Sorting Through The Arms

Yesterday I made an ill-advised final attempt at predicting what the Pirates roster would look like come Opening Day. Less than 24 hours it has been proven wrong as Bryan Morris has been optioned to AAA. Morris wasn’t having the best Spring but I still feel like he was on of the Pirates seven best options for the bullpen to start the season. Since that attempt has failed I decided to give in another go today but this time primarily focus on the pitching side since that appears to have the most interesting questions remaining.

With today’s cuts of Morris, Ivan De Jesus and Jared Goedert there remains 40 players in camp. The following 18 players I believe have a firm grasp on their roster spots.

C: Russell Martin, Michael McKenry

IF: Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes, John McDonald

OF: Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata

RHP: AJ Burnett, James McDonald, Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Marek Melancon

LHP: Wandy Rodriguez

The above roster guarantees leaves one position player spot and six pitching spots available. Of the remaining 22 players three, Charlie Morton, Francisco Liriano and Jose Contreras are definitely not going to be healthy enough to start the season so the number essentially is reduced to 19 players. Of those 19 players there are two who’s place on the roster is only dependent upon their health, Jeff Karstens and Tony Watson. This bring us down to 17 players battling for somewhere between 5-7 spots.

The one position player spot is fairly straightforward. The eight position players left in camp without a guaranteed spot on the roster are Lucas May, Carlos Paulino, Josh Harrison, Brandon Inge, Jordy Mercer, Alex Presley, Felix Pie and Brad Hawpe. May and Paulino have absolutely zero chance of making the team as they are just extra catchers. Hawpe, Pie and Presley face an uphill climb as the Pirates are likely to give this final spot to an infielder not an outfielder. So what all that reasoning leaves us with is Mercer, Inge and Harrison fighting for one spot. The acquisition of McDonald makes it less likely the Pirates will keep Mercer on the roster and Inge has been awful this Spring and has never really been fully healthy so the edge here has to go to Josh Harrison.

The pitching gets a little more complicated as there are anywhere from 4-6 spots available depending on the health of Watson and Karstens and 9 players vying for those spots. There is likely to be 1-2 spots available in the rotation depending upon the health of Karstens and the last remaining competitors for those are Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Jonathan Sanchez and Jeanmar Gomez. Of the group Gomez is probably the least deserving and can likely be quickly removed from the discussion. That leaves Locke, McPherson and Sanchez and of those 3 McPherson has has the worst Spring Training and has the least supporting performance to fall back on. That makes the favorites for the final one or two rotation spots Jeff Locke and Jonathan Sanchez. At this point I can’t imagine Karstens being ready to start at the beginning of the year so I think both players will wind up in the rotation to begin the season.

Next up is the bullpen and that is a little more crowded. There are only three locks for the bullpen in Grilli, Melancon and Hughes but Watson and even Karstens could join them there if they are healthy. Outside of those players the Pirates have the following left handers, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Wilson, and Mike Zagurski competing for spots and the following right handers, Chris Leroux, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro and Ryan Reid competing for spots. Based on spring performances and past track records I feel fairly confident that two of the vacant spots will be filled by Leroux and Wilson. If Watson and Karstens both start the season in the bullpen that will be enough arms to round out the pen but otherwise there could be one to two spots available. Right now I have no clue if these two will be healthy or even if the Pirates would be willing to have Karstens work out of the bullpen to begin the season. If Watson isn’t healthy I have to figure the Pirates carry a second lefty in Mike Zagurski and if Karstens isn’t healthy or they decide not to use him in a bullpen role and instead start him on the DL I think it likely comes down to Reid or Gomez. As things currently stand I think Reid has the upper hand in such a battle.

All of this leaves me with my first (and hopefully only) post final 25 man roster prediction of:

C: Martin, McKenry

IF: Jones, G Sanchez, Walker, Alvarez, Barmes, Jo McDonald, Harrison

OF: Marte, McCutchen, Snider, Tabata

SP: Burnett, Rodriguez, Ja McDonald, Locke, J Sanchez

RP: Grilli, Melancon, Hughes, Leroux, Wilson, Watson/Zagurski, Karstens/Reid

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