2.1 WAR

Brewers: 5.52 ERA, 5.12 FIP, 4.55 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, 2.06 K:BB, 0.0 WAR

Pirates: 4.82 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 2.37 K:BB, 0.6 WAR

Cubs: 6.52 ERA, 5.46 FIP, 5.03 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, 1.23 K:BB, -0.3 WAR

National League: 5.27 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 4.68 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 1.74 K:BB, 0.1 WAR

Statistically speaking the Pirates #1 and #2 starters in 2012 performed the worst of the 5 remaining teams in NL Central. The performance of the Cubs pitchers are relatively close but as for the 3 teams that finished ahead of them there is no contest. The #3 and #4 starters for the Pirates performed slightly better than their Cubs counterparts but once again were lagging behind the rest of the division. The #5 starter for the Pirates performed better than the same rotation spot for the Cubs and Brewers but once again was behind the Reds and Cardinals. The numbers I presented seem to suggest the Pirates had the worst rotation in the NL Central last season (Astros excluded) and that actually probably isn’t far off from reality. There could be an argument between them and the Cubs but I would lean towards putting the Cubs ahead of them based upon the numbers.

Obviously this is something the Pirates are going to need to improve upon in 2013. The team can’t be successful if every team in the division is out performing them rotation spot for rotation spot. If you look at the numbers closely you may see the same pattern I do and that is the Pirates appear to be about a rotation spot behind. What I mean by that is the Pirates #1 starter would have made a solid #2 last season and the #2 would have been a solid #3 and so on. The Pirates did not add an ace caliber arm this offseason and though there are some arms in the rotation with that capability (McDonald and Liriano) it is unlikely to expect one will emerge. Down the line Cole may give the Pirates that boost but in the mean time the gap has got to be made up in other ways. The only way to fix this problem without becoming better at the top end is to become stronger and deeper throughout. The Cardinals and Reds last season got below NL average production from their #1 starter but the rest of the rotation (aside from the Reds #2) performed above, and in some cases well above, NL average. That is the same plan the Pirates must use in 2013 but actually to an even greater extent. The Pirates do not have a 5 WAR pitcher to sit atop the rotation so what they need is a rotation of 3 WAR players to help balance out the disparity. Rodriguez, Burnett, McDonald, Liriano and some combination of Karstens, Locke, McPherson, Cole, etc has the talent to do that but it is going to take a little luck to get there but if the Pirates don’t get there and a true ace does not emerge 2013 will likely be yet another season in which the Pirates fall out of contention early on.

2013 Expectations: Bullpen Part 2

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Due to the nature of the job the bullpen arms perform I am not going to bother predicting exact numbers for each player but instead focus on a more general idea of what my expectation is for each player. With a small sample of innings the numbers of bullpen pitchers can vary greatly without there being much variance in their actual performance. As a whole thought I’m expecting the Pirates bullpen to be roughly like the rest of the team which is basically around average. It’s tough to put a number on the bullpen but I could see them being worth roughly 1.5-2.0 WAR this season.

Bryan Morris

Morris is out of options and is an interesting enough arm that the Pirates will almost surely decide to keep him on the 25 man roster as part of the bullpen. He doesn’t really have much major league experience but he was effective in his limited sample size last year. I actually think Morris will do quite well this season and I see him as being the team’s best reliever this season which should end up giving him a chance at the closer role either later on this year or next year.

Justin Wilson

I currently have Wilson slated in for one of the final two bullpen spots but it is a decision I am constantly going back and forth on. The Pirates could certainly opt to keep him starting at AAA but at this point I’m not sure we can expect much improvement in his control. Hurdle has stated he would prefer to have two lefty relievers in his bullpen and as of right now Wilson appears to be the second best option the Pirates have. If he makes the bullpen out of spring training my expectation is that he will be shaky at first trying to get used to the position but he has the stuff where I believe he could eventually settle in as the number one lefty out of the bullpen and maybe even as a set up man.

Chris Leroux

The last bullpen job I currently have going to Chris Leroux. I won’t make it a secret I really like Leroux and I think he could make for a very serviceable reliever for the Pirates. Even with Wilson who is capable of going multiple innings I believe the Pirates will opt to carry a more traditional long reliever and Leroux fits that description. He should easily be able to give the Pirates 2-3 innings when needed and his stuff is good enough that they should be very solid innings at that. I think he’ll be decent in his time with the Pirates, if he makes the team, but I don’t see him finishing the year with the Pirates as his out of options status makes him a candidate to be waived at some point this season.

Jeanmar Gomez

I think Leroux’s main competition for the last bullpen job heading into spring training at least was Gomez. The Pirates acquired him from the Indians for minor league Quincy Latimore. Gomez is on the 40 man roster and out of options which gives him a fighting chance to make the roster but he has been fairly terrible so far this spring so I see no way he makes it. Should he end up spending time with the Pirates my expectations for him are rather low.

The Rest

The Pirates have a few more bullpen options I briefly want to mention here. Vin Mazzaro, Brooks Brown, Jose Contreas, Kyle Waldrop, Mike Zagurski, Roman Colon and several other pitchers were all brought in this offseason and are all in some capacity or another competing for time in the major leagues. All of them are essentially just standard depth relievers. If any of them should see any significant time in the majors this season my expectations would be probably around something like what Chad Qualls managed to do for the Pirates last season. In other words a whole lot of nothing.

2013 Expectations: Bullpen Part 1

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Due to the nature of the job the bullpen arms perform I am not going to bother predicting exact numbers for each player but instead focus on a more general idea of what my expectation is for each player. With a small sample of innings the numbers of bullpen pitchers can vary greatly without there being much variance in their actual performance. As a whole thought I’m expecting the Pirates bullpen to be roughly like the rest of the team which is basically around average. It’s tough to put a number on the bullpen but I could see them being worth roughly 1.5-2.0 WAR this season.

Jason Grilli

Grill enters the 2013 season as the Pirates closer which is a role he has yet to fill in his professional career. Last season and even in 2011 Grill was outstanding first in middle relief and then in set up duty for the Pirates. His strike out rate last season was amongst the best in the majors and for quite a stretch of time he seemed almost unhittable. Still truth be told Grilli isn’t a spring chicken and the drop off for baseball players can be quick and when coupled with the violate nature of relief pitchers it is certainly possible Grilli could struggle. My expectation is though that he’ll handle the closer role adequately and be an average closer for the Pirates. Grilli will likely regress from his strong 2012 but he should still have a solid 2013.

Mark Melancon

Melancon was the key piece of the Joel Hanrahan deal and is actually fairly similar to the Hanrahan the Pirates originally acquired. He is coming off a terrible 2012 but that is largely due to a few poor innings at the beginning of the season. Melancon is currently the favorite to take over the set up role and I think he can do quite well in that role. He is familiar with the NL Central and was actually rather successful in it back in 2011 when he was part of the Houston Astros. Melancon doesn’t strike a lot of batters about but his rate isn’t extremely low either and paired with his high ground ball rate he has the makings of a very solid bullpen arm. Melancon is very likely to rebound from his poor 2012 season and I could even see him getting a few save opportunities this season.

Tony Watson

Watson is the Pirates most experienced and at this point best left handed relief option. Make no mistake he isn’t a dominating pitcher but he has shown a nice ability to come in and pitch out of tight spots the last couple years and that is something that can’t be overlooked. I think the Watson we have seen the last year and a half or so is essentially what Watson is. He is a solid left handed middle reliever who should perform well during the season. My expectation is more of the same.

Jared Hughes

Hughes saw a rather alarming drop in his strike out rate last year but it was at least coupled with a lower walk rate. I have trouble believing his strike out rate won’t at least recover some in 2013 and although I’m hopeful it won’t I imagine his walk rate will also increase. Hughes is never going to be one to strike many batters out though so as long as he shows a slight improvement in his strike out rate his ground ball rate should be enough to keep him effective in 2013. The Pirates may let Hughes compete with Melancon early on for the set up role but I think he is best suited for a middle relief job where he can be called on to try and induce a groundball when one is needed. Hughes is another one like Watson who I think what we have seen is what we are going to get. I’m expecting some variation with his strike out and walk rates but I imagine his overall numbers will stay about the same.

2013 Rule V Draft

I know this is incredibly early but with news being slow this time of year I thought I would fast forward to December and take a look at the players the Pirates will have to decide to either add to the 40 man roster or expose to the Rule V draft. For the sake of simplicity I have opted to focus only on players who will be eligible for the Rule V draft for the first time in 2013. I am sure there will be others who were previously eligible who may wind up factoring into the Pirates or another team’s plans but there are too many to consider at this early point. I have divided the players into five categories and written a little bit about the players, why I think there is a chance they might be selected and how I think the Pirates will proceed with them in 2013. There are of course other first time eligible players and I make mention of that later one but to me they are notable in this discussion. Once again it is way too early to even begin thinking about this kind of stuff but hey news is slow this time of year so why not.

Locks To Be Added: Gregory Polanco

It takes a lot to look like a definite lock to be added to the 40 man roster nearly a year out from your Rule 5 eligibility so naturally there are very few players who fit this description. The Pirates have one and only one such player in Gregory Polanco. He is the Pirates number 1 or 1a hitting prospect and should start the season at A+. Usually when evaluating whether to protect prospects or not teams would like to see what the player is capable of doing at least against AA competition but in Polanco’s case that isn’t really much of a concern as he will be protected in almost any set of circumstances. I expect Polanco will get pushed to AA at some point this season but it will be based on merit not just taking a look at a guy. Polanco has a huge upside as a fast solid defensive center fielder with plus power so the Pirates would be crazy not to protect him.

Next In Line: Brandon Cumpton, Matt Curry, Gift Ngoepe, Adalberto Santos

The four players listed in this group all look like fairly safe bets to become solid major league contributors. Now that doesn’t mean star or even starter but any of these four it would appear could hold down a 25 man roster spot next season and produce at least some value and for that reason each one would be at risk of getting selected and is therefore a candidate to be added. Cumpton, Curry and Santos are all candidates to start in AAA but I would say Curry is the only lock to do so. Ngoepe appears likely to start in AA but could be held back in A+. The Pirates will take a long look at each of these players and decide whether to protect them or not at the end of the season. None of these players has the ceiling of a star but all could be quality depth for the Pirates next season. Cumpton looks like a possible 5th starter or middle reliever. Curry appears to have the upside of a Casey Kotchman type first baseman meaning one who can hit decently but not for a lot of power; most players of this type quickly fizzle out though. Ngoepe has a great glove but will need his bat to develop some in order to become a starting major league option but even if it doesn’t he might be able to find a role as a defensive middle infielder off the bench. Santos is quite simply a professional hitter but one who doesn’t have a true position. Santos has hit at every level but has shown very little power and is not really good defensively anywhere. His ability to hit though and his experience at 2B and in the OF could make him a decent bench bat though.

Possible Relievers: Casey Sadler, Zach Thornton, Jason Townsend, Tyler Waldron

Every year it seems the Pirates protect one pitcher from the Rule V draft who is a bit of a head scratcher. Some times that is a player who was previously eligible and other times it is a first time eligible player. There are too many previous eligible candidates to discuss but of the first time eligible ones the above four currently appear to me to be the most likely to be added to the 40 man roster at the end of the season. I won’t say too much about each of these players individually but they all fit the typical mold of being right handed pitchers who throw in the mid 90s and to date haven’t posted the numbers (especially strike out numbers) that one would like to see from them. Although to be fair Thornton did have a a good strike out rate last season but he was a little old for the level he did it at. All four of these pitchers are likely to start the season in AA and with the exception of Sadler they will all likely be pitching from relief. Sadler is by far the most polished of the group and it could be argued he belongs with the next in line class but unlike the four I listed I don’t think he could necessarily stick for an entire season. If any of these four make an impression with the Pirates and keep in mind that isn’t necessarily only statistics I could see them being protected.

Projects: Zack Dodson, Mel Rojas, Zach Von Rosenberg

At the time these players were drafted all of them were considered to have high ceilings but to date none of them have progressed much and 2013 will serve as a defining year for them. The ceilings these players once were to said to had are still there and outside of Polanco these 3 probably have the most talent of the bunch (with possibly one exception below). Currently I have all 3 projected to start the season at A+ but Rojas could be pushed to AA and Dodson could be held back in A ball once his suspension ends. The players who do wind up starting in A+ I imagine will be aggressively pushed once and if they show any signs of progress. Before the Pirates opt to put any of these players on the 40 man roster I imagine they will want to see them against some AA competition. At this point little should be expected of any of these players but each of them has one last chance to show just a glimmer of that upside the Pirates dreamt about when drafting them.

Other Notables: Stetson Allie, Kelson Brown, Dan Grovatt, Justin Howard, Drew Maggi

There are a lot of other players eligible but essentially I see little to no chance of them being added to the roster or selected. That is nearly a year away though so a lot can and probably will change. Of the remaining players the ones above are the names I find the most interesting. With the exception of Allie who I will get to later all of the players have posted solid minor league numbers and will be playing most likely in AA this upcoming season. A good showing in AA could put them on the radar as a possible Rule V selection but right now they all seem like long shots. The other players not listed are players who have largely not developed past A ball yet and while they may have a ton of talent they are too raw to even be considered in this discussion. The one name on my notable list that doesn’t quite fit with the others is Stetson Allie. In his current states and practically any state he’ll be in by the end of the 2013 season Allie is no threat to be selected and obviously will not be protected. Quite a fall from grace for Allie as headed into last season he had the look of one of the Pirates better prospects but now that he failed at pitching and transitioned back to hitting he appears to be not much more than an organizational player. Certainly he has talent but it appears his time to harness and develop that talent has almost ran out.

Neal Huntington’s Trade Record

Presented without commentary below are the 61 trades I have recorded that Neal Huntington has made during his tenure as the Pirates GM. I’m not going to give an opinion on them but rather I figured I’d share my records, see if there is anything I missed that someone wants to share with me and let everyone else form their own opinions. A few notes first though. Some of these deals in addition to the players listed also included cash but I have not bothered to list cash given or received by the Pirates in any deal. The term NA appears pretty frequently and it essentially means Not Available or Not Announced. Basically that half of the trade is unknown to me and in most cases it was likely just a small amount of cash. The trades are roughly ordered according to the order they were made but may not be exact as I only use the month and the year to keep track of them. Apologies for the format not looking the best but its the best I could do.

Salomon Torres for Marino Salas, Kevin Roberts
Todd Redmond for Tyler Yates
NA for Jason Michaels
NA for Evan Meek
Kyle Pearson for Denny Bautista
Jason Bay for Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris,   Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen
Craig Wilson for NA
Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte for Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Ross   Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutchen
Jose Bautista for Robinson Diaz
Ronnie Paulino for Jason Jaramillo
NA for Shawn Nottingham
Erik Krebs for Delwyn Young
Romulo Sanchez for Eric Hacker
Eric Hinske for Eric Fryer, Casey Erickson
Nate McLouth for Jeff Locke, Gorkys Hernandez,   Charlie Morton
Nyjer Morgan, Sean Burnett for Lastings Milledge, Joel Hanrahan
Adam LaRoche for Argenis Diaz, Hunter Strickland
Freddy Sanchez for Tim Alderson
Tom Gorzelanny, John Grabow for Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, Josh   Harrison
Jack Wilson, Ian Snell for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno,   Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic
Joel Collins for NA
Jesse Chavez for Akinori Iwamura
Brian Bixler for Jesus Brito
Virgil Vasquez for NA
Ronald Uviedo for Dana Eveland
Luke Carlin for Adam Davis
Javier Lopez for John Bowker, Joe Martinez
NA for Sean Gallagher
NA for Mitch Jones
Bobby Crosby, Ryan Church, DJ Carrasco for Chris Snyder, Pedro Ciriaco
Octavio Dotel for James McDonald, Andrew Lambo
Zach Duke for Cesar Valdez
Jim Negrych for Carlos Paulino
Josh Fields for NA
NA for Josh Rodriguez
NA for Michael McKenry
NA for Ryan Ludwick
Aaron Baker for Derek Lee
Tim Wood for NA
Matt Diaz for Eliecer Cardenas
Brooks Pounders, Diego Goris for Yamaico Navarro
Diego Moreno, Exicardo Cayones for AJ Burnett
Ryota Igarashi for NA
Brian Tallet for NA
NA for Drew Sutton
Drew Sutton for NA
NA for Jeff Larish
Kris Watts for NA
Shairon Martis for NA
Robbie Grossman, Rudy Owens, Colton Cain for Wandy Rodriguez
Brad Lincoln for Travis Snider
Gorkys Hernandez, Comp Pick for Gaby Sanchez, Kyle Kaminska
Casey McGehee for Chad Qualls
Daniel Cabrera for NA
Kyle Kaminska for Zach Stewart
Luis Rico, Luis Santos for Clint Robinson, Vin Mazzaro
Chris Resop for Zach Thorton
Yamaico Navarro for Jhonadeli Medina
Ramon Cabrera for Andrew Oliver
Joel Hanrahan, Brock Holt for Mark Melancon, Jerry Sands,   Stolmy Pimetel, Ivan De Jesus
Quincy Latimore for Jeanmar Gomez

2013 Expectations: Back Of The Rotation

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Jeff Karstens

After a strange offseason which saw Karstens non-tendered and then resigned I am forced to eat some crow and give some credit to the Pirates front office for correctly analyzing the market for Jeff Karstens. I am glad to have Karstens back and I hope the Pirates use him in the role I feel he is best suited for which is as a utility pitcher, by that I mean he can pitch in any situation, starting, long relief or end of game. I expect that Karstens will be part of the Pirates rotation to start the season but assuming everyone is healthy when Liriano returns I see Karstens moving to the bullpen. If Karstens ends up making about 10 starts this season and pitching a few innings out of the bullpen I think that should suit his skill set just perfectly. Karstens isn’t a great player but he is a solid contributor who should give the Pirates 80-100 solid innings this season. I see Karstens being worth right around 1.0 WAR on the season and posting numbers around a 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.

Jeff Locke

I have Locke penciled into the starting rotation to begin the 2013 season. In my mind he has nothing left to prove at AAA and is deserving of a chance to show whether or not he has what it takes to make it as a major league starting pitcher. I believe Locke will have a very solid season for the Pirates but I doubt he makes a whole season worth of starts in the majors. The Pirates have some other pitchers they will surely want to get a look at and Locke would seem the easiest to replace in the rotation. Still I can see Locke getting a chance to impress the Pirates with about 15-20 starts which would represent a good half season of work. If he does well he will probably be a front runner for the back end of the 2014 rotation and if not he very well might be released. This is a big year for Locke and I expect he’ll hold his own. Something in the area of a 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 feels about right for Locke in 2013. All and all I have him pegged for about 18 starts and roughly 0.8 WAR.

Kyle McPherson

McPherson is Locke biggest competition for the last spot in the Pirates rotation and I think he has the higher upside of the two but at the same time he also only has 3 career starts at the AAA level which means he probably still could use a little more polish. I don’t expect McPherson to make the team out of Spring Training but I expect he’ll make quite a handful of starts and get a chance to leave an impression and claim a rotation spot for 2014. After spending a little time in AAA this season I expect he’ll do rather well after being called up. Like with all young inexperienced pitchers it is difficult to get a true read on what statistics to expect but I’m thinking something like a 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 feels about right. I think McPherson will wind up with roughly 10-12 starts and be worth just a little less than 1.0 WAR.

Jonathan Sanchez

Originally I thought Sanchez had a good chance to win the job as the second lefty out of the bullpen but as things progress I see that as less and less likely and I now expect him to start the year off in the AAA rotation essentially flipping roles with Justin Wilson. Sanchez certainly has a high upside but his lack of control severely hampers that upside. I actually don’t see Sanchez making more than 2-3 starts for the Pirates this season and I imagine any chances he’ll get he will show flashes of brilliance but also not have enough control to be anything more than mediocre. Sanchez is definitely a competitor for a rotation spot this season but I just can’t see him having much impact on the Pirates rotation in 2013.

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