Archive for the ‘ Position Previews ’ Category

2013 Expectations: The Pittsburgh Pirates

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Over the course of the last two seasons the Pittsburgh Pirates have come a long way. From losing 100+ games in 2010 to flirting with a playoff spot deep into August in 2012. From looking like a franchise void of any direction to having a bright future just on the horizon. The future looks better than now than it did just two short years ago but right now isn’t the time to worry about that. This is the time of year we ask ourselves not how future Pirates teams may look or perform but rather about how this year’s version of the team will look and perform. The Pirates have a large group of players returning and have added a handful of players they hope will be able to compliment the returning group well. In addition to the players added this offseason the Pirates will be counting on full seasons of players added to the roster last year and improved performances by last year’s regulars to improve the overall performance of the team.

The group of players the Pirates will be sending out on to the field Monday is most people’s opinions the most talented group the Pirates have fielding in quite a few years. Still there is no mistaking this group for a complete team which should be able to easily handle all the obstacles thrown at them and glide into the playoffs. The Pirates are a work in progress and as such the roster will be yet again in a constant state of flux during the 2013 season. Just what the expectations are for this team is difficult to pin down. As an improved group over the 2012 version one would assume an improved record should be in the forthcoming but the 2012 group was probably a little lucky in some regards meaning they actually finished ahead of where they should have. Still one gets the sense that if improvement in terms of record is not achieved some major changes in terms of coaching staff and front office will likely be coming either during this season or after the year.

What does this Pirates team have to do to be a success? Does this group have to make the playoffs? Just make a serious run? Just finish above .500? Just show improvements in overall performance regardless of the record? That is really up tom personal opinion but in my mind it is the last one. The group the Pirates have assembled isn’t a real contender and for that reason as long as they don’t post an awful record whatever their record winds up being is less important than how they go about achieving that record. If the core of the team takes a step forward and veterans like Burnett, Martin and Barmes struggle which causes the team record to be less than ideal I can live with that but if it happens the other way around things will be a little less pretty. A disclaimer here though in terms of whether there will be changes I don’t think how the Pirates go about achieving a substandard record will matter; if they post one changes will almost certainly be coming.

All of this still leaves me with the question of what am I expecting from this team this season. Above all else I am expecting growth. I’m expecting the team to find some young players to help compliment McCutchen. This would likely be players from the Alvarez, Marte, Snider and Tabata group. I’m expecting some youth to lay claim to rotation spots next season. This would be players from the Cole, McPherson, Locke and Irwin group. The Pirates have to be at a point at the end of this season in which they know what they have with this group. It is vital so they know how to proceed next offseason. Finding which players can truly help this team in 2014 and beyond is in my mind the most important thing that come out of 2013 however one can not completely ignore the overall performance. I still expect this team to play well.

When you slice right through it the talent on this team appears to have the talent of roughly a slightly below average team meaning somewhere in the neighborhood of 78 wins. However the range of possible outcomes for this team is huge. If things break relatively wrong for this team it could quite possibly lose 95 games but if things break relatively right for this team I could see it posting 90 wins. Either extreme though seems rather unlikely. Truth be told as it nearly always does the actual result will lie somewhere in the middle. This Pirates team will likely win somewhere between 75-85 games making them for all intents and purposes an average team. As for my actual prediction this year feels different but I have never actually predicted the Pirates to finish the season with a winning record. I don’t like this team enough to break that trend but on the other hand there is a different feel about it so I have do something different. It pains me to do this as it is the ultimate cop-out by my prediction for the record of the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates is: 81-81

Analyzing the 25 Man Roster

The Pirates essentially finalized their 25 man roster earlier today. Technically speaking there are still a few additional players in camp but all of them are expected to begin the season on the DL. Overall the roster is constructed in a very expected manner and while it is not how I would have went about doing it most of the decisions are at least somewhat understandable. There are always going to be people who complain about the fringes of the 25 man roster but at the end of the day those fringes really do not matter much, it is the core of the team and the overall depth (bench, bullpen and minor leagues) that will determine the fate of a team. The 5th starter, the 5th bench spot and the 7th reliever are not really positions that will dramatically alter the course of a team so the overreaction to the Pirates decisions on those roster spots is likely overblown. With all that in mind let’s take a look at how the Pirates roster looks headed into Opening Day.

C: Russell Martin

1B: Garrett Jones

2B: Neil Walker

3B: Pedro Alvarez

SS: Clint Barmes

LF: Starling Marte

CF: Andrew McCutchen

RF: Travis Snider

BN: Michael McKenry, Gaby Sanchez, Jose Tabata, John McDonald, Josh Harrison

SP: AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jonathan Sanchez, Jeff Locke

RP: Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Justin Wilson, Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez

In reality the only players I would remove from the roster if I was in charge of its construction would be McDonald, Harrison (eventually Inge) and Gomez. In their place I would prefer to see Mercer, De Jesus and Morris. The other change I would like to see made is swapping Wilson and J Sanchez. Wilson is younger and in my opinion more likely to be able to contribute to the rotation for a few starts while Sanchez at this point is probably best suited trying to turn his career around as a lefty reliever. Even these changes though are for the most part temporary. When Liriano comes back I would most likely opt to bump Wilson from the rotation, when Karstens comes back I would most likely opt to bump Morris from the bullpen and I can even understand the argument for wanting McDonald over De Jesus. I don’t get Harrison or Inge over Mercer though. I know Mercer can’t play the outfield while the other sort of kind of can but the Pirates have enough options where they shouldn’t be considering playing infielders in the outfield anyway. The other advantage Inge has is supposedly power but people seem to forget Mercer has a little pop in his bat as well, it was just 2011 when he lead the Pirates minor leagues in home runs. Still arguments over the last bench spot are basically trivial and irrelevant. I don’t get why the Pirates need two (or even one) veteran middle infielders on the bench who can’t hit but in reality the difference between them and the other options is most likely negligible.

With that rather long disclaimer out-of-the-way I figured now was as good as time as any to take a look at the players the Pirates have opted to bring north.

Starting Infield

The starting infield is what we expected it to be all along. Russell Martin behind the dish will be counted on to provide solid defense and hopefully will produce somewhere in the vicinity of league average offense from the catcher position. The Pirates likely overpaid for him but if his superior pitch framing skills are actually real and not just a product of catching for guys like C.C. Sabathia then there is a chance he lives up the contract or maybe even provides some surplus value. I’m not expecting much in terms of offense from him but if he can be non horrible and provide the Pirates with an OPS around .700 I would take it.

Garrett Jones likely won’t be playing full-time at first base but assuming the Pirates actually stick to regularly platooning him this season he should get about 70% of the starts. Jones is here for essentially one purpose, to provide the Pirates with relatively cheap power. The rest of Jones’ game is fairly unremarkable from his defense to his baserunning but he is a fair hitter with plus power. That doesn’t make him a super valuable piece but it makes him an asset in the middle of the order. On the hot corner will reside Pedro Alvarez. Like Jones, Alvarez could probably benefit by sitting against some left handers but hopefully the Pirates give him a chance to prove his worth against them. Also like Jones, Alvarez is here to provide the Pirates with some power but unlike Jones, Alvarez has enough power potential where he could develop into an extremely valuable piece. Alvarez is going to strike out too much and not play the best defense at third but if he can show a little more plate discipline, draw a few more walks and continue blasting home runs he is going to have a lot of value.

Up the middle Neil Walker figures to get nearly every start at 2nd base and assuming Inge takes Harrison spot he better be starting everyday as the Pirates really won’t have a viable alternative on the 25 man roster. He had some back problems near the end of last season which bares watching but in reality any injury to him would really hurt the Pirates. It is unclear whether Hurdle plans to use him near the top of the order or more towards the bottom but given the fact he is one of the few Pirates players with a decent knack for getting on base placing him near the top (or eve at the top) of the order would probably be the wisest decision. Up the middle with Walker is Clint Barmes. Barmes’s value comes almost entirely from his ability to field the shortstop position very well but even so he is going to have to improve upon last year’s numbers to be of much use to the Pirates. Over the last 4 months of 2012 Barmes posted an OPS of around .650 and if he is able to do that for an entire season he won’t be the most glamorous shortstop but he will give the Pirates value.

Starting Outfield

The starting outfield is pretty much what we expected all along. There was a quasi competition for the corner spots but for the most part those were basically just made up as it was rather clear who should be the starters. In center field the Pirates will once again have their superstar Andrew McCutchen. There really isn’t a whole lot to say about him. He is likely one of the best 10 players in the game today and in order for the Pirates to have any chance of competing he will need to perform at a MVP caliber level. McCutchen did have a few flaws last year though and hopefully this season he will improve upon them. Last season he struggled stealing bases and was a little on the weak side defensively. Considering the rest of his game these are minor points of course but shoring them up would only make him more valuable.

In the corners the Pirates will use Starling Marte and Travis Snider. I expect to see both of them rested, especially Snider, on a fairly consistent basis but they will both get a long chance to prove themselves. Marte has plus speed and is a great defender so even if he struggles with the bat this season he is likely to still provide the Pirates with value. By no means is Marte’s bat weak though as he has the potential to possibly be the Pirates second best hitter this season behind only McCutchen. Marte is likely going to be forced into the leadoff spot a role he isn’t really suited for since he has some strike out issues but if he can maintain a high average and show any improvement in plate discipline he should be serviceable there. In the other corner will be Snider. He doesn’t have the speed or defense of Marte so he is going to have to hit to create value. People tend to think him hitting is less likely than Marte hitting well but in reality I think its a pretty even race. Snider has shown flashes in the past and comes with more power potential than Marte. The Pirates in order to have a shot at competing probably need one of these two to break out and become a true plus player and the other one will have to at least hold his own and be an average starter.

Bench

As I have previously stated the construction of the bottom of the bench really doesn’t matter a whole lot but the players near the top of the bench will likely get a lot of playing time so they will matter a good deal. The top player on the bench is likely Gaby Sanchez and he is expected to pick up the 30% or so of the starts that Garrett Jones doesn’t get at 1st base. Ideally Sanchez would bounce back to his 2010-11 form but that doesn’t really seem likely. In reality all the Pirates need him to be is a good bat against LHP and a good PH option off the bench two roles I think he’ll have no problem handling. Jose Tabata could potentially wind up in a similar situation to Sanchez only in right field. It is possible he winds up platooning with Snider and if that is the case he too will have to hit very well against left handed pitching. Tabata has the upside for more though. At this point he isn’t likely to develop into your traditional starting corner outfielder but he has very good plate discipline and that alone has the potential to make him a valuable asset atop the order. His speed although it has been questioned is still above average and his defense is probably around average as well. Tabata has the makings of an OBP first starting corner outfielder or a solid 4th outfielder. He is likely to be the second most important bench player.

The third most important bench spot and the last I see with much value will go to Michael McKenry. As the backup catcher he is likely to get at least 60 starts this season and will need to continue hitting as well as he did last season to provide value in those starts. His defense is decent but often overrated by Pirates fans but his bat can make him a solid backup catcher. The last two spots are currently slated to go to Harrison and McDonald but Inge will likely eventually assume Harrison’s role. In my mind the most important of these spots is the Harrison/Inge spot. This is supposedly the offensive first infield bench spot so whoever holds it down is going to have to actually you know hit at a respectable level. McDonald will serve as Barmes backup and though he is probably a touch worse both offensively and defensively his presence in the lineup for a day here or there shouldn’t really cause a noticeable difference.

Starting Rotation

Right now the Pirates rotation is a bit of mess. At the top of it the Pirates have probably one of the best one-two punches they have had in a while in AJ Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez. Neither one is a true ace but both seem like fairly safe bets to put up solid numbers this season. At 36 and 34 years old respectively there is of course the chance that either Burnett or Rodriguez has reached the end of their rope as pitchers but with how both of them pitched last year it seems likely they probably have another year or two of value left in them at least. Behind them is James McDonald who si the ultimate wildcard for the Pirates. If there is a true ace currently in the Pirates rotation it is James McDonald. McDonald showed us in the first half of the season last year that he has the talent to be a number one starting pitcher but he showed us in the second half of the year that he isn’t ready to be that yet and possibly never will be. What James McDonald the Pirates get this year, potential ace, borderline #5 starter or somewhere in between will probably be one of the biggest factors in how the Pirates season winds up.

Rounding out the rotation are a pitcher who amazingly actually has a wider range of possible outcomes than McDonald and a pitcher who looks like a fair bet to be a solid a back end guy but who has yet to prove it at the major league level. Jonathan Sanchez is another wildcard in the Pirates rotation but he is even less likely to pay off than McDonald. If Sanchez can keep his control problems at a minimum he will have an excellent chance of being a solid middle of the rotation starter for the Pirates but if he can’t he will most definitely be a total disaster. The Pirates really can’t (or at least shouldn’t) be expecting much from him. If Sanchez can give the Pirates 3 or 4 non-horrible starts in the month of April without completely exploding then it should be considered a success. The other pitcher Locke is a different story. Locke pitched exceptionally well in AAA last season but in his short stint in the majors was the victim of a very unlucky high home run rate. Assuming the high home rate drops this season which it will almost assuredly do I’m fairly confident Locke can become a solid #4 starter for the Pirates and mange to keep them in almost every game. He isn’t the flashiest pitcher but his performance in AAA has earned him this shot.

Bullpen

The back of the bullpen will consist of Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and Jared Hughes. These four actually make for a fairly solid quartet of arms. Grilli has been successful in a set up and middle relief role the last two seasons and will inherit the closer role this year. Melancon struggled last year in April and was sent down to the minors but when he returned to the majors he pitched pretty well The two of them , Grilli and Melancon, will likely be the Pirates 8th and 9th inning duo. By no means is this the best back end duo in the league but the tandem should be able to close out most leads that are handed over to them. Watson and Hughes were rather successful last season in their middle relief roles and will be counted on this season in later inning situations. Hughes will probably inherit the 7th inning role and Watson will continue being the top left handed releiver in the bullpen. The success of these two last year makes it fairly likely the adjustment should be relatively smooth.

At the front of the bullpen trying to bridge the gap to the back 4 guys will be Justin Wilson, Chris Leroux and Jeanmar Gomez. All 3 pitchers are capable of throwing multiple innings and all will likely be called upon to do so throughout the year. Wilson provides the Pirates with a second lefty and one who is more of a strike out pitcher. Leroux and Gomez will likely pick up most of the long relief duties. Both are out of options and one of them is likely to be released once pitchers began to get healthy so it will be sort of an extended competition for the duo. Leroux appears to have the more upside but Gomez has more major league experience. Leroux and Gomez are both fairly replaceable relievers so they will have to pitch well this season to remain with the team.

2013 Expectations: Front Office

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Considering the fact that my mood with the front office is less than good with the news they are planning on adding Inge to the roster I am going to keep this piece fairly short and try to stay on point.

All in all the current Pirates front office has done a fair job assembling the 2013 Pirates team which currently looks like the most talented group the Pirates have had in recent seasons. Is it enough? No but it is progress. I believe there is a strong possibility the Pirates will clean house after this season both at the manager and front office ranks. The group has helped the Pirates take some nice big strides forward but at this point I don’t believe this group has what it takes to get the team over the hump (and I’m not talking .500 I believe regardless of the front office the streak will end this year or next). The rotation the Pirates are entering the 2013 season with is weak there is no doubt about that and failure to have better alternatives to what is a very injury prone rotation certainly falls at the feet of the front office. There was some depth there but it has been used up. Ideally a team wouldn’t have to enter the season with Jonathan Sanchez in the rotation but in reality an extended 2-3 start tryout likely isn’t going to cost the Pirates much of anything this season. If he performs well great, if not he will (or at least should) be replaced in short order. The construction of the bench is another manner but if the bench players end up having to play significant roles this season things have gone fairly bad.

Neal Huntington and his front office have overseen some very perplexing and irritating strategies during their tenure but in the end their impact on the playing field is probably very minimal. The difference between starting with Sanchez instead of say McPherson in the rotation for 2-3 April starts won’t really have a huge impact on this season nor will Inge being on the roster over a player like Mercer. These moves are annoying and waste a little bit of the precious resources the Pirates have but at the end of the day moves like this do not affect the fate of the season. What does have a substantial impact on how the 2013 season will progress are the recent major additions to the team. The 2013 Pirates and there by Huntington’s fate will be largely determined by the success or failure of Wandy Rodriguez, Fransisco Liriano, Russell Martin, Travis Snider and Gaby Sanchez. Those 5 players have all been added to the Pirates roster within the last 8 months or so and will be playing their first full season with the Pirates. All 5 will be counted on to have significant roles with the Pirates. It is this group that can help Huntington keep his job for at least one more season.

My expectation for Huntington is to see that particular group of 5 players along with his other impactful additions, Clint Barmes, Jose Tabata, Jeff Locke, AJ Burnett, James McDonald, Jason Grill, etc take a major step up as a group. Of course some will fail but if the Pirates have more successes than failures and a lot of big successes and only small failures the 2013 Pirates could potentially be really good. This group of players has the talent to do so and if they do then Huntington and his staff deserves all the credit in the world but should they not step up Huntington and his staff will have rightfully earned themselves a spot in the unemployment line. This is a do or die year for Huntington his major league acquisitions and his draft classes need to show significant improvement or else.

2013 Expectations: Coaches

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Manager Clint Hurdle

Hurdle is entering his 3rd season as manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Under his leadership the Pirates have seen their records improve each of the last two seasons. The players seem to play for him and to me that is the largest part of being a successful manager. On the not so bright side Hurdle has some issues with in-game management that are often talked about on the blog-o-sphere. His love of bunting and inability to see young utility infielders on his bench being my two chief complaints. There are others of course such as his timing of things such as hit and runs and steal attempts. Overall I see him as an effective manager with a lot of room to improve. It isn’t always easy to set expectations for a coach but I think it’s fairly obvious the task at hand for Hurdle he needs to lead the Pirates towards another improved season or likely be fired. The Pirates did remove his lame duck status this season but that’s more of a formality than anything. If the 2013 Pirates fail to improve there will undoubtedly be wide-spread changes in the coaching staff starting with Hurdle. Now as far as what I would like to see him do in terms of actual performance there is really only one thing: Use the Roster He Has More Efficiently. Last season the Pirates offense believe it or not was heavily dependent on the long ball and Hurdle’s insistence to bunt took away opportunities for one. In addition to that Hurdle seems to have a reluctance to use younger players such as Pedro Ciriaco, Jordy Mercer, Justin Wilson and Kyle McPherson. He needs to start rolling the dice with players like that be it in bench roles, bullpen roles or something more impactful. I am not expecting to see any of that though as Hurdle is what he is and will continue to push veterans into roles the younger players are at least if not better prepared for.

Hitting Coach Jay Bell

The task in front of Bell is relatively simple. Improve team plate discipline. The Pirates as a team walked too few times last year and struck out far too many times. In his first year as Pirates hitting coach Bell is tasked with fixing those issues and making the Pirates a more discipline team. It isn’t going to be an easy task but that is the job Bell signed up for. In addition to closely watching those numbers it is my expectation that at least one Pirates player hits well above expectations. What does that mean? That means Snider or Marte or Sanchez or … someone taking that next step and playing better than what we all expect. I’ll say it again these are not necessarily fair things to task Jay Bell with it but it is the job he has taken on so I wish him luck and will hope to see some results.

Pitching Coach Ray Searage

Searage has been a breath of fresh air for the Pirates coaching staff. He has done an outstanding job with the arms the front office has given him but he needs to show he can keep them going for an entire season. McDonald and Liriano will be the two pitchers who largely define the success or failure of the 2013 season for Searage. Neither one has to pitch like an ace all season but both of them need to be quality starting pitchers for the entire 2013 season. There can be no falling off a cliff and wondering what happened. Searage has been great but he needs his staff to put together a consistent good solid year or else he too will be out the door. Also something has to be done to improve the pitchers’ ability to hold runners and that will ultimately lie at the feet of Searage.

1st Base Coach Rick Sofield

I wasn’t originally going to highlight any of the other minor coaches by them self but Sofield is an important one. The first base coach is typically given the task of coaching the running game and while the overall base running from the Pirates last year actually wasn’t too bad their stealing was absolutely terrible. Sofield will be spending his first year on the Pirates staff and has the tall task of making the Pirates a legitimate threat on the bases. The Pirates have some speed in Marte, McCutchen and Tabata they could be utilizing which in return would minimize the number of time Hurdle felt the need to bunt but for some reason or another they can’t seem to do it real well. It will be Sofield’s job to help the Pirates as a whole and specifically the premier base stealers improve upon their current abilities.

The Rest

The rest of the coaching staff includes Nick Leyva (3rd base coach), Jeff Bannister (Bench Coach), Euclides Rojas (Bullpen Coach), Jeff Branson (Coach), Dave Jauss (Coach) and Brendon Huttman (Stregnth and Conditioning Coach). The role of these coaches are a little less clear in the day-to-day grind which is baseball but every one of them is on the hot seat should the Pirates performance not improve. Leyva’s most obvious duty is deciding whether to send runners home but he also oversees the infield defense (Sofield oversees the outfield defense). Bannister as a bench coach is largely there to assist the manager with whatever tasks he chooses. Rojas is there to answer the bullpen phone (his most visible job) but his main job is assisting the pitching coach likewise the main job of Jeff Branson will be assisting Jay Bell with his duties as hitting coach. Jauss’s role is a little more ambiguous as he has been described as the team’s “eye in the sky”. Essentially he will offer his advice on various matters. Finally Brendon Huttman is obviously there to try to keep the players as healthy and fit as possible. These coaches will be judged based upon whatever duties they are assigned to oversee.

2013 Expectations: Low Level Prospects

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Most of the intriguing prospects that play in the lower levels in a given year are drafted in that year’s draft but of course there are a few holdovers. I’m expecting the Pirates to send the most interesting of the possible holdover lot (Tyler Glasnow, Waytt Mathisen, Jin-De Jhang, Dilson Herrera, Max Moroff and Eric Wood) to A ball. That still leaves some interesting talent and that is what I will discuss here. However at these levels it is difficult to have actual expectations so instead I’ll just go over the interesting names to watch.

Hitters

The two most interesting names that I currently have projected to play in the lower levels are Harold Ramirez and Elvis Escobar. Ramirez and Escobar were the Pirates big international signings in 2011 and made the aggressive jump to the states. Ramirez was hampered by injuries but returned later in the year and held his own. Escobar started the year in center field and while his numbers were not eye popping they were fairly impressive for it being his first professional season and playing at a that high a level. Both of them should start the year in short season ball and while things will be taken slowly with them we will hopefully see signs of growth. The next most interesting duo is the DeLaCruz brothers (not actual brothers they just share the same last name). Julio and Michael were the Pirates two big international signings from last year’s class. Neither is a guarantee to start the year in the states but early reports suggest the Pirates are at least considering it. Julio is a third baseman while Michael is an outfielder. It is difficult to say there are any expectations on them but a solid debut like Escobar had last season would be a welcomed sight. Another interesting group are the players moving up from the DSL. Daniel Arribas, Carlos Ozuna, Ulises Montilla, Maximo Rivera and Enyel Vallejo are the players that appear likely to move up. Of the group Arribas and Rivera stand out to me. The Pirates have been slowly turning Arribas into a catcher as he split time at catcher, 1st and 3rd base the last two seasons. He struggled in 2011, his first professional season but fared really well last season. Rivera was one of the Pirates big international signings in 2009 and was said to have good power potential. He didn’t show much his first two professional seasons but broke out last year aand although he didn’t show much power he had a very solid season. Three other names I’ll be keeping an eye on are Stetson Allie, Kevin Ross and Luis Urena. Allie isn’t much of a prospect as a hitter but due to name recognition he garners attention. Ross was drafted in the 8th round of last year’s draft but signed late and didn’t play much. Urena is another outfielder in the Willy Garcia mold. This may sound a little odd but he is a potential 2014 breakout candidate. What I mean by that is that he showed enough positives in 2012 that with a good performance this season he could put himself in a position to really step up next year. None of these players really have expectations at this point but the hope is a couple of them step up and take on the look of real prospects.

Pitchers

No one single pitcher really stands out in the lower levels but there are two trios I am going to be watching closely. One trio is a group of 2011 high school draftees who have all played very sparingly to this point and in which no one has stood out from the rest. They are Jason Creasy, Jake Burnette and Colten Brewer. I give a slight advantage to brewer as the most intriguing of the bunch but they all have to make some sort of statement this year if they are to be taken as real prospects. The other trio is a mix of last year’s drafted pitchers who for some reason or another received little playing time. They are Jonathan Sandfort, John Kuchno and Hayden Hurst. Sandfort was the Pirates 3rd round pick last season but pitched only 15 innings in rookie ball. Hurst and Kuchno pitched 0 and 5 innings respectively last year and while they weren’t high draft picks they were two players the Pirates opted to go overslot for when the Appel signing fell through. Of the three I’m currently highest on Sandfort but to be honest that is largely because I don’t know much about the other two yet. There are also a couple interesting arms coming up from the DSL this season with the two most intriguing to me being Cesilio Pimentel and Mervin Del Rosario. Both players posted good lines in the DSL last season but struck out very few hitters. Pimentel did have a large strikeout rate in 2011 though.  Also in the lower levels is a semi-interesting group of relief prospects. The most interesting of the group to me is Bryton Trepagnier. Trepagnier saw his velocity increase last season and a rise in his strikeout rate. The Pirates have an interesting mix of prospects from the 2011 and 2012 drafts along with an assortment of international arms in the lower levels of the system. Some of these players are candidates to see time in A ball this year but for the most part they will be playing in rookie ball or short season ball and sharing the workload with the pitchers selected in this year’s draft. I don’t really see a breakout star in this group or even anyone I’m comfortable saying will have a solid season but there are a ton of interesting arms to keep an eye on so that increases the odds that someone here will emerge.

2013 Expectations: Mid Level Prospects

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Top Hitting Prospects

The top 5 hitting prospects in the Pirates system all are expected to begin to 2013 season in either A or A+ ball. Dilson Herrera should skip over short season ball and start the year in A ball and Josh Bell should join him there as he is expected to repeat the level. Herrera is a popular break out candidate for 2013 and certainly has the tools to do. He is coming off a very solid 2012 season in rookie ball in which he displayed a good all around offensive game. I’m expecting a very good season from Herrera and while I don’t think he will necessary break out I don’t expect him to do anything to hurt his status. Joining him in A ball will be Bell who missed most of last season with a knee injury. At this point it is difficult to know just what to expect from Bell but a good start is I wasn’t to see him healthy and hitting for power. I’m thinking his overall line might not sparkle being essentially his first professional season but if those two things are present it should be a decent year for Bell. At the A+ level the Pirates will have the two top hitting prospects in Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco and also last year’s supplemental pick Barrett Barnes. Barnes had a very solid debut in A- last season and will be looking to continue it at a much more age appropriate level. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him struggle with the jump but we shall see. Hanson broke out last season and has a tremendous bat for a middle infielder but his defensive game needs a lot of work if he is to remain at shortstop. The Pirates will likely have him focus on improving defensively which I think might end up hurting his overall offensive numbers this season in particular his power. Going step for step with Hanson last season in A ball was Gregory Polanco. Polanco’s season last year was just as impressive as Hanson’s and in fact I think it was slightly better. Polanco will start the season in A+ but if he is successful I expect the Pirates to give him a mid season promotion to AA. My instinct tells me this will be another big year for Polanco so that isn what I am expecting.

Top Pitching Prospects

The Pirates middle levels aren’t just chalked full of hitting prospects as there are 4 top pitching prospects also expected to play at one of the A levels this season. The only one expected to pitch in A+ though is Nicholas Kingham. Kingham had a rough start to his 2012 campaign and finished the season with a poor ERA but he improved greatly as the year progress, finishing strong and posting solid peripherals. He probably doesn’t have the ace upside of the top pitching prospects at the A ball level but he is father along developmentally and looks like he could become a good middle of the rotation inning eater. I think Kingham will take a significant step forward this season. At the A ball level the Pirates are likely to have Luis Heredia and Clayton Holmes and may also have Tyler Glasnow pitching at the level. Heredia is the top prospect here as he put up excellent numbers in A- last season despite being younger than most of his competition. The Pirates will likely continue to proceed slowly with Heredia but I suspect we will continue to see good things from him and I expect him to start missing a few more bats this season. Along with Heredia in A- Clayton Holmes was putting up excellent numbers but unlike Heredia he comes with a couple warning signs. One his delivery is very awkward looking at two he struggled with control at times last season while not striking out many batters. I expect the jump to A level is going to be a big test for him and I think he’ll struggle. Glasnow pitched in rookie ball last year with just a taste of A- at the end of the year. He was dominate in rookie ball and did fairly well in short season ball as well. The Pirates may opt to keep him in short season but my expectation is they will hold him back in extended spring training and then give him a shot at A ball. I actually think he’ll do quite well at whichever level he pitches and I could see him shooting up some prospect lists.

Other Hitting Prospects

In addition to the top level hitters the Pirates have a good assortment of the next level of hitters ready to play in the middle levels. At the A+ level the talent is a little light but Jose Osuna is a very solid 1st base prospect and could be on the verge of a breakout. Lost in the hype surrounding Hanson and Polanco was Osuna’s very solid season in A ball. He didn’t put up the show stopping numbers but it was still a very good season. Osuna is limited defensively to 1st base so his bat is going to have to carry him but he has shown the power potential which suggests it just might. I’m not expecting a full breakout from Osuna but I think he’ll once again post a good line while going largely unnoticed in 2013. In A ball the talent is a little deeper with Wyatt Mathisen, Jin-De Jhang, Eric Wood, Max Moroff and Willy Garcia all having a chance to start there. Mathisen is the headliner of the group and is considered by some to be the Pirates 5th or 6th best hitting prospect. He is an athletic young catcher who is learning the position and has a good solid bat. Jhang split catching duties with Mathisen in rookie ball last season and had a very good season there. It is possible the Pirates choose to split the two up but I think they will both be promoted to A ball and will continue to split the catching duty. Wood and Moroff also played in rookie ball last season manning 3B and SS respectively. Wood had a surprising debut after being a relatively unknown 6th round selection and Moroff showed why the Pirates went overslot to sign him after the Appel signing fell through. Garcia played at A ball last season and wasn’t horrible but he was inconsistent which makes me believe the Pirates will start him back at the level. All the players in this group are candidates to break out and become top hitting prospects. The chances of all of them doing so are slim but I expect at least 1 or 2 of them will do so.

Other Pitching Prospects

The Pirates are lacking a little in the middle levels in the second tier of pitching prospects. Only three names Robby Rowland, Zach Von Rosenberg and Adrian Sampson really catch my eye. Rowland and Von Rosenberg are likely to begin the year in A+ ball. Rowland was acquired last offseason when the Diamondbacks traded him to the Pirates in exchange for the rights to Rule V selection Brett Lorin. Rowland was an underwhelming prospect but he put up a solid season in A ball last year to get on the map. He is one to watch although I think he is going to struggle in the jump to A+. Von Rosenberg is actually one of my under the radar breakout picks. He was drafted by the Pirates in the 6th round of the 2009 draft and he was the most high profile of the large lot of high school arms the Pirates went overslot for to sign. To date Von Rosenberg hasn’t been that impressive as he repeated A ball last year and while his numbers were decent they weren’t exactly what one would hope to see. The Pirates are likely to try him at A+ and I’m going to predict he will have a good season and reemerge on the prospect map. The other pitcher Sampson was drafted by the Pirates last season and sent to A- ball where he pitched extremely well and was one of the few pitchers at that level to actually have a high strike out rate. I’m not really sure what to expect from him in 2013 but I think he has a chance to develop into a good pitching prospect.

Prospects To Watch

I already picked a few of the middle tier prospects who I think have a strong chance of breaking out. I didn’t say which hitters I’d specifically lean towards but if pushed I’d probably go with Jin-De Jhang and max Moroff and on the pitching side I’m expecting a big step up from Von Rosenberg. Digging a little deeper though I see a few under the radar names who could emerge as quality prospects. On the pitching side two players I like are Dalton Friend and Joely Rodriguez. Friend was drafted by the Pirates last year in the 12th round and looks like just a relief pitcher but his stuff is fairly good and he had success last year in A- so I think the Pirates will push him to A+ to see if he has success there and I’m expecting him to rather well and take on the look of a good relief prospect. Rodriguez has been underwhelming so far in his pro career but showed some positive signs in A- last year. I’d be a fool to say I’m expecting a breakout but I like some of what I saw and if the Pirates push him to A ball in 2013 I think he could put up a nice season and become the Pirates second best international pitching prospect (behind Heredia); that in itself won’t be much of an accomplishment but I do think he’ll raise his stalk this year and take on the look of a fringe prospect instead of an organizational arm. On the hitting side under the radar guys are a little harder to find because the Pirates have a lot of top prospects or second tier prospects filling spots. In all honesty I really don’t see too much there but one player I like who I think could surprise if he can get the playing time is Taylor Lewis. Lewis struggled last year in A ball and might repeat the level and if he does he should have a reasonable chance of getting some time in center field but the Pirates might push him to A+ ball and they do he’ll probably serve as a 4th outfielder there. Lewis came from a small school so he probably needs a little more development time than your typical prospect but the talent is there and given a chance I think he could turn himself into a nice prospect this season.

2013 Expectations: Upper Level Prospects

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Top Prospects

At the very top of my personal top Pirates prospects list the Pirates have a group I call the top 6 and a group I call the next 6. Two of the top 6 prospects and 1 of the next 6 prospects will be beginning the 2013 season either in AA, AAA or perhaps the major leagues. The two top prospects are of course Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. The next 6 prospect is Kyle McPherson. Cole is likely to garner the most attention and will likely start the season out in AAA but with a few adjustments and a strong start to the season he could see Pittsburgh fairly early on. Big things are expected from Cole and I fully expect we will see him in Pittsburgh come June or July. Cole may be the ace the Pirates are sorely lacking but it is not realistic to expect him to be that right out of the gate. I expect his major league time to be solid but lacking the elite quality we all will hope to see. Taillion should start the year in AA with a chance for a mid season promotion to AAA. I have high hopes that 2013 will be the year he unleashes his full arsenal and starts putting up the dominant minor league numbers we all hoped we would see. McPherson is competing for a major league rotation spot this spring but barring injuries I see him starting the year in the AAA rotation. McPherson will definitely get some time in the majors this season and I would like to see him perform well enough to earn a 2014 rotation spot. I think McPherson has the upside of a solid middle of the rotation starter and I have reasonably high hopes he will take the first steps towards establishing himself as one this season.

Hitting Prospects

The Pirates upper levels aren’t exactly brimming with hitting talent. The top prospects are probably Tony Sanchez, Adalberto Santos, Alex Dickerson, Gift Ngoepe and if he is promoted to AA Mel Rojas Jr. Sanchez I have already discussed this is a pivotal year for him to have a solid season in AAA and in the likely event of one of the Pirates two catchers suffering an injury this season I would expect Sanchez to be a candidate to be called up to the majors. My expectation is Sanchez will have a solid but not great year in AAA and struggle offensively during any brief major league stint. Santos, Dickerson and Ngoepe I could see all starting in AA this season. Santos has a case to move up to AAA but the crowded outfield will likely hold him back. Hopefully one or more of these three will show something this season that lets the Pirates believe they could be contributors to the 2014 team. My expectations aren’t really high for any of them as I expect Dickerson’s numbers to be solid but again not where they need to be for an all bat player, Santos to regress from his good contact ways and Ngoepe to show only minimal improvement with the bat. The remaining hitting prospects with some intrigue are Ivan De Jesus, Matt Curry, Clint Robinson and Carlos Paulino. De Jesus, Curry and Robinson should start the year in AAA and could be called upon to serve as major league depth this season. Of the 3 my expectations are the highest for De Jesus who I think could develop into a nice middle infield utility player.

Pitching Prospects

Outside of the top 3 pitching prospects I discussed the Pirates have a bunch of interesting arms projected to begin the season in one of the top two levels or the major leagues. Bryan Morris, Justin Wilson, Andy Oliver, Phillip Irwin and Victor Black are all very intriguing arms with some degree of chance of making the major league squad but most likely for all except Morris and possibly Wilson they will start the season in AAA. I have previously discussed Morris and Wilson so I’ll focus on the other 3. Oliver to me looks like another Justin Wilson type project who the Pirates will try to fix his control this season. Irwin has the look of a crafty righty with a know how to pitch and a good enough arsenal of pitches where he could be an effective back of the rotation starter. Black has the makings of a late inning shut down reliever but needs some fine tuning before he gets there. My expectation is that Oliver won’t show much improvement with his control and will wind up in the bullpen and the other two will show positive signs of improvement and I wouldn’t be shocked if either or both of them spent a fair amount of time in the majors this year. In AA the pitching talent is a little less deep outside of Taillon but two guys I’ll be watching are Stolmy Pimentel and Casey Sadler. With this being Pimentel’s last option year I expect the Pirates to move him to the bullpen and Sadler shown enough the Pirates are likely to keep him starting but I think they see him as a reliever long term. I don’t have high hopes for Pimentel this season but I think Sadler will show enough promise the Pirates will add him to the roster at the end of the season. There are a bunch of other semi-interesting pitching prospects in the upper levels but the 4 that catch my eye are Duke Welker, Brandon Cumpton, Tyler Waldron and Hunter Strickland. Welker and Strickland are on the 40 man roster and will need to show something to prove they belong there. I think Strickland will surprise people but my expectation is that Welker will struggle. As for the other two I think both will be converted to relief roles this spring to see if either is worth protecting from the Rule V draft this upcoming offseason. I suspect one of these two will wind up being the Pirates yearly surprise addition to the roster.

Prospects To Watch

I already mentioned that I think De Jesus, Waldron and Cumpton are a couple under the radar names to keep an eye on but I want to dig a little deeper and mention a few players who look like organizational players at this point who interest me. Jared Goedert is having a solid spring and while I don’t expect a whole lot out of him if he hits well in AAA he could get a chance in the majors and I think he has a chance to find a niche there as a good pinch hitting option. Michael Colla has flown under the radar but he has had moderate success at essentially every level. He could potential earn a chance to pitch as a middle reliever some time this season. A few other players I plan on keeping an eye on down in AA are Justin Howard, Kelson Brown and Tim Alderson. Howard is a 1st baseman with limited power but a pretty good knack for making contact. The Pirates have tried using him in the outfield some and with no real option to man 3B in AA I wouldn’t be shocked to see him trotted out there. If he can manage to be competent defensively in the outfield and third base his good contact ability could gain him some traction as a potential bench option down the road. Brown is the type of player who is solid in all aspects of the game but wonderful in none. He plays multiple positions, makes decent contact, shows a little power and is sound defensively. However he does none of those things at a high or low level. He has been fairly successful at every level and as I said with Howard the opening at 3B provides him with a chance to get some playing time and if given a chance he could surprise some people. Alderson has been written off by nearly everyone at this point and with very good reason but he is still relatively young. The last two seasons he has shown progress in converting to a reliever and a more finesse pitcher. He isn’t ever going to become what the Pirates hoped they were acquiring when they traded Freddy Sanchez for him but maybe there is enough talent left in him to develop into a marginal relief prospect. Now for the standard disclaimer my expectation of the players I discussed at length here is that they will continue on their path as organizational guys but of that group the names I noted I believe have the best chance to surprise in 2013.

2013 Expectations: Bullpen Part 2

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Due to the nature of the job the bullpen arms perform I am not going to bother predicting exact numbers for each player but instead focus on a more general idea of what my expectation is for each player. With a small sample of innings the numbers of bullpen pitchers can vary greatly without there being much variance in their actual performance. As a whole thought I’m expecting the Pirates bullpen to be roughly like the rest of the team which is basically around average. It’s tough to put a number on the bullpen but I could see them being worth roughly 1.5-2.0 WAR this season.

Bryan Morris

Morris is out of options and is an interesting enough arm that the Pirates will almost surely decide to keep him on the 25 man roster as part of the bullpen. He doesn’t really have much major league experience but he was effective in his limited sample size last year. I actually think Morris will do quite well this season and I see him as being the team’s best reliever this season which should end up giving him a chance at the closer role either later on this year or next year.

Justin Wilson

I currently have Wilson slated in for one of the final two bullpen spots but it is a decision I am constantly going back and forth on. The Pirates could certainly opt to keep him starting at AAA but at this point I’m not sure we can expect much improvement in his control. Hurdle has stated he would prefer to have two lefty relievers in his bullpen and as of right now Wilson appears to be the second best option the Pirates have. If he makes the bullpen out of spring training my expectation is that he will be shaky at first trying to get used to the position but he has the stuff where I believe he could eventually settle in as the number one lefty out of the bullpen and maybe even as a set up man.

Chris Leroux

The last bullpen job I currently have going to Chris Leroux. I won’t make it a secret I really like Leroux and I think he could make for a very serviceable reliever for the Pirates. Even with Wilson who is capable of going multiple innings I believe the Pirates will opt to carry a more traditional long reliever and Leroux fits that description. He should easily be able to give the Pirates 2-3 innings when needed and his stuff is good enough that they should be very solid innings at that. I think he’ll be decent in his time with the Pirates, if he makes the team, but I don’t see him finishing the year with the Pirates as his out of options status makes him a candidate to be waived at some point this season.

Jeanmar Gomez

I think Leroux’s main competition for the last bullpen job heading into spring training at least was Gomez. The Pirates acquired him from the Indians for minor league Quincy Latimore. Gomez is on the 40 man roster and out of options which gives him a fighting chance to make the roster but he has been fairly terrible so far this spring so I see no way he makes it. Should he end up spending time with the Pirates my expectations for him are rather low.

The Rest

The Pirates have a few more bullpen options I briefly want to mention here. Vin Mazzaro, Brooks Brown, Jose Contreas, Kyle Waldrop, Mike Zagurski, Roman Colon and several other pitchers were all brought in this offseason and are all in some capacity or another competing for time in the major leagues. All of them are essentially just standard depth relievers. If any of them should see any significant time in the majors this season my expectations would be probably around something like what Chad Qualls managed to do for the Pirates last season. In other words a whole lot of nothing.

2013 Expectations: Bullpen Part 1

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Due to the nature of the job the bullpen arms perform I am not going to bother predicting exact numbers for each player but instead focus on a more general idea of what my expectation is for each player. With a small sample of innings the numbers of bullpen pitchers can vary greatly without there being much variance in their actual performance. As a whole thought I’m expecting the Pirates bullpen to be roughly like the rest of the team which is basically around average. It’s tough to put a number on the bullpen but I could see them being worth roughly 1.5-2.0 WAR this season.

Jason Grilli

Grill enters the 2013 season as the Pirates closer which is a role he has yet to fill in his professional career. Last season and even in 2011 Grill was outstanding first in middle relief and then in set up duty for the Pirates. His strike out rate last season was amongst the best in the majors and for quite a stretch of time he seemed almost unhittable. Still truth be told Grilli isn’t a spring chicken and the drop off for baseball players can be quick and when coupled with the violate nature of relief pitchers it is certainly possible Grilli could struggle. My expectation is though that he’ll handle the closer role adequately and be an average closer for the Pirates. Grilli will likely regress from his strong 2012 but he should still have a solid 2013.

Mark Melancon

Melancon was the key piece of the Joel Hanrahan deal and is actually fairly similar to the Hanrahan the Pirates originally acquired. He is coming off a terrible 2012 but that is largely due to a few poor innings at the beginning of the season. Melancon is currently the favorite to take over the set up role and I think he can do quite well in that role. He is familiar with the NL Central and was actually rather successful in it back in 2011 when he was part of the Houston Astros. Melancon doesn’t strike a lot of batters about but his rate isn’t extremely low either and paired with his high ground ball rate he has the makings of a very solid bullpen arm. Melancon is very likely to rebound from his poor 2012 season and I could even see him getting a few save opportunities this season.

Tony Watson

Watson is the Pirates most experienced and at this point best left handed relief option. Make no mistake he isn’t a dominating pitcher but he has shown a nice ability to come in and pitch out of tight spots the last couple years and that is something that can’t be overlooked. I think the Watson we have seen the last year and a half or so is essentially what Watson is. He is a solid left handed middle reliever who should perform well during the season. My expectation is more of the same.

Jared Hughes

Hughes saw a rather alarming drop in his strike out rate last year but it was at least coupled with a lower walk rate. I have trouble believing his strike out rate won’t at least recover some in 2013 and although I’m hopeful it won’t I imagine his walk rate will also increase. Hughes is never going to be one to strike many batters out though so as long as he shows a slight improvement in his strike out rate his ground ball rate should be enough to keep him effective in 2013. The Pirates may let Hughes compete with Melancon early on for the set up role but I think he is best suited for a middle relief job where he can be called on to try and induce a groundball when one is needed. Hughes is another one like Watson who I think what we have seen is what we are going to get. I’m expecting some variation with his strike out and walk rates but I imagine his overall numbers will stay about the same.

2013 Expectations: Back Of The Rotation

Last offseason I did a 15 part preview of the Pirates upcoming seasons focusing on what I expected to see out of various positions at the major league levels, the minor levels, the coaching staff and the front office. The series went over fairly well with my readers so I have decided to bring it back for a second year. I’m not sure how many parts this year’s series will include but I will do my best to cover every key player I can think of.

Jeff Karstens

After a strange offseason which saw Karstens non-tendered and then resigned I am forced to eat some crow and give some credit to the Pirates front office for correctly analyzing the market for Jeff Karstens. I am glad to have Karstens back and I hope the Pirates use him in the role I feel he is best suited for which is as a utility pitcher, by that I mean he can pitch in any situation, starting, long relief or end of game. I expect that Karstens will be part of the Pirates rotation to start the season but assuming everyone is healthy when Liriano returns I see Karstens moving to the bullpen. If Karstens ends up making about 10 starts this season and pitching a few innings out of the bullpen I think that should suit his skill set just perfectly. Karstens isn’t a great player but he is a solid contributor who should give the Pirates 80-100 solid innings this season. I see Karstens being worth right around 1.0 WAR on the season and posting numbers around a 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.

Jeff Locke

I have Locke penciled into the starting rotation to begin the 2013 season. In my mind he has nothing left to prove at AAA and is deserving of a chance to show whether or not he has what it takes to make it as a major league starting pitcher. I believe Locke will have a very solid season for the Pirates but I doubt he makes a whole season worth of starts in the majors. The Pirates have some other pitchers they will surely want to get a look at and Locke would seem the easiest to replace in the rotation. Still I can see Locke getting a chance to impress the Pirates with about 15-20 starts which would represent a good half season of work. If he does well he will probably be a front runner for the back end of the 2014 rotation and if not he very well might be released. This is a big year for Locke and I expect he’ll hold his own. Something in the area of a 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 feels about right for Locke in 2013. All and all I have him pegged for about 18 starts and roughly 0.8 WAR.

Kyle McPherson

McPherson is Locke biggest competition for the last spot in the Pirates rotation and I think he has the higher upside of the two but at the same time he also only has 3 career starts at the AAA level which means he probably still could use a little more polish. I don’t expect McPherson to make the team out of Spring Training but I expect he’ll make quite a handful of starts and get a chance to leave an impression and claim a rotation spot for 2014. After spending a little time in AAA this season I expect he’ll do rather well after being called up. Like with all young inexperienced pitchers it is difficult to get a true read on what statistics to expect but I’m thinking something like a 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 feels about right. I think McPherson will wind up with roughly 10-12 starts and be worth just a little less than 1.0 WAR.

Jonathan Sanchez

Originally I thought Sanchez had a good chance to win the job as the second lefty out of the bullpen but as things progress I see that as less and less likely and I now expect him to start the year off in the AAA rotation essentially flipping roles with Justin Wilson. Sanchez certainly has a high upside but his lack of control severely hampers that upside. I actually don’t see Sanchez making more than 2-3 starts for the Pirates this season and I imagine any chances he’ll get he will show flashes of brilliance but also not have enough control to be anything more than mediocre. Sanchez is definitely a competitor for a rotation spot this season but I just can’t see him having much impact on the Pirates rotation in 2013.

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