It Is Time
I’ve been an opponent of it since its inception but I can’t fight it anymore. The time has come the Pirates really have no other choice. Say it with me Pirate Twitter Nation, #FreeMattHague
I was a proponent of letting Jones and McGehee give it a go this offseason but that has failed (as with most of the rest of the offense). Help could of course come via a trade but with that being unlikely to happen in May the Pirates must give Matt Hague his chance, he has earned it. I’m not talking a bench role or platoon, give him the 1B job out right. He deserves the chance.
To make room I would send Navarro down to AAA and get him everyday at bats at 3B. Jones would become my primary RF although a platoon partner would still be needed. McGehee he would become a full time bench player. To address the platoon problem I would DFA McLouth and call up Jake Fox but even Josh Harrison or Gorkys Hernandez would suffice.
Set the lineup something like:
Tabata, LF
Walker, 2B
McCutchen, CF
Alvarez, 3B
Jones/Fox, RF
Hague, 1B
Barajas, C
Barmes, SS
I would like to see Harrison take away some playing time from Barmes at SS but you have to give Barmes a chance to figure it out. Let Harrison continue his super utility job. Really this is probably just shuffling deck chairs but its rather obvious something needs to be done. There isn’t much at AAA but there is one guy who has earned his shot.
It Is Time!
#FreeMattHague
Who Should The Pirates Target?
I’ve been on record saying I think the Pirates should look for a hot AAA bat to insert into their lineup. The question that naturally follows is who fits that description. I have accumulated a list of all AAA players with at least 100 PA who have an OPS above 800 and are between the ages 25-28. Why those ages anyone younger than 25 is likely a legit prospect and anyone older is likely a minor league veteran. Not all of the following players are applicable but it should provide a good idea of who the Pirates should be currently looking at.
| Player | Age | Aff | OPS |
| Matt LaPorta | 27 | CLE | 1.066 |
| Josh Bell | 25 | ARI | 1.047 |
| Scott Van Slyke | 25 | LAD | 1.034 |
| Roger Kieschnick | 25 | SFG | 1.020 |
| Scott Moore | 28 | HOU | 0.989 |
| Jake Elmore | 25 | ARI | 0.989 |
| Brandon Moss | 28 | OAK | 0.981 |
| Mauro Gomez | 27 | BOS | 0.947 |
| Joey Butler | 26 | TEX | 0.942 |
| Michael Taylor | 26 | OAK | 0.932 |
| Elian Herrera | 27 | LAD | 0.931 |
| Clint Robinson* | 27 | KCR | 0.928 |
| Matt McBride | 27 | COL | 0.918 |
| Corey Brown* | 26 | WSN | 0.912 |
| Ernesto Mejia | 26 | ATL | 0.908 |
| David Cooper* | 25 | TOR | 0.894 |
| Brandon Hicks | 26 | OAK | 0.891 |
| Zach Lutz | 26 | NYM | 0.879 |
| Stefan Gartrell | 28 | ATL | 0.872 |
| Max Ramirez | 27 | KCR | 0.861 |
| Tony Abreu | 27 | KCR | 0.844 |
| Bryan Petersen | 26 | MIA | 0.837 |
| Chad Huffman | 27 | CLE | 0.836 |
| Jordan Danks | 25 | CHW | 0.834 |
| Justin Henry | 27 | DET | 0.833 |
| Luis Cruz | 28 | LAD | 0.832 |
| Blake Tekotte | 25 | SDP | 0.827 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | 26 | NYM | 0.819 |
| David Lough* | 26 | KCR | 0.813 |
| Luis Valbuena | 26 | CHC | 0.813 |
| Hernan Iribarren | 28 | COL | 0.806 |
“Absolute” Baseball
There has been a trend going around these internets recently and it has got me really disturbed. People far more baseball smart than myself have started talking about baseball as a game of absolutes. These people should no better but yet they continue to use words like always and never and that is forbidden talk in baseball. I must admit though even I feel victim to it yesterday when I said there is no reason to ever root against (or feel indifference to) a player of your team getting a hit. This was in response to someone who said he didn’t care that Josh Harrison got a hit to break up the no hitter. It is inconceivable to me that someone could have felt indifference there but to each their own. I suppose though that there is a scenario where hoping for no hit makes sense. Maybe last game of the season and a hit would score a run and win a meaningless game that would prevent the Pirates from being able to draft a once in a generation player.
Anyway back on point this phenomenon is not limited to this situation. I have also seen certain Pirate bloggers, I won’t name any, say things such as you should never bunt, you should never play for one run, protection is a myth and I have them quote advanced stats as absolute answers in every situation. On the other hand when posed with real world situations these same people try to shrug off situations that counter their stances by saying or implying they aren’t applicable. The widely held idea that you should never bunt took a back seat when Hurdle earlier this season allowed McDonald to swing and he grounded into a double play. There was no one trumpeting Hurdle for not bunting but instead they were asking why he didn’t bunt. The idea that you should never play for one runs went to the wayside in the bottom of the 12th inning the other day when Josh Harrison hot the game winning single. Harrison hit a single to the outfielder and the OF threw the ball home to try and stop Barmes from scoring but Harrison did not take 2nd base on the throw meaning the Pirates were in fact playing for only one run. Again not one complaint from anyone about playing for one run. As for the protection being a myth, no one who has said this has been able to answer one simple question of mine. The question is if the person batting behind you (protection) has no impact on how a pitcher pitches you why does Rod Barajas have two IBB this season? Not one real response to this answer.
As for using advanced stats to justify every situation the belief widely held by many Pirate bloggers is that Barmes struggles should be ignored and advanced stats and advanced stats only should be the deciding factor in what play (sacrifice bunt, hit and run, etc) is called. These guys are smart enough to know that while these stats are good for 90-95% of situations they are imperfect enough that they can’t be applied to every situation without question.
Even a respected columnist for a local newspaper has gotten into the act by placing full blame for the struggling offense 100% in Huntington. He completely ignores the effect Hurdle, Ritchie and the hitters themselves have to play in the offensive woes. Barajas and Barmes have way underperformed is that on Huntington of course but 100%, no way. The players are accountable for their actions as well are the coaches and manger.
Some where along the line a lot of smart baseball people have forgotten that baseball is a game of luck, chance, maybes, this time but not next and that it is a game of absolutes like math. Anything can happen in the course of a baseball career, heck a baseball season, heck even a baseball game, what am I saying anything can happen in a baseball at bat. Every situation needs to evaluated in the moment there is no cookie cutter approach, yes the general rules I have discussed so far probably apply to at least 95%, maybe even 99.999% of situations but that isn’t an absolute. Look I know my words will have little effect on the baseball community but consider this a plea for sanity please rein it in with absolutes and instead speak in generalities such as in the majority of situations …., in nearly ever …, you probably should hardly ever …, etc but I’m begging you guys please sop it with the use of all, never and always.
Standing Up On My Soapbox
I had a different article planned for tonight but in wake of what just happened it can wait until tomorrow. The Pirates just nearly got no hit by Justin Verlander. To be fair if it would have happened there is no reason to be too upset about it I mean he is Justin Verlander after all. However what this does is put another exclamation point on just how bad the Pirates offense is. To make matters worse the cavalry, AAA has been shut out 4 consecutive games. There is no help coming, Marte and Mercer may be ready late this season but as for now there is no help anywhere in this system.
I’m not one of those guys who advocates going out and acquiring a Kevin Youkills at any cost; I mean it seriously may cost us Starling Marte to do that right now and that just isn’t worth it. However I am also not somebody who thinks this team can sit still and just hope things improve. There are serious problems with this roster and they need to be addressed.
First and foremost a bat from the outside needs to be brought in, an established major leaguer is likely out of the question unless we want to decimate the pitching staff by trading McDonald, however I think calling up the Royals and checking on Clint Robinson or calling up the Indians and checking on Matt LaPorta or calling someone else and looking for a similar player is a viable solution. There are a handful of players right now trapped in teams AAA affiliates who have limited upside (average major league starter) but who also look like decent bets to reach that upside. My preference is Robinson but I’ll take anyone in that mold. As for the cost of acquiring a guy like this, it shouldn’t be much a guy like Jeff Locke should be enough. I mean we aren’t acquiring a highly touted prospect or an above average major leaguer we are acquiring a potentially average major leaguer.
In addition there is no reason what so ever to keep McLouth on this team, he was horrible the past two seasons and is so now. DFAing him and allowing the recently recalled Gorkys Hernandez to serve as the 4th outfielder would be my preference. I haven’t given up on Barajas or Barmes and I think Barajas is turning a corner and needs to be starting he is the best we have. As for Barmes he needs to be told to take a seat for like a week and then be slowly returned to the lineup. Josh Harrison can handle shortstop in his absence. One final move I would make is calling up Fox or Clement to serve as the last bench player. Navarro can be sent down to make room and the DFAing of McLouth makes room on the 40 man (Locke makes room Robinson). I think I would pick Clement just so we have a left handed bat on our bench but Fox has the advantage of being able to platoon with Jones in RF.
So all of this would give us:
Tabata, LF
Walker, 2B
McCutchen, CF
Alvarez, 3B
Robinson, 1B
Barajas, C (Hurdle doesn’t bat 3 lefties in a row)
Jones, RF
Harrison, SS
C: McKenry
CI: McGehee (primary righty PH)
MI: Barmes (will eventually get chance to reclaim SS job unless Harrison runs away with it)
OF: Hernandez (he can start in place of Jones when a LH is on the mound)
PH: Clement (very limited where he can play so I might take Fox but I like his LH bat on the bench)
Would this be better than what we have now? I think so but really I don’t know but at the very least it would be trying something different and as of right now that would have to be a good thing.
Ok stepping down from my soapbox now. Thanks for listening.
Checking In: AAA Hitters
Its no secret the Pirates MLB offense has been struggling and when something like this happens the first place fans look and teams should look for a boost is AAA. Here is a quick look at how the players are faring so far this season.
Catchers
Eric Fryer: .497 OPS
Jose Morales: .720 OPS
Corner Infielders
Jake Fox: .816 OPS
Matt Hague: .645 OPS
Jeff Clement: .778 OPS
Nick Evans: .586 OPS
Middle Infielders
Jordy Mercer: .781 OPS
Anderson Hernandez: .383 OPS
Brian Friday: .473 OPS
Chase d’Arnaud: .657 OPS
Outfielders
Brandon Boggs: .727
Starling Marte: .780
Gorkys Hernandez: .725
Miles Durham: .367
Matt Hague, Jordy Mercer, Chase d’Arnaud, Starling Marte and Gorkys Hernandez are the players currently on the 40 man roster. I believe it is too early to call up either Marte or Mercer as I feel both need more time in AAA and d’Arnuad just returned from an injury so he probably needs a little more time in AAA. This leaves Matt Hague and Gorkys Hernandez as options.
Of the non-roster players the only ones with an OPS over 700 are Morales, Fox, Clement and Boggs. Any of the 4 could be called up but Morales and Fox would seem the most likely. So all of this leaves the Pirates with Morales, Hague, Fox and Hernandez as legitimate options to be called up. Lets take a closer look at the performance of these 4 players.
Jose Morales:
April: .235/.316/.412
May: .292/.379/.333
MLB: .289/.365/.344
AAA: .303/.367/.404
Matt Hague
April: .222/.250/.259
May: .346/.397/.385
MLB: .111/.111/.111
AAA: .305/.364/.434
Jake Fox
April: .353/.421/.765
May: .262/.333/.333
MLB: .237/.288/.425
AAA: .300/.369/.574
Gorkys Hernandez
April: .254/.357/.305
May: .294/.345/.451
AAA: .276/.332/.348
As you can see Fox has the best track record of the group but he is beginning to cool off in May and as a streaky hitter may not be worth bringing up. Hague was off to a poor start in April but is starting to hit some in May. Morales has been consistent and has a decent MLB track record so he is definitely worth a look should the Pirates consider going a different route at the catcher position. Hernandez is putting up numbers which indicate he may be able to come up and be a decent bench option but not much else.
So bottom line the Pirates don’t have much help at AAA right now. Morales could come up and replace McKenry but the difference would probably be slight. Hague or Fox could come up and replace one of Navarro or Harrison and that would probably improve the offense on the bench slightly but again the difference is slight. Hernandez could come up and replace McLouth if the Pirates opt to DFA him but that would make the Pirates bench completely right handed and not really upgrade the offense at all.
Alex Presley
I’m not sure what has happened to Alex Presley he went from being the everyday left fielder and lead off hitter to riding the bench more often than not. I think his future is as a very good 4th outfielder but it is amazing how quickly the Pirates have changed attitudes on him. Personally I think he should be in the lineup receiving more playing time as I see Navarro as a good alternative to Barmes but not Presley. However if the Pirates are going to keep using Presley in a 4th outfield role they really have no need for McLouth. At this point McLouth is worthless off the bench and replacing him on the roster with a bat like Jake Fox makes a lot of sense if Presley is going to be viewed as solely a 4th outfielder going forward. My suggestion is that McGehee although he hasn’t looked great would be better with consistent playing time so in my suggestion he takes over as the regular 1B and a Jones/Fox platoon moves out to RF.
Again I am not advocating this move but rather saying that it makes a whole lot of sense under the assumption that Presley remains as the 4th outfielder. Under my suggestion the lineup could look like”
Tabata, LF
Walker, 2B
McCutchen, CF
Alvarez, 3B
McGehee, 1B
Jones/Fox, RF
Barmes (Navarro), SS
Barajas, C
Personally I want to see Navarro at SS but realistically it will be Barnes so that is why I put the SS position as such. The bench would look like:
McKenry, C
Fox/Jones, 1B/OF
Harrison, MI
Presley, OF
Navarro, Ut
If McGehee fails at 1B one of Hague, Clement or Evans could be called up and given a chance or Presley could be reinserted in the OF moving Jones back to 1B. As for everyone’s favorite B duo, Barmes and Barajas, Jordy Mercer is looking strong in AAA and could be a Major League option some time in June and July and Jose Morales, who has a decent Major League track record, is playing well and could be a good catching option in a matter of a few weeks.
Hitting?!?!
I’m really getting concerned with this complete lack of offense. We have now completed roughly 20% of the season and we have scored 89 runs. At this pace the Pirates will score 451 runs and that is beyond awful its nearly inconceivable. At this point there are no fixes, the Pirates just have to work with what they have. Tabata and Walker are slowly looking like they are coming around but Pedro now looks like he is regressing. McCutchen has been good and the production from 1B has been reasonably good but Presley is struggling and the Pirates are getting nothing from the C or SS positions. In reality there is no help in AAA for any of these positions outside of possibly Marte replacing Presley. I suppose d’Arnaud or Mercer could step up and help at SS and Fryer or Morales could do the same at catcher but neither seems likely.
The bench isn’t even really producing. McLouth has been awful, McKenry has shown himself to be only marginally better than Barajas this season, McGehee started strong but is fading and the duo of Harrison and Navarro has been unimpressive thus far. The Pirates could opt to bring up a player like Hague, Morales, Evans, Fox or Hernandez to help the bench but I don’t think that helps much. Don’t get me wrong right now I probably would like to see Fox called up and one of Navarro/Harrison sent down just because I see them as redundant.
I could sit here and suggest tons of move and there are a handful I would actually like to see but in reality none will make a huge difference. The offense is going to have to turn it around with what is here and at this point I have serious doubts about their ability to do so. Which is disturbing because this team has the pitching to at least be competitive even with average hitting however with an offense that scores fewer than 3 runs per game I think they will struggle to get to 70 wins and there is more talent here than that.
I hope this team proves me wrong but as of now I can’t see the rest of this season going well. Hopefully the offense as it is or with maybe a few tweaks will find itself and start producing at an acceptable level because this can be a good team. Come on Bucco Bats turn this season around.
Barmes and Barajas
It goes without saying that Barmes and Barajas have both been disappointments so far this season. Both players were brought in not to be black holes in the lineup and to provide solid defense, to date neither of those things are true. Barajas is supporting an OPS+ of 23 and Barmes an OPS+ of 30. As for the defense Barmes has already committed 5 errors and Barajas has looked anything but stout. The question now is should the Pirates continue trotting them out there or should they go an alternative route and if so what? Before exploring that question though I am going to look at a few other choices the Pirates had this offseason.
Catcher
Rod Barajas 23 OPS+
Ramon Hernandez 113 OPS+
Geovany Soto 29 OPS+
Chris Iannetta 124 OPS+
Chris Snyder 32 OPS+
Ryan Doumit 70 OPS+
Francisco Cervelli .529 OPS in AAA
Note: At the beginning of the offseason I advocated the Pirates trying to trade for a catcher because the options on the free agent market were rather barren. I recognized at the time with Sanchez still in line as the catcher of the future the chances of a trade happening were slim. At the time Iannetta and Soto were probably the most talked about candidates and I favored Iannetta but realized it was likely a long shot. Cervelli emerged as a candidate late in the offseason I actually believe in a rumor for Garrett Jones but he is one I would gladly pass on. The top free agent available was Hernandez but it was thought a 1st round comp pick would be required. The only chance the Pirates realistically had at retaining Doumit was picking up his option and that wasn’t and shouldn’t happen. That left Barajas and Snyder as the two free agent options I endorsed. I wasn’t thrilled about either choice but something needed to be done. The Pirates choose Barajas and while I wasn’t thrilled with the choice it was probably the best catcher free agent move they could have made at the time.
Shortstop
Clint Barmes 30 OPS+
Ronny Cedeno 123 OPS+ (16 PA)
Ramon Santiago 23 OPS+
Note: I admit there are probably more options I am omitting but these 3 I recall as being the most prevalent. When the offseason began I wanted Cedeno’s option picked up because again the free agent market wasn’t good but unlike the catcher position I did not advocating trading for a player because a long term solution at shortstop is tough to come by and with d’Arnaud, Mercer and to some extent Harrison and Navarro in the fold I felt the team would be able to in a short time muster up a respectable shortstop option. Once Cedeno’s option was declined and the Santiago rumors arose I felt he would be a good choice basically a cheaper Cedeno who could hold the shortstop spot down until someone else emerged. I will admit though that I felt if the Pirates wanted to pursue a better option at shortstop the best fit would be Clint Barmes (I saw Reyes and Rollins as unrealistic) and I wasn’t terribly upset with the signing although I did not like the two year deal.
As you can see that at the time of the signings the Barajas and Barmes signings were understandable albeit not spectacular and as of right now they both look like pretty bad pickups. I still hold some faith out for them, more for Barmes than Barajas actually and I still can see why the Pirates signed them but at this point it is tough not to argue that the Pirates should pursue different alternatives. Namely McKenry and Navarro. Now look I’m not calling for either of these players to assume a full time starting role but having them a few starts away from each player wouldn’t be a bad idea. I say play Navarro at short about 3 out of 10 games and McKenry at catcher 4 out of 10 games.
Neither players has much of a sample size this year but I will put together a short resume for each.
Michael McKenry
2012: 164 OPS+ (25 PA)
2011: 66 OPS+
AAA: .760 OPS (495 career PA)
Yamaico Navarro
2012: 98 OPS+ (24 PA)
2011: 77 OPS+
AAA: .797 OPS (309 career PA)
OK, I’ll admit those aren’t great resumes but with the two struggling veteran starters these two younger players have earned a chance to play at least 2-3 time a week. Hopefully the Pirates will see this and try to this to see if 1) Navarro and McKenry have a future with this team and 2) To see if it will jump start Barmes or Barajas. As of now though Something has to be done about the black hole that are the 7 and 8 spots in the Pirates order.
Recapping the Month of April
In short the month of April for the Pirates can be summed up by saying great pitching, poor hitting but I’m going to look a little deeper than that. The Pirates faced a very difficult April schedule, toughest in the majors I believe and while their 10-12 record isn’t great it isn’t terrible considering the level of competition they faced and the complete lack of hitting the team had. The Pirates had a nice month of April and we can look forward to a better month of May.
We can take more from this past month than just the team’s performance though
- Alvarez and Tabata after starting out slowly heated up and hopefully showed us a sign of things to come
- McCutchen and Walker showed a complete lack of power and since that is uncharacteristic we should expect an improvement from them hopefully furthering improving the offense
- Presley is developing into a nice leadoff hitter and the next step in the development is to find some power
- McGehee and Jones have the look of a competent platoon and while an upgrade at 1B would still be welcome the position has a good placeholder
- The free agent signings of Barmes and Barajas are making the bottom of the order a big hole and the Pirates need to find a way to improve the 7 and 8 spots in the lineup
- The bench has a good mixture of players and while I would like another power bat on it over one of Harrison or Navarro it does show good versatility and has been somewhat productive when called upon
- The foursome of Burnett, Bedard, McDonald and Morton are looking like a strong rotation
- With Grilli and Cruz handling the set up duties and with Hanrahan as the closer the back of the bullpen looks strong
- The rest of the pitching staff is not strong but it is good enough for the support role they are in. Watson has been effective as the left handed reliever but I think he could use some help. Lincoln has been surprisingly good in his long relief role although I still want to see him starting. Resop and the now demoted Meek have been hit a little bit but as the 6th and 7th guys in the pen that is fine.
Overall this Pirate team is looking good, not great or playoff worthy but good. There is no reason even if the pitching regresses some that this team should not be able to hang close to 500. I think this is honestly the best Pirate team we have seen in a while and while that is not saying much it is a start and hopefully better years are ahead.
